NFL Betting System: A Fool-Proof Super Bowl Betting System

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  • OldBill
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-02-21
    • 6410

    #1
    NFL Betting System: A Fool-Proof Super Bowl Betting System
    When it comes down to the Super Bowl, often times it’s really hard to come up with a play because the odds makers are so sharp on the line and both teams are really good. In Week 1, Week 7 or Week 14, you can usually circle at least one complete mismatch. In the Super Bowl, both teams have two weeks to prepare and the contest are usually very tight.

    But with that in mind, we’ve uncovered a good Super Bowl betting system, which was first created by legendary NFL head coach Hank Stram. Here’s how it works:
    The System: This system has a strict formula that values different aspects of the team. It takes into account experience from previous seasons as well as statistics from the current year. When all of the ingredients of the recipe are plugged in, the formula will spit out who is the better team, and that’s the bet.
    Use only regular season stats and remember to compare the final number to the spread to decipher which team to bet.
    Give 10 points to a team if they have won a Super Bowl in the last three seasons.
    Give 8.0 points to either team if their opponent is playing in their very first Super Bowl in franchise history.
    Give 8.0 points to the team that has given up the fewer amount of defensive rushes.

    Give 7.0 points to the team with the best straight up win/loss record including playoffs.

    Give 7.0 points to the team with the most offensive rushes on the season.

    Give 5.0 points to the team with the better defensive yards-per-carry average.

    Give 4.0 points to the team that has the best net kick-punt touchdown returns.

    Give 4.0 points to the team the team who performed better against the point spread in the regular season.

    Give 4.0 points to the team that has the better net penalty yards number.

    Give 3.5 points to the team that has the greater yards per pass attempt.

    Give 3.5 points to the team that has allowed up the fewest points on the season.

    Give 3.5 points to the team that has given up the fewest amount of rushing touchdowns.

    Give 3.0 points to the team that has recorded the most sacks.

    Give 2.5 points to the team with the fewer offensive pass attempts.

    Give 2.0 points to the team that had the best net punts (total) on the year.

    Give 1.5 points to the team with the best offensive yards-per-carry average.

    Give 1.0 points to the team with the better completion percentage.


    The Logic: Basically what’s happening here is that we’re using a formula that values different aspects of each team, grading them out accordingly and then betting on the team that proves better by the numbers.

    As they say, the numbers don’t lie and that’s all we’re really doing in this spot. It’s a 17-step formula but it has a very successful history, so stop racking your brain over the final two weeks of the NFL season and just plug in the numbers.
    The Track Record: The record for this Super Bowl system is at 34-10-2 as of Super Bowl XLVI
  • OldBill
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 11-02-21
    • 6410

    #2
    Use only regular season stats and remember to compare the final number to the spread to decipher which team to bet.
    Give 10 points to a team if they have won a Super Bowl in the last three seasons. NEITHER
    Give 8.0 points to either team if their opponent is playing in their very first Super Bowl in franchise history. NOPE
    Give 8.0 points to the team that has given up the fewer amount of defensive rushes.DUNNO

    Give 7.0 points to the team with the best straight up win/loss record including playoffs. Bengals 13-7 Rams 15 -5

    Give 7.0 points to the team with the most offensive rushes on the season. DUNNO

    Give 5.0 points to the team with the better defensive yards-per-carry average. DUNNO

    Give 4.0 points to the team that has the best net kick-punt touchdown returns. DUNNO

    Give 4.0 points to the team the team who performed better against the point spread in the regular season.

    BENGALS clearly Rams went 8-9 ATS



    Give 4.0 points to the team that has the better net penalty yards number. DUNNO

    Give 3.5 points to the team that has the greater yards per pass attempt. BENGALS

    Give 3.5 points to the team that has allowed up the fewest points on the season.

    Give 3.5 points to the team that has given up the fewest amount of rushing touchdowns.

    Give 3.0 points to the team that has recorded the most sacks.

    Give 2.5 points to the team with the fewer offensive pass attempts.

    Give 2.0 points to the team that had the best net punts (total) on the year.

    Give 1.5 points to the team with the best offensive yards-per-carry average.

    Give 1.0 points to the team with the better completion percentage.

    also take into effect the weak SOS of rams playing vs 11 games of losers
    Comment
    • OldBill
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 11-02-21
      • 6410

      #3
      How have favorites performed in Super Bowl history? 34-20 straight up (SU) and 26-26-2 against the spread (ATS).

      The over/under in Super Bowl history is also split, with 26 overs, 26 unders and one push (there was no O/U for Super Bowl I).
      Has the point spread mattered in the final result of Super Bowls? In 55 games, the straight up winner is 36-5-2 ATS.

      In the Super Bowl, the SU winner has also covered the spread in 16 consecutive games. The last favorite not to cover? The Patriots, who were seven-point favorites in Super Bowl XXXIX, but beat the Eagles by only three points with a final score of 24-21.


      Cincinnati Bengals

      Bengals have won covered thier last 7 games the last team to that was the patriots way back vs The Falcons
      • The Bengals are 13-7 ATS this season entering the Super Bowl, the second-most profitable team in the NFL behind just the Dallas Cowboys (13-5 ATS).
      • Cincinnati had odds of 150-1 to win the Super Bowl entering the preseason, which is tied with the 1999-00 Rams for the biggest long shot to make the Super Bowl (since 1978).
      • Joe Burrow is 12-4 ATS vs. above .500 opponents, making him the most profitable QB in NFL since he was drafted No. 1 overall in 2020. He has covered six games in a row.
      • This will be the Bengals’ third Super Bowl appearance in franchise history. Cincinnati is 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS in the Big Game.
      • With zero wins in their 54-year history as a franchise (started in 1968), the Bengals own the ninth-longest championship drought in pro football history.



      • The Rams will be playing in their fifth Super Bowl in franchise history. The Rams are 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in those four games.
      • The Rams will play the Bengals in Super Bowl LVI. Cincinnati entered the year at 150-1 odds to win it all. In 1999, the then St. Louis Rams were 150-1 to win it all in the preseason and went on to win the Super Bowl.
        • As of now, the 1999 Rams are the biggest long shots to win it all since start of wild-card games in 1978.

      • Matthew Stafford entered this season 23-57 (28.85) SU in his career vs. teams above .500. In 2021, he is 6-4 SU in that spot and currently on a three-game winning streak (winning five of his last six).
      • Cooper Kupp enters the Super Bowl having scored a touchdown in his last five games (including eight of his last nine games).
        • In 20 games this season, Kupp is 16-4 to the over for his receiving yards prop.
      Comment
      • budwiser
        SBR MVP
        • 11-22-11
        • 3226

        #4
        Yeah Hank Stram method. Would be interested if someone calculated it.
        Comment
        • GunShard
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 03-05-10
          • 10027

          #5
          Fade this bad gambler and video game livestreamer named TimTheTatman that went 0-7 on his NFL playoff picks. He thinks with his heart and not with his head. He's on the Rams as well. The Bengals should win or at least cover the spread.

          <blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"> <a href="https://t.co/RXhaV55r89">pic.twitter.com/RXhaV55r89</a></p>&mdash; Jon-O (@Jon__O) <a href="https://twitter.com/Jon__O/status/1488577587777622020?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" >February 1, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
          Comment
          • Optional
            Administrator
            • 06-10-10
            • 60941

            #6
            Originally posted by budwiser
            Yeah Hank Stram method. Would be interested if someone calculated it.
            .
            Comment
            • thinwhiteduke
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 10-10-21
              • 615

              #7
              Burrow and Kurt Warner, both born in Iowa
              Comment
              • OldBill
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 11-02-21
                • 6410

                #8
                Give 10 points to a team if they have won a Super Bowl in the last three seasons. n/a

                Give 8.0 points to either team if their opponent is playing in their very first Super Bowl in franchise history. N/A


                Give 8.0 points to the team that has given up the fewer amount of defensive rushes. BENGALS +8 407 Rams 443

                Give 7.0 points to the team with the best straight up win/loss record including playoffs. BENGALS 8+7 =15

                Give 5.0 points to the team with the better defensive yards-per-carry average. Bengals 5+15 =20


                Give 4.0 points to the team that has the best net kick-punt touchdown returns. Bengals 0 rams 1 i think

                RAMS TOUCHDOWNS Rushing 10 Passing 41 Returns 1 Defensive 0

                BENGALS

                TOUCHDOWNS Rushing 16 Passing 36 Returns 0 Defensive 2
                Give 4.0 points to the team the team who performed better against the point spread in the regular season.
                BENGALS by far 4+20 = 24


                Give 4.0 points to the team that has the better net penalty yards number. DUNNO--too hard to find have to go game by game both teams thats 34 total games


                Give 3.5 points to the team that has the greater yards per pass attempt. BENGALS 3.5 +24 = 27.5


                Give 3.5 points to the team that has allowed up the fewest points on the season. Neither bengals 376 Rams 372

                bengals benched last game rams did not ok give rams 1.5 points

                offensive points stone equal both 460 PF


                Give 3.5 points to the team that has given up the fewest amount of rushing touchdowns. DUNNO


                Give 3.0 points to the team that has recorded the most sacks. Rams 50 Bengals 42 3 +1.5 = +4.5 Rams


                Give 2.5 points to the team with the fewer offensive pass attempts. Bengals 555 Rams 607 2.5 +27.5 = +30


                Give 2.0 points to the team that had the best net punts (total) on the year. NOT shown


                Give 1.5 points to the team with the best offensive yards-per-carry average. same 4.1 each


                Give 1.0 points to the team with the better completion percentage. BENGALS .691% Rams .668% 1 + 30 = 31 so i have totals Bengals 31 Rams 4.5 ok lets give rams the 3.5 for fewest Rushing Td's that gives them 8a nd net punts +2 = 10

                wow 31 -10
                Comment
                • sunshine11
                  SBR MVP
                  • 04-13-14
                  • 2634

                  #9
                  So Bengals it is?
                  Comment
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