Question for any NFL prop-bettor

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Basic question: On O/U player props, do you find your win rate to be higher on:

1) Overs?
OR
2) Unders?

There's a basic point to my question. Normally, one looks at a player's recent average and adjusts for opponent to generate a Projection.

That's a good start. What about the Probability of injury?

Guys like Deebo/McCaff/Fields got injured mid-game. NFL is a brutal sport. Probability (injury in a given game) has to be 3 to 5%.

If you play an Over...and your player gets knocked out, that Over is likely a loser. Anyway, does a good NFL prop player have personal O/U results they'd like to share?

If I was going to play these, I'd look at a guy who is performing well. His O/U gets pumped up a bit. If he has any track record of injury, I'd take a long look at the Under.

Defense might defend him well. And the chance at an Injury is a free-roll.

[The J-Dizzle]

I mean I believe that people WANTS to play overs, they are just more fun. I think that the bookies know this too.

And, just like you said, the X-factor is injuries. But I mean you can for sure look at players that generally miss a couple of games each season and bet under on them.

So in general I think that Unders is the way to go, but it's too boring

[Noles1992]

Another factor that has cost me is if it’s a blowout game that player is most likely sidelined and the extra few rushing, receiving, yards catches or attempts goes to the under players for sure. This happens obviously happens more in college than the NFL. Just my two cents

[ChuckyTheGoat]

I mean I believe that people WANTS to play overs, they are just more fun. I think that the bookies know this too.

And, just like you said, the X-factor is injuries. But I mean you can for sure look at players that generally miss a couple of games each season and bet under on them.

So in general I think that Unders is the way to go, but it's too boring

Trust me. It won't be boring when that $$ Train rolls in.

1) Noles makes a good point, too.
...If player hasn't gone over his # and the team is rolling, you're at risk of him sitting the L10 minutes.

2) I really think this idea of seeking out value Unders has some logic.

Also, if you listen to any of the radio Talking Heads, how often do they say "take Player X over"?
...It's very easy to do that. If they've been playing well, you likely don't have a bargain price.
...And they can always get knocked out of the game. It happens.