FOUND IT going crazy but huge technical data proven in SUPER BOWLS

[OldBill]

it was over at c ***S page 9 nfl betting and now wtf cant ignore it


EXPECTED WIN MARGIN ........................................ ........

each team gets so many points based on the one stat has the highest correlation to pts scored through the playoffs.

Eagles 10.7 pts left
Eagles games w/Hurts 18.35, big difference with Hurts in the game
KC 54 pts left, which means if they win it could be big.


this method doesn't tell us who will win just how much they could win by.
Based on the info thus far Eagles would be the play so now that we determined this around 10-11 pt (give or take a few pts) or so win can be reasonable expected, w/Hurts could be 13-14 to 17 or 20 pts win.


last season both teams were out of pts so did not apply

2020 Bucs had 33.92 pts left suggesting a big blowout was possible and they won 31-9. both teams had pts left so one needed to first determine the winner

2019 method did lose, KC out of pts while 9ers had plenty left

2018 Pats had 6.73 pts left and won by 10, both teams with pts left

2017 this was a perfect year as Pats were out of pts and should lose by 3.86 pts , Eagles had 8.44 pts left and won by 8, falling almost exactly halfway between

2016 Pats with 7.85 pts left, Falcons used all their pts and should lose by 5.52, Pats won by 6 again almost halfway between both teams results.

2015 Panthers were out of pts and should lose by 9 pts and they lost by 14, Broncos had many pts left 45.3 suggesting a big blowout that never happened but out-come was pretty close to Panthers result.

2014 method lost Pats had no pts left Seahawks many pts.
2013 Seahawks was the play based on all the info they had 35 pts left and won by 43-8 or 35 pts.
2012 surprise WC round team

2011 Suprise WC round team
2010 Packers had 10.06 pts left and won by 6, both teams with pts left
once you determine who will win you can get pretty close to the margin of victory many times following this method.
I remember playing a alternate line laying like 7 or so pts with Bucs over KC using this method.

[OldBill]

PLAYOFF ONLY POWER RATING I ........................................ ........
Eagles -3.8 over KC
17-7-1 ATS (70%) in all games since 2000 not including surprise WC round teams
when both def-adjusted PR I and playoff only are on the same team ATS --- 10-4-1 ATS
3-4 ATS past 7 years (42.9%)
when recent play falls behind the longer term average makes for a very good play as all these methods tend to regress going both down then back up. prior to the past 7 years method was an off-the-hook, incredible 14-3-1 ATS (80.6%) but unsustainable.
play is on the Eagles

[OldBill]

Defense-adjusted POWER RATING I ........................................ ..............
Eagles defense is 4.18 pts better then KC defense. Eagles receive 4.18 additional pts onto PR I
Teams with better defenses by 3 pts or better --- 5-1 ATS, so to put the defenses in proper perspective, a difference this large has only happen 6 times since 2000 not including surprise WC Round teams.
from 1977 to 1999 --- 7-2 ATS when 3 pts better on defense. only 9 times from 77 to 99, 22 years

Eagles -9.14 over KC

defense-adjusted PR I ...................................
20-8 SU on any lean
12-6 ATS w/6 pt diff to closing line
4-2 ATS w/3-5.99 diff to closing line

play is on the Eagles

[OldBill]

1-1 ATS, won 1.5 units
According to PR I KC out-played Bengals and should of won by 11.09 pts not 3. Don't be fooled by that score. KC was held to FG's instead of getting TD's and with a 7 pt lead and driving into Bengals territory and a chance to go up 2 scores I think at start of 4th but then Mahomes has an unforced error, mis-handling the ball, fumbles and Bengals recover and score a TD tp tie the game.
Bengals did nothing to cause that fumble, game was not as close as it appears.
Eagles on the other hand should of won by 7.33 pts not 24, another mis-leading final score. Hurts had a lower QBPR then 9ers did with a 4th stringer taking most of the pass atts. But one of the problems with QBPR is it gives to much credit for passing TD's, what makes the difference if you pass or run for a TD ? They count the same.
Eagles were incredible at rushing TD's getting 31 in regular season compare that to 9ers 16, no contest. Eagles had 4 rushing TD's in this game.
Passing TD's reward teams with a weakness many times because they choose to pass because they can't run, like Marino did and ARod as well.
Troy Aikmen had low passing TD's therefore a lower QBPR because they had a monster offensive line and Emmit with many rushing TD's. That's a choice based on team strength which QBPR does not measure, and why I may develop my own QBPR someday.

Point being if we adjusted Hurts for this he rates far, far better but even then Eagles win only by 12.13, still not close to final score.

This favors KC in the SB.

[OldBill]

Nice weekend for KC backers Eagles left over points vs. Chiefs leftover points difference I'm going assume leans strongly for KC in that metric of yours??Eagles about 10, KC with many over 30, but remember, this method does not tell us who will win , only how many pts if they do win.

method does not favor the team with most pts left.

[stevenash]

Bill, I love you but you need to step away from the keyboard from time to time and get some air.

I hear the big yellow thing in the sky is called the sun.

[OldBill]

always out side steve wife never gets out sunshine provides vitamins for our bodies real it does and the old ozone thing is done pretty safe to stay in sun but fair skin peeps need sunblock


hey if it's like hi 80's or 90's stay in the shade dont be brain daed

[OldBill]

bumpy i never knew about this

[DiggityDaggityDo]