Kroyrunner's Week 1 NFL Thread

kroyrunner89 · 09-09-09, 12:54 AM

First play: 49ers +6.5

rezkoness69 · 09-09-09, 12:58 AM

ah, yes love this play, however you should wait. I believe the closing number will be a lot better then this. I'm guessing you'll be able to get 7.5 by saturday night.

kroyrunner89 · 09-09-09, 01:07 AM

It'll be interesting to see what happens with this line, I don't like placing bets this early in the week but this one just jumps out at me so much I had to post it haha

bombCanada · 09-10-09, 08:50 AM

Mr. Kroy, please distinguish between a system play and an official play.

thank you.

kroyrunner89 · 09-10-09, 11:43 PM

Originally posted by bombCanada

Mr. Kroy, please distinguish between a system play and an official play.

thank you.

Hey Bomb, I'd be happy to clear this up. As you can see, I have the 3 types of plays, personal, system, and official. Let me break them down one at a time and explain my reason for tracking separately.

Personal Play: My system does not kick off until Week 8 due to there not being enough statistical data. Until I have my system running, all plays you will see are personal plays. I am tracking these separately because I have never actually kept a record of how well I can pick without the help of a system, so I'd like to see how good my true handicapping ability really is. Also, by making others aware that a play is a personal play, they may choose to go a little lighter on it since I do not have proven results in this area at this time. Once my system kicks off, I will continue posting personal plays that my system does not agree with for one reason or another.

System Play: System plays will be any play that my system recommends that I decide not to make an official play for one reason or another. This is again to track how good of a job I'm doing at picking out losers, or to see if I'm leaving a lot of winners unplayed. Also, if you were to see a system play that agreed with a play you loved to begin with, you may be more comfortable betting it.

Official Play: I have a certain method I've taken to in determining what my official plays are. Basically, I'll spend a good chunk of the week capping the games myself and figuring out where I stand on each of them. Then, I run my system and see which system plays are plays I happen to have liked on my own. Basically, an official play is a combination of a personal play and a system play, which I believe makes it the most likely to come through. Last season's 57-36-2 record was all official plays. This year my goal is to hit 67% with my official plays.

Basically, keeping the separate records is to hold myself accountable. I want to do the best job I possibly can this season, and to see how well I'm doing at narrowing down system plays or handicapping the games with no system help is an important way for me to see where I need to improve.

I suggest you do not blindly tail me or put a ton of weight in what I say these first few weeks, make me prove myself first! I wish you the best this coming season Bomb, I hope I can help anyone who chooses to follow me profit!

bombCanada · 09-11-09, 09:15 AM

Thank you for the thorough explanation.

I appreciate your calmer than usual more professional than usual demeanor.

Good luck to you. I shall watch with interest!

kroyrunner89 · 09-13-09, 01:08 AM

Week 1 Plays:

San Francisco 49ers +6

I've seen absolutely nothing out of the Arizona first string offense or defense this preseason to give me a good feeling about them heading into the season, and SF always seems to play Arizona tough. Last season when SF played in Arizona they nearly stole one outright, having a chance at a touchdown in the final seconds to win it. They squandered the opportunity with poor clock management, but all the pieces are still there for them to do it again. Had this game been played last season, when Arizona was clicking, my system still would have picked SF +6. I think that Arizona is faltering right now, and SF is on the rise compared to last year, making this pick that much sweeter. I wouldn't be surprised to see SF win this game, but I'll take them at +6 and expect at least the cover.

Atlanta Falcons -4

Atlanta is just a different team when they play at home. They had their fair share of struggles on the road last year, but they scored almost 10 ppg more at home, with an average margin of victory of 10 pts. Atlanta has looked spectacular all preseason, and although Miami was a pretty good road team, I think they're much more likely to take a step back this year. I'll count on Atlanta to win this game by a TD or more and cover.

Arizona/SF UNDER 46

This pick goes along with some of my comments in the SF pick. Arizona's offense is not looking good, and the possibility that Boldin sits out makes this play look that much sweeter. SF is a run first team, and should try to attack with Gore and wind some clock to keep Warner off the field. Also, you can bet they'll look to take Warner's weapons away and force Arizona to come out and beat the with the run. In order for this total to go over, you figure we'd have to see 6 tds and a couple field goals between the two teams. I'd be shocked if these teams found the end zone 6 combined times, so I think the under is the obvious play.

Green Bay Packers -4

The Packers have looked very impressive this preseason, with every aspect of their game looking great. Although the Bears finally have a capable QB at the helm, he still doesn't have anybody to throw the ball to. The Bears' defense is also quite overrated in my opinion, and simply will not be able to handle Green Bay's passing attack. This game could get pretty high scoring, and the Bears won't be able to keep up.

New Orleans Saints -13.5

Although I'm a bit hesitant to take such a large favorite, all the signs point to a Saints blowout win. Last season the Saints absolutely pounded Detroit when they played them, and should have no problem solving the defense again. The only question that I have is whether or not Detroit can keep up with the Saints' scoring. With Stafford getting the start, he should be able to give the Lions some life on offense. However, one could argue that he didn't have a single great preseason game, and I like the chances of the Saints picking off a pass or two. With those kinds of mistakes and the New Orleans' improved defense, I see a blowout victory.

Saints/Lions OVER 48

This pick serves a couple of purposes. First of all, I think there is a good chance that we see a 38-20 type of game and the total goes over easily. I have no doubt in my mind that the Saints will put up points on their end, the question is whether or not the Lions will be able to score as well. In my mind, if the total were to go under it would be because of the Lions' short comings, and the Saints -13.5 bet should have been a winner. If the total were to go over, the Lions put up their share of points then, and they may have covered the spread. I can't see the combination of this over and the Saints -13.5 bet doing any worse than going 1-1, I'll gladly eat the juice if that happens. I think the smart play here is to take the over as well, and you're looking at a good chance of both plays winning, with a worst case scenario of 1 losing.

Good luck Week 1 everyone!!!

MrMonkey · 09-13-09, 01:28 AM

Good luck Kroy! Liking Atlanta -4, GBay -4, SF +6, Minny -4, Houston -4, just wondering if 1 point buying would make sense with the games I play to at least push and not lose on key numbers? Also playing more on Carolina with everyone playing!

kroyrunner89 · 09-13-09, 01:40 AM

Originally posted by MrMonkey

Good luck Kroy! Liking Atlanta -4, GBay -4, SF +6, Minny -4, Houston -4, just wondering if 1 point buying would make sense with the games I play to at least push and not lose on key numbers? Also playing more on Carolina with everyone playing!

I'd be cautious with the buying points... I really don't like doing it since you have to have a much higher win % to profit. I know it's nice to have your ass covered, but I don't think it's worth it for the few times this year it'll make a difference for you. I know my winning % will be there at the end of the year, so I can take a bad beat here or there and get away with it just fine

MrMonkey · 09-13-09, 01:47 AM

Thanks Kroy for the advice. Just weird so many games in one week coming up at that number.

kroyrunner89 · 09-13-09, 03:59 PM

3-0 start to the afternoon with the SF/ARI game unfolding as I'd hoped so far... could be a very good weekend

MrMonkey · 09-13-09, 04:03 PM

Great start Kroy!

Eagles game still has me scratching my head! Can't believe I was so wrong on that one! Gotta regroup!

kroyrunner89 · 09-13-09, 06:30 PM

looks like a 5-0 start! hopefully the packers can make it a perfect weekend!

tongo · 09-13-09, 06:43 PM

nice job sir!

TdeMore007 · 09-13-09, 06:45 PM

awesome man u had some great picks all over the packers

bombCanada · 09-13-09, 10:40 PM

Nice work Mr. Kroy. I hit you 1 pt per pick above.

kroyrunner89 · 09-13-09, 11:14 PM

haha thanks bomb canada! absolutely amazing weekend, thank god the packers came through! mighta been a bit lucky of a cover but i'm sure it'll even out along the way! i may post a play for tomorrow night's game, i'm still mulling it over. if i choose to i'll post it up sometime tomorrow afternoon!

corliss · 09-14-09, 01:24 AM

thanks for the picks man, so great.

kroyrunner89 · 09-14-09, 12:38 PM

After some consideration I've decided I will not be making any plays on tonight's games. I have absolutely no read on the Oakland vs. San Diego game, so obviously that's one I'm staying away from. The other game, Patriots vs. Bills, is a much tougher one for me to avoid. Over 47 is a very tempting play for me, but I just don't feel like I know enough about these teams yet to go ahead and make it a play. In the end, I just have too many unanswered questions so I'm going to pack in the 6-0 week and get to it next weekend!