Chargers @ Falcons
Play: Chargers +3 (strong) Under 42.5 (medium - damn there's been a lot of points scored so far this week...gulp)
The Falcons, in spite of being mere seconds away from a preseason 2-0 record, are largely untested as their games have been against two of the worst teams of last season, the Lions and Rams. The Lions and Rams had the two worst run defenses last year, the Lions had the worst pass defense, and the Rams were only a few spots ahead at 27th (by my rescored rankings). For a balanced offense like the Falcons, it should have been easy pickings for their first team offense. Matt Ryan has gone 12/15 for 114 yards and one touchdown in his limited series. The Falcons have definitely upgraded at the TE position with Tony Gonzalez, but if there is one team that is familiar with Tony, it is, of course, the Chargers. The Falcons’ first half defense has done well at limiting opponent’s points, surrendering only 3 to both Detroit and St. Louis.
Good offense, solid defense? Too soon, too soon to say, I say. When looking at the entire game stats, the Lions outgained the Falcons 454 to 228 in offensive yards. That’s almost getting doubled up. Last week, when Ryan played deeper into the game, the Falcons outgained the Rams 331 to 283 yards. That’s an average of 279 yards per game versus the two worst defenses of last year. Those 283 yards allowed to the Rams were versus a subpar offensive team missing their starting quarterback. The 454 yards surrendered to the Lions were versus a QB on his 4th or 5th wind, Culpepper, and a rookie, Stafford, who is not projected to be a great NFL quarterback by collegiate statistical measurements. An argument can be made that most of the damage was done or left undone by the Atlanta non-starters, but it doesn’t bode well even in week #3 of the preseason where the starters see the most playing time, because the starters still typically won’t be playing the 4th quarter.
Turning to the Chargers – have they managed to find the electrical socket yet this preseason? At the QB position, Rivers has not seen much action, throwing only 8 passes in the first game, and 7 in the second. He did gain 116 yards on his 7 attempts versus the Cardinals, which is a pretty healthy yards per attempt average. One thing is for certain, though – the Chargers have played two tougher defenses than the Falcons have. Not top-notch defenses, mind you, but both better than the Lions and Rams, as you can’t get any worse than worst and second worst defense in the league last year. The Chargers’ ground game hasn’t done much yet, but Tomlinson and Sproles have combined for only 18 of the 54 preseason rush attempts. The Chargers’ run defense has been phenomenal so far, limiting their opponent’s to 2.8 and 3.0 yards per carry.
When you look at all the pieces, there seems to be no reason the Chargers shouldn’t score on most of their possessions with Phillip Rivers in the game, and they stand a pretty good chance of doing the same with Billy Volek in there. If current trends continue, Ryan should go a little deeper into this game than Rivers, probably into the 3rd quarter, while Rivers probably won’t go past the half. As long as Charlie Whitehurst doesn’t enter the game for the Chargers, it’s all good in the hood. The Falcons’ on the other hand, will find it more challenging to score on any of their possessions, especially when their cavalcade of NFL-untested quarterbacks replace Ryan. Rivers is a proven quarterback in this league without a doubt. At this point of his career, he may be the top quarterback a franchise would choose to run their offense for several years to come. Matt Ryan has one decent year under his belt, but his QB rating is only 3 points higher than that of the average starting quarterback in the league this year. He is definitely a solid QB, but he benefitted from catching many teams gearing up to stop the Falcons’ run offense while taking their chances forcing a rookie QB to beat them through the air, something Ryan did prove able to do on most occasions. He won’t be taking anyone by surprise this year, and he won’t be able to outduel Phillip Rivers, and the Falcons will lose their first preseason home game.
Final Score Prediction: Chargers 21 – Falcons 17
Play: Chargers +3 (strong) Under 42.5 (medium - damn there's been a lot of points scored so far this week...gulp)
The Falcons, in spite of being mere seconds away from a preseason 2-0 record, are largely untested as their games have been against two of the worst teams of last season, the Lions and Rams. The Lions and Rams had the two worst run defenses last year, the Lions had the worst pass defense, and the Rams were only a few spots ahead at 27th (by my rescored rankings). For a balanced offense like the Falcons, it should have been easy pickings for their first team offense. Matt Ryan has gone 12/15 for 114 yards and one touchdown in his limited series. The Falcons have definitely upgraded at the TE position with Tony Gonzalez, but if there is one team that is familiar with Tony, it is, of course, the Chargers. The Falcons’ first half defense has done well at limiting opponent’s points, surrendering only 3 to both Detroit and St. Louis.
Good offense, solid defense? Too soon, too soon to say, I say. When looking at the entire game stats, the Lions outgained the Falcons 454 to 228 in offensive yards. That’s almost getting doubled up. Last week, when Ryan played deeper into the game, the Falcons outgained the Rams 331 to 283 yards. That’s an average of 279 yards per game versus the two worst defenses of last year. Those 283 yards allowed to the Rams were versus a subpar offensive team missing their starting quarterback. The 454 yards surrendered to the Lions were versus a QB on his 4th or 5th wind, Culpepper, and a rookie, Stafford, who is not projected to be a great NFL quarterback by collegiate statistical measurements. An argument can be made that most of the damage was done or left undone by the Atlanta non-starters, but it doesn’t bode well even in week #3 of the preseason where the starters see the most playing time, because the starters still typically won’t be playing the 4th quarter.
Turning to the Chargers – have they managed to find the electrical socket yet this preseason? At the QB position, Rivers has not seen much action, throwing only 8 passes in the first game, and 7 in the second. He did gain 116 yards on his 7 attempts versus the Cardinals, which is a pretty healthy yards per attempt average. One thing is for certain, though – the Chargers have played two tougher defenses than the Falcons have. Not top-notch defenses, mind you, but both better than the Lions and Rams, as you can’t get any worse than worst and second worst defense in the league last year. The Chargers’ ground game hasn’t done much yet, but Tomlinson and Sproles have combined for only 18 of the 54 preseason rush attempts. The Chargers’ run defense has been phenomenal so far, limiting their opponent’s to 2.8 and 3.0 yards per carry.
When you look at all the pieces, there seems to be no reason the Chargers shouldn’t score on most of their possessions with Phillip Rivers in the game, and they stand a pretty good chance of doing the same with Billy Volek in there. If current trends continue, Ryan should go a little deeper into this game than Rivers, probably into the 3rd quarter, while Rivers probably won’t go past the half. As long as Charlie Whitehurst doesn’t enter the game for the Chargers, it’s all good in the hood. The Falcons’ on the other hand, will find it more challenging to score on any of their possessions, especially when their cavalcade of NFL-untested quarterbacks replace Ryan. Rivers is a proven quarterback in this league without a doubt. At this point of his career, he may be the top quarterback a franchise would choose to run their offense for several years to come. Matt Ryan has one decent year under his belt, but his QB rating is only 3 points higher than that of the average starting quarterback in the league this year. He is definitely a solid QB, but he benefitted from catching many teams gearing up to stop the Falcons’ run offense while taking their chances forcing a rookie QB to beat them through the air, something Ryan did prove able to do on most occasions. He won’t be taking anyone by surprise this year, and he won’t be able to outduel Phillip Rivers, and the Falcons will lose their first preseason home game.
Final Score Prediction: Chargers 21 – Falcons 17