GiveMeaBJ's NFL Thursday (9/10)

[GiveMeaBJ]

Steelers ML -250 (Matchbook) to win 2 Units
I have never in my gambling career wagered on a football moneyline with worse odds then -140. But, after thinking about it a bunch I really think this is underpriced. Defending SuperBowl Champions play extremley well in their home opener in Week 1. They have all won the past 9 years. I would play the -6 but the Steelers ability to absolutley dominate and win 10-6 scares me. This moneyline play is not a normal play for me and probably one I won't make again. This is for a special situation (SB Champs opening at home) and I feel like in this situation their is value as I have no doubts the Steelers win this game.

I am not expecting the Titans to be as good as they were last year. They lost Albert Haynesworth which in my opinion is the biggest free agent loss to any team in the off-season. They have an aging Kerry Collins who I am not expecting to have another year as successful as last year. Call me dumb but this is my play.
Steelers 17, Titans 10

[BGboothA]

I don't disagree with you at all. I am on PIT -5.5 and seriously had the same thoughts you had, I went with the spread.

[GiveMeaBJ]

I don't disagree with you at all. I am on PIT -5.5 and seriously had the same thoughts you had, I went with the spread.

Yea, I know this is a losing proposition in the long run but this is probably the only time I do it this year. Anyone have numbers on how often the spread of -6 comes into play?

[foak32]

They say that if the line is 3 or below you dont even consider it. They also say that you should always bet on the team that you think you should win. I am not sure if I am correct with this statement but I believe only once in the last eight years have more favorites won and covered than dogs. Week 1 is usually a dog week and look what happen in college this week.

I think without big Albert in the middle the Steelers will be able to run against the Titans and look for Pitt to stack the box all night and make Gage and Washington beat them. Remember the Pitt D has practiced against Washignton for years and he is the #1 option for Tenn on the outside. Pitt 24-13.

[phillip]

I'm thinking that Pitt wins this 28-14. I'm talking Pitt -6 and the over 35.

[GiveMeaBJ]

They say that if the line is 3 or below you dont even consider it. They also say that you should always bet on the team that you think you should win. I am not sure if I am correct with this statement but I believe only once in the last eight years have more favorites won and covered than dogs. Week 1 is usually a dog week and look what happen in college this week.

I think without big Albert in the middle the Steelers will be able to run against the Titans and look for Pitt to stack the box all night and make Gage and Washington beat them. Remember the Pitt D has practiced against Washignton for years and he is the #1 option for Tenn on the outside. Pitt 24-13.

Yea, I know the rule of thumb about betting moneylines only if the line is 3 or below. I have never even looked at moneylines for favorites on any line over -2 in my time sportsbetting. So I thought to myself am I doing this just to get action on opening night? I don't think I am though. This is a one time play based on the defending SB champions history of winning the opener.

I hear Washington might not play. I also think Albert Haynesworth is an epic loss for this defense. It changes the whole gameplan on defense.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Pittsburgh/Tennessee Under 17.5 2H to win 1 Unit

[GiveMeaBJ]

2-0 (+3.00 Units)

Hines Ward, jesus.

[BGboothA]

Thank you thank you thank you....so after some consideration and reading of your thread...I already had a 2 unit bet on Pit -5.5. The more I thought about it, I also put a 5 unit play on the PIT ML. So I ended with a positive night. I know it wasn't the most logical way to go about it... but hey it worked out this time..duh

[RICHIE801]

Great call. I took Tenn +7.5 and was real tempted to take Shittsburgh ML, but I thought Tenn had a chance to win straight up and did, eiher way we both cashed, like P in 98' make em say UHHH!

[GiveMeaBJ]

Thank you thank you thank you....so after some consideration and reading of your thread...I already had a 2 unit bet on Pit -5.5. The more I thought about it, I also put a 5 unit play on the PIT ML. So I ended with a positive night. I know it wasn't the most logical way to go about it... but hey it worked out this time..duh

Glad I could contribute. GB this Sunday I am hammering with you!

[GiveMeaBJ]

Great call. I took Tenn +7.5 and was real tempted to take Shittsburgh ML, but I thought Tenn had a chance to win straight up and did, eiher way we both cashed, like P in 98' make em say UHHH!

Real glad we could both get the cash. Have to be honest at no point in the game was I real nervous about my ML bet. I was so confident Pitt would get the dub.

[RICHIE801]

Real glad we could both get the cash. Have to be honest at no point in the game was I real nervous about my ML bet. I was so confident Pitt would get the dub.

Nice. Also love GB this Sunday.