A month early but what the heck. Based solely on 2021 data (minus position upgrades and downgrades), these projections are really iffy, and I’ll be posting weekly updates.
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Without fresh numbers, not a lot to build on last sear’s data, so these new projections based a bit on eyeballing preseason games. I may need to glasses but I liked Philly and Pittsburgh, while Dallas and the Giants seem to be going backwards, and Houston, Seattle and the Pats will be hunting for No.1 in next year’s draft.
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Sometimes numbers lie. Carolina’s big jump over the Browns (nearly 2 points), all because Mayfield was plugged in as the starter, is the result of Mayfield’s slight statistical edge over Darnold. I like Baker, but IMO, he’s not that big of an upgrade. On the other hand, if I plug in Pickett over Trubisky, for the Steelers game against the Bengals, the model is so in love with the “rookie’s” college numbers, it actually has them in a dead tie – MOV 0.00 - but I wouldn’t buy that either. The Falcons’ huge jump (4.6 points!) over the Saints is the result of a correction to a data goof up I made early on, and the preseason play of Marcus Mariota. Injuries account for the rest of the schedule’s changes, with – no doubt – more to come.
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Can’t bear watching my Red Sox play, so with time on my hands, played with some numbers, and came up with this. Much of this is based on last season’s data, but with upgrades/downgrades as I see them. Wouldn’t take those win/loss totals to the bank, however, as there was a hefty dose of subjected input involved, plus a few service sites and their projections.
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No surprise, the model likes favorites (11), but is solid on road teams (10). We’ll see how the lines change and starter movement goes.
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one thing i figured out long ago when i it's all greek to me fawwwwwwwk it i have no idea what limper line is all about look like someones guessing what point spreads should be besides what odds makers put upComment -
Not so much Greek as Hindu–Arabic, but you’re not far from wrong. It takes 3 full weeks of data, before the model runs on its own, but prior to week 4, the weekly projections are based on last season’s data in a declining percentage, plus my numerical input (basically, guesswork) based on roster changes (injuries, upgrades, and downgrades) for each team.Comment -
Not many changes from last week, but there are still notable injury questions yet to be resolved. I’ll post updates early Thursday. GLTA
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GLTA
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The dropping line on Thursday let the model claim a win (by a hair) it didn’t deserve, but it has always lost more of these than it won over the season, so we won’t throw it back in the water.
Suddenly the model has flipped to dogs, just when I started liking favorites. I think picking Jacksonville to cover is a historical first.
GLTA
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