Rez's 2009 NFL Picks

Danskeren · 08-31-09, 02:07 PM

You should take a look at the Ravens too.
Good luck with your season, Rez .

rezkoness69 · 08-31-09, 05:50 PM

thanks bud....didn't think much when i saw the ravens line...-10 at home vs KC seems about right, Baltimore doesn't play the type of game to blow someone out, although KC is terrible and may not have Cassel.

rezkoness69 · 09-07-09, 05:23 PM

1st Official Play

I'm going to chomp on the bit and take the PATS -10 (.5 point buy)

My hypothetical starting 'Roll will be $1000, with 1 unit plays starting at $50, for simplicity sakes.

I like the pats in this spot, even though the whole world will be taking them on monday night. As I mentioned before, I think Buffalo is in trouble in this one. The Pats will bring a steady pass rush the whole game and force edwards into a lot of mistakes. On the other side of the ball, NE will dominate the bills, especially in the passing game. NE jumps out to an early lead in this one and hangs on for a 2 TD-plus win.

The PATS are 5-0 the last 5 ATS and I expect this trend to continue in this one. Ride the PATS early this year before the books realize that this is not a team people want to fuk with.

This will by my onle favorite this weekend, which is why I'm picking it this early. I'll be making a couple more plays later in the week on sume underdogs.

PATS -10 Risking $60 to win $50

rezkoness69 · 09-11-09, 12:16 PM

BUCCS (+6) 55 to in 50 (1 unit)

I love the buccs in this spot as a big dog in their opener. Reports of the buccs demise has been greatly exaggerated. Their D will still be strong as they have a nice mix of young talent and experienced veterans. The cowboys, the betting publics sweetheart, are getting wayyyy too many points here. The line should be no more than boys by a FG. Romo and company will struggle in week 1. The boys D will play well, I believe, and hold the buccs O to a limited amount of points. Ive always been a fan of Byron Leftwich though and if the buccs o-line gives him some time, he ll pick apart the boys secondary. Buccs plus 6 are the play here. Good luck to All.

rezkoness69 · 09-13-09, 03:10 PM

Adding: SEAHAWKS (-7) 55 to win 50

rezkoness69 · 09-13-09, 06:45 PM

One more play for sunday:

BEARS ML +190 26.3 to win 50.

I was looking sharply at the spread for the bears in this one but I'm starting to think if they cover the spread, they're winning this game. Once again, I think the pack is a strong team but I do believe Chicago is more than capable of pulling this one out on the road. If matt forte and the running game can get going, which I believe they will be able to do going against a still adjusting 3-4 scheme, they'll be able to keep Rodgers and his crew off the field. I'm not worried about the pack's ground game, but they should have success vs a vulnerable bears seconday, however if the bears should be able to muster some sort of pass rush and put some pressure on Rodgers. The public pushed this game all the way to 5, allowing me to grab a savory money line price. If the bears can move chains with the ground game and win the turnover battle, they should be able to pull this one out in Lambeau and kill the hopes of many, many packer backers.

rezkoness69 · 09-14-09, 08:50 PM

Well, a personally disappointing week 1 will soon come to an end

Record: 1-3

Starting Roll: $1000
Current Bankroll: $909

Moving on to next week, so far none of the games stickin out to me, havnt had a chance to really look into the lines. More to come later in the week

rezkoness69 · 09-16-09, 05:57 PM

hopefully week 2 is a little nicer to me..

Early leans, no plays yet....

Texans +6.5- houston got embarassed at home vs a rookie QB and the offense was strangely dormant. They get a tough draw vs the titans who will have had 10 days rest and are coming off an impressive performance vs the steelers, however I think this game comes down to the wire. I doubt Schaub and company put up two duds in a row like that and I like Houston to keep Tennessee on their heels in a surprise game. The bookies still have faith in the texans with 80% of the public on the titans and line moving down from 7. They would have kept the line at 7 if they believed the titans were actually a TD better in this spot. If I played this, it would mostly be to bet the average. The texans shouldn't play nearly as bad as they did last week and Tennessee shouldn't have the firepower to blow them out. then again, the titans are 13-3-1 in their last 17 ATS so maybe the bookmakers just never wanna give the Titans any love.

Carloina +6
This one is similar to the one above. Carolina and Delhomme looked abysmal in their home opener while the Falcons were quite impressive. I think Carolina's D does a much better job this week than last, and really, they didn't give up very much last week either, it was mostly the turnovers. I don't see anyway Delhomme plays as bad as he did last week. Similarly to above, this line started at 7 and is now to 6 with 75% of the public on Atlanta. I forsee a grind it out game, much different than both of these teams' games last week. I think Carolina is able to move the ball on the ground while Atlanta tries to get the burner Turner on track. Low-scoring dog fights like this one could be usually favor the underdog.

49ers -1
I didn't jump on the niners last week like I should have after I had an early lean on them. I think they go to 2-0. To be honest, offensively, Seattle didn't really impress me all that much last week. Hassleback was playing iffy, but they did great things in the run game. I think the niners are determined to show the world that last week wasn't a fluke and they will do it in their home opener. Like I said before, Singletary's got his guys playing like its the middle of November. I saw a lot of heart and toughness from the niners last week. Again, 70% of the public on Seattle, yet niners go from a point dog to a point fave. The niners have gone 6-3 with singletary at the helm with a mark of 6-2-1 ATS. San Fran's D is one of the most underrated in the league and they show why this Sunday.

Cleveland +3
The Broncos are a terrible team, lets face it. They have no offense to speak of and I was very surprised that their D played as well as it did last week vs the Bengals. No such luck this week. The Browns will pound the ball right down the Broncos throat with a heavy dose of Jamal Lewis and the running game. The Browns are still having cold-sweats at night thinking about Adrian peterson, they get a much lighter challenge this week. If Cleveland can avoid all the stupid penalties they had last week, I think the Browns win by 10. This one will probably be very ugly to watch, but in the end I like the Browns to win the contest and cover the spread.

That's it for now, now I'll just watch the lines a bit, do a little more homework and make my final plays for the week.

Totolover1409 · 09-16-09, 07:52 PM

Like the Cleveland pick, disagree with you on the niners pick even though I'm a huge niner fan.

rezkoness69 · 09-18-09, 11:56 PM

SAN FRAN -1 1 unit

First play of week 2. I like the 49ers here for the reasons mentioned above. I like the way the line's moved as well. Singletary's boys come to play in this one, I like the niners in a hard-fought contest.

azn624 · 09-19-09, 12:10 AM

i like sf, Hou, and cle this week as well, not sure about the car/atl game though

rezkoness69 · 09-19-09, 01:07 PM

PANTHERS (+6.5) 2 units 110 to win 100

My largest wager of the young season goes tomorrow. The panthers, in what should be a close, hard-fought divisional game are getting too many points. THe linemakers opened this up with atlanta favored by a TD and then quickly changed it to 6.5 for most of the week, inviting action on atlanta, which they were getting. Now, atlanta bets are slipping and more people are hitting the panthers (still less than 40%). With the sudden increase in carolina bets, the oddsmakers are again adjusting to the line to 6 in some places. They desperately want Atlanta action it appears. I'm gonna jump on the panthers before the line moves to 6 on my book. Delhomme had an atrocious start to the season and knows that this is a very crucial game for him, his coach, and his team. He'll play well, I believe. The panthers D will be able to contain the run game and you just hope, with Chris Harris likely out, that Matt Ryan doesn't go off for 300 yards in this one. If he doesn't, the panthers cover this spread. If carolina's run game can control the clock, they not only cover but win in Atlanta.

rezkoness69 · 09-19-09, 01:11 PM

Another point worth making, with Atlanta giving 6.5, their ML value is only offered at -260, indicating a soft 6.5. With that spread, their ML value should be a lot closer to the 300 area, indicating that carolina is indeed the correct pick.

Totolover1409 · 09-19-09, 02:53 PM

good info man. ill ride you with the panthers pick

rezkoness69 · 09-20-09, 02:23 PM

Adding: BROWNS (+3) 1 unit

rezkoness69 · 09-20-09, 06:24 PM

Week 2: 1-2, -$115.

Another disappointing week. I feel like I'm picking the games correctly, but I may have to re-asses my processes for how I'm analyzing the match-ups. I was very confident in Carolina, it was a close game, just not within the point spread, but man their D got shown up again. The Browns got embarassed by the surprising Broncos while the 49ers took care of business. Hopefully, I can turn things around for myself.

Year Totals:
2-5
Starting Roll: $1000
Current Roll: $794

rezkoness69 · 09-22-09, 12:52 AM

After quick glances at the lines, only one really stickin out...and thats the Raiders at basically a pick'em. This one looks very juicy, but that's not sayin much comin from me at the moment

rezkoness69 · 09-23-09, 06:05 PM

WEEK 3 Leans, no plays yet

BUCCS: +6.5, This would be a play for me for sure, if it wasn't exactly like most of the last few bets I've made, most of them being losers haha. The line movement is there with everyone on the Giants after there SNF win at Dallas and nobody giving the buccs any love. Might make a small play on the buccs for the principle of the thing. Also, the buccs offense has quietly put together a couple solid efforts, who would have thought it would be tampa's D that would be their weakest unit.

BROWNS +13.5 This spread is a bit too high for the ravens, whom don't traditionally blow teams out, even the lowly Browns. Most would think this one wouldn't be close with Cleveland's offense as abysmall as its been and baltimore's D being as traditionally strong as it is. The thing is, this is a divisional game and would seem to be a hard-fought contest. Baltimore's run game has been impressive while the browns D has been shredded vs the run. THe trend spots here, I don't think baltimore's offense will able to produce as much as it has the first couple games and I think Brady Quinn knows he may be pulled if he doesn't come to play this week. I like the motivational factor for the browns and Coach Mangini, plus over 70% of bettors are on the ravens with the spread dropping from 14.

DOLPHINS +6 San Diego has not impressed at all this year. They very well could be 0-2 and havn't been able to slow down anybody in the run game. Well, here come the Dolphins who are pissed about what happened on Monday. Coach Sporano had a perfect gameplan in place yet couldn't take down the colts. I think Miami gets it done this week at San Diego, even with the short week and the long travel. The dolphins will again rush for 200+ yards and Miami's D will come to play. San Diego's defense needs to figure things out or else they may not run away with the division like everyone first thought. When they played last year, Miami rushed for 170 while SD rushed for only 60 in a miami victory.

RAIDERS +1 The raiders are 1-1 and I think a very underrated team, atleast to the linemakers. The spread here should be raiders by 3, no doubt about it. I can't believe they're getting a point in this spot. The broncos should be 1-1, although there D has really impressed me thus far. The spread correctly opened with the raiders being favored by a point or two, but has shifted with heavy money being placed on the broncos. The broncos will have to travel to the black hole which is always a tough place to play. The broncos have the 2nd rated defensive unit in the NFL in terms of yards allowed, which really is a very surprising statistic. They've only allowed 70 per game on the ground. But that came against Cedric Benson and Jamal Lewis. I think the duo of McFadden and Bush will have a big game this week at home, similar to week 1. Jamarcus russel is just a terrible QB but I don't think he'll be counted on heavily in this one. Theres no way I see the raiders losing this one, and if Denver does go 3-0, I'm auto-fading them even heavier next week for sure. I'll keep fading the broncos until they come back to reality or make me bankrupt, whatever happens first.

rezkoness69 · 09-23-09, 06:20 PM

Also, i'm changing my unit size to $40.

rezkoness69 · 09-23-09, 09:13 PM

Official Plays:
TITANS (+2.5) 2 units I got strong information on this game. Lots of sharps on the titans and it looks like a good one. The titans are hungry for a win and know they can't afford to go down 3-0. They will feast on the rookie Sanchez on the defensive side of the ball. They Jets have the #1 ranked D right now. They did a magnificent job holding Brady and company in check, but the Jets have yet to face a team with a running game like the Titans. Chris Johnson and company will, I believe, dominate this game. The Jets, coming off a huge emotional win vs the pats are in for a letdown game and its a perfect situational match-up as the Titans are flying under the radar and getting points as a winless team. Line opened at 3, but now down to 2.5 with the bookies just asking for the public's action on the Jets.

DOLPHINS (+6) 2 units Miami is coming off a disappointing loss vs the colts in which they really couldn't have played much better. Some would think they're in for a letdown after such a disheartening loss, but quite the contrary, Miami is starving for win #1 of the young season. They're tired of being written off already and will show the world they're better then their record indicates. They will dominate in the ground game, where the lowly Chargers D is averaging 130 yards given up on the ground. I don't see a lot of passion or fire out of this chargers squad. They seem content on going 9-7 and winning the division. Some quotes from Rivers and Turner in the paper indicate exactly that; saying they're not as good as people think they are and have a lot of work to do and are overrated and shouldn't be expected to win every game. That sounds like talk from a losing team. The fins on the other hand are really excited for this one. Joey Porter, "you don't win championships in weeks 1 and 2." The dolphins are hungry and won't let the chargers run on them at all. They will force Rivers to throw and he sure as hell isn't throwing for another 400 yards. They will be without LT, and two starters on the offensive line, including center Nick Hardwick. I love Miami in this spot. With even money on both sides and the spread dropping from 7 to 6, I like it even more.

BROWNS (+13.5) This is the second week in a row I'll be wagering on the sorry ass franchise from Cleveland. But even for them, 13.5 is too much. The Ravens absolutly dominate the browns, but I think the ravens offense has been playing a bit over their heads lately. That being said, the defense has been playing way below their standards as well. I think this one will be a low scoring contest, and thus a 13.5 spread is too much. Even if the browns can only muster 10-13 points, it should be good enough for a cover. Brady Quinn knows this is probably the biggest game of his career up to this point with everyone calling for Derek Anderson, and I believe he will come to play. The ravens secondary can be beat, something that cleveland hasn't done to any secondary up to this point. The Browns will most likely be without jamal Lewis and the other ball carriers have a combined 5 NFL carries between them, which is a bit worrisome. Still, I believe the Ravens will be looking towards their matchup next week with the Pats, and could be susceptible to a hungry browns team....albeit one thats getting 13.5 points. 75% of the public on the ravens and the line is down from 14 to 13 in some places. I'll ride the browns for 1 unit.

One thing of note here, all these teams are 0-2, with only 1 ATS cover in 6 tries between them. The thing to understand here is that the bookies will always try to average things out over the course of a season. They don't like to see the same teams covering and the same teams failing to cover every week and adjust the lines accordingly. The bookies have been taking a beating, relatively, in the first couple weeks of the year with big public money winning quite a few games. They'll get their money back sooner or later, hopefully for me, it starts this week.

rezkoness69 · 09-27-09, 02:38 PM

Adding: RAIDERS (+2.5) 1 unit

rezkoness69 · 09-27-09, 03:05 PM

Adding: BEARS (-3) 1 unit

Hassleback out, 7 other starters out for Seattle. bears should win this one

rezkoness69 · 09-27-09, 07:26 PM

I'm getting my ass kicked so far this year. After this week, I'll prob take a weekend off and watch and learn from week 4. The public keeps cashing their tickets in this early NFL season. I've been on the wrong side too many times to continue wagering. Next week, I'll prob. cap and pick and every game ATS on my own, without wagering, and see how I do. That should give me a good idea if I'm grasping the ebb and flow of the 2009 NFL season or not. One more play for today though

COLTS (+3) 33 to win 30

rezkoness69 · 09-29-09, 02:12 AM

Record: 4-9

Current Bankroll: $6000

It will turn around soon

rezkoness69 · 10-04-09, 02:40 PM

Official Play:

49ers -9 (55 to win 50)

The early games and the previous weeks up to this point are showing me that making the obvious plays early this season has been money. This is going against my usual betting strategies with slight line movement (9.5 to 9) on the game. Maybe this year the NFL is enjoying less parity than is normal for the league with teams like KC, Oakland, etc. playing just terrible football. I'll ride the gore-less 49ers at home after last week's heartbreaker to the vikes. Hopefully this isn't a let down for them as their D should hold STL, with kyle Boller at QB, under 14 points.

rezkoness69 · 10-05-09, 08:09 PM

Juuust a little late but I have Vikes/Pack

UNDER 46.5 (33 to win 30)

Edit: the score just turned 7-7 when I wrote this

rezkoness69 · 10-05-09, 10:46 PM

week 4 total: 1-1

Current bankroll: $617

Overall:5-10

rezkoness69 · 10-05-09, 10:52 PM

Week 5 official play:

PANTHERS -3 (55 to win 50)

I'm lockin this one in now while the lines at 3. Carolina coming off a bye week and hosting the lowly Redskins who narrowly left home with a W over the Buccs. More analysis to come later in the week

rezkoness69 · 10-18-09, 12:02 PM

Last Week: 0-0-1

Week 6 Plays:

JACKSONVILLE JAGS (-9.5) 33 to win 30

DETROIT LIONS (+14) 44 to win 40

Been really busy, no time for write-ups, but I havn't done anything yet this year so I doubt people are looking for my write-ups anyway. Good luck everyone, possible more plays to come later today.