Math behind the Super Bowl spread + ml-what to choose-NERDS ONLY

[budwiser]

This is completely nerdy, but here goes. This pertains to the Super Bowl only, because the ML will go down for the Bengals, and the spread will let's assume stay at a cherry +4.5 for the Bengals.

The Bengals are +175 on the ML and +4.5 on the spread.

Eventually with all the Bengals ML bets you can assume +165 ML and +4.5 spread. Right?

What's the right play.

The right play is +4.5.

The public thinks of it as you get your money and an extra 65%.

But the books have one goal-that's to get your $. The books look at it this way.

Let's say you put $1000 on the game.

If you put $1000 on the ML, you get $2650 in return.

If you put $1000 on the spread, you get about $1900 in return.

So the real choice is $1900 or $2650. And the extra $750 for $1900 is 39%. PLUS you are giving up +4.5, which essentially means the Rams have to win by a touchdown or more, for that extra 39%.

You have to choose the points if you're on the Bengals. And if you're on the Rams you should choose the ML. Because the public is going to drive the ML for the Rams down, and +4.5 is essentially forcing the Rams to win by a touchdown or double digits for only a 39% extra return.

That is the way you look at it imo

[budwiser]

The math for the rams is, let's say you put $1850 on the game.

At -185 you get $2850 back.

At -4.5 you get $3500 back.

So assuming you get $2850 back, you are risking all of that at -4.5 to get an extra 35% ($650). Does that make sense? No. Not to me, anyways, but hey i could be wrong.

But, more Rams bettors will choose the spread, more Bengals bettors will choose the ML.

And with these props, it's the same thing-the public bettor drives down the + money.

If you disagree, and you're on the Bengals, then get the ML now, cause it's going down. Everyone knows that, so why wait. As for the Rams bettors, may as well wait, can't get much worse than -4.5, and the ML should go down.

[budwiser]

Another thing is these stupid props.

They got these juiced to ridiculous levels, like the "Octopus" (guy gets td and 2 pointer consecutively) is +2000 or -3000. It is almost a joke that the books get an extra -1000 on these spreads. You gotta look at the difference between the offers, if it's huge you gotta lay off. But, people can be so dumb they do it anyways.

[OldBill]

I have never ever BET on ML favorite in the superbowl because if your afraid of points beating you .... better think again it's the other 22 men that you should be thinking about.

YES i lost superbowls to DOGs because i wasnt thinking when i had wrong side 49ers -4.5 to ravens because i hated ravens for certain players on the team and what ravens players did in playoff finals to raiders QB elbow drop in his shoulder to take him out of game

as i posted in 1 thread out of 55 superbowls DOGS cashing and winning s/u went 28-0-2 more than 1/2 DOGS won money

[budwiser]

I have never ever BET on ML favorite in the superbowl because if your afraid of points beating you .... better think again it's the other 22 men that you should be thinking about.

YES i lost superbowls to DOGs because i wasnt thinking when i had wrong side 49ers -4.5 to ravens because i hated ravens for certain players on the team and what ravens players did in playoff finals to raiders QB elbow drop in his shoulder to take him out of game

as i posted in 1 thread out of 55 superbowls DOGS cashing and winning s/u went 28-0-2 more than 1/2 DOGS won money

normally yeah. and history says if you're afraid of the favorite spread, bet the spread. we all want to double our $

however, specific to the Super Bowl ONLY, I would expect these Rams MLs to go down. And if it's Rams -175 and -4.5 you have to take the ML.

On the other side, if it's Bengals +160 or +4.5, you have to take the spread

If this stuff doesn't move around bigtime by Sunday I'll be surprised

You wager late Saturday night and Sunday. Don't wait until Sunday afternoon, the lines are huge

[budwiser]

line movement usually starts Thursday night as people start heading in for the weekend

[OldBill]

wish my old buddy was still alive in vegas always talked to me over the phone because i gave him my systems for every nfl team and he knew what other wise guys were on they always coincided with each other

didnt always help because boy i knew they hit the wrong side