Rich Crew: Bears +7 vs Colts

[SBRforum Staff]

Bears +7 vs Colts

Game Time: 2/4/2007 6:30:00 PM
By: Rich Crew

http://www.who2beton.com

Behind their running game and defense, the Chicago Bears and the points are the play in the NFL championship versus the Indianapolis Colts.

Despite going 13-3 in the regular season, the Bears find themselves pretty big underdogs. Chicago has played very well vs. good opponents this season and didn't just fatten up on a bunch of softies.

The Bears are 5-1 straight up vs. Top 10 scoring offenses this year, their only blemish coming against the Patriots. That was also their 3rd-consecutive road game. They were also 6-1 straight up vs. Top 10 passing offenses, losing only a meaningless Week 17 game vs. the Packers. They will go with a lot of Cedric Benson and Thomas Jones on the ground as the Colts allowed 173 yards per game in the regular season. While the Colts have held their playoff opponents to under a 100 yards rushing in each game, we feel the Bears will pound the ball all game and won't be deterred if they are stopped early. They are 10-0 straight up this year against run defenses that ranked 17th or worse.

QB Rex Grossman has been put under a microscope all season and has taken an awful lot of heat for his play this year. But consider this: He led the NFL in games with a passer rating of 100 or better and finished the year on a high note, going over the century mark in Weeks 14, 15 and 16. He has also played well in the postseason, throwing only one interception and that deflected off a receiver.

Indy still has a dangerous passing game (second in the league) and will try to make good use of WRs Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark. The Bears' two worst games vs. the pass came when starting CB Nathan Vasher was out, but they are healthy in the defensive backfield save for SS Mike Brown who has been out the last half of the season. The Bears should be able to contain the running game and they will get pressure on Peyton Manning. They will look to pressure him up the middle but have a terrific rookie DE in Mark Anderson, who had 12 sacks this season.

Chicago is 7-1 straight up on the road this season and is very comfortable away from the friendly confines of Soldier Field. Indy was only 5-4 straight up on the road this season and prefer the faster surface of artificial turf. We like the Bears defense to keep Manning under control and for the running game to give Grossman a chance to make plays when the Colts aren't automatically expecting a pass.

Play: Bears +7

[slacker00]

Very good write up. Good information, even though a lot was pulled from regular season, which was a long time ago. I'd put more emphasis on what was done in the post season. But, good info on Grossman, I am down on him, but maybe he isn't all that bad.

Still, how are the Bears going to magically be able to run on the Colts when the Pats/Ravens/Chiefs couldn't do it? I know the Bears running game is strong, but not any stronger than the teams the Colts have already handled in the playoffs. I still contend that Grossman isn't Brady/McNair/Green as well. The Bears offense is not going to be any better against Indy's defense than any of these teams. Same goes for the Bears defense. The Bears have a very strong defense, but it isn't better than the Pats or Ravens.

The trump card for the Bears is special teams! The Bears can get some good field position from kick runbacks or maybe even a TD. I expect the Bears special teams to outperform the Colts, but to what level is uncertain. A special teams TD definitely would change the game.

Turnovers will also be key. Barring a special teams bloodbath by the Bears (which is reasonable), the Bears will absolutely need a 2 turnover differential to beat the Colts, IMO. The Bears offense will need to be nearly flawless as far as turnovers, and the Bears defense will have to create at least 2 turnovers. Seems like one of the announcers during the NFC championship said that the Bears defensive coordinator expects them to create 3 turnovers per game. Wow. But, it's realistic. The Bears offense is just that limited that they have to rely on that kind of turnover output from the defense. I see the Ravens the same way. Look what happened to the Ravens against the Colts when they failed to manufacture defensive turnovers. The game really wasn't that close in the end. The Bears MUST manufacture defensive turnovers, or they have no chance. That isn't true of the Colts defense. That's a lot to ask a defense, albeit the Bears defense is up to the task, albeit against a juggernaut of a precise offense!

[quik2]

The Pats avg. almost 6 yds per rush against the Colts =D

[hanco21]

I have been thinking about that also. If the weather holds up I may do a few props with Grossman, completed passes, yards, etc. You know Indy's first choice will be to stop the run and this will hopefully open it up for Rex.

[slacker00]

The Pats avg. almost 6 yds per rush against the Colts =D

It wasn't enough, clearly. Think about that for a second. Then think about WTF the Bears are going to have to do to improve on what the Pats did against the Colts. Honestly, I think the Bears offense has to score 15 points to have a chance. I'm just not sure they can do it. The defense & special teams will have to match that number as well. Even then, if Manning has a big game, more points will be needed. I don't expect Manning to melt under these bright lights, no matter what the monkeys have been saying about him for his entire career.

[LT Profits]

Honestly, I think Crew's writeup is the best one I have seen anywhere on the internet regarding this game. I agree with everything he said and he raises some good points that I did not even consider before.

[Hoja Verdes]

slacker, you were spot on here, great call.

[slacker00]

Thanks HV.

When I saw that opening kickoff return for a TD, I didn't even blink. It didn't suprise me at all.

From an entertainment perspective, that's the only thing that kept the game close and was good for the NFL. If the Colts win the coin flip, I think the Colts get on the board first and don't look back. You saw how terrible Grossman became when he was forced to throw. Hell, at the very end the Bears just handed the ball to Jones. They knew they had no hope with Rex. But, as it was, the Bears got a lead and at least had an opportunity to play the type of game they wanted to play. Factor in the first Manning interception, and the Bears couldn't have dreamt a better scenario. Still, the Colts just proved flat out that they were the superior team today.