Bears vs. Colts

trustbutverify · 01-29-07, 02:57 PM

Chi +7

EBone · 01-29-07, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by bside

Chicago - 7-1 on the road this year with their only loss at NE. They covered the number 5 out of those eight.

On the Road their offense is averaging 24.7 points.
Rush - 116 yds/3.7 YPR
Pass - 202 yds/6.2 YPA

On the Road their defense is giving up 15.5 points.
Allowing 97 on the ground, 3.7 YPR
Allowing 211 in the air, 5.6 YPA

My belief is that the numbers above are the numbers to pay attention to, especially the defensive numbers. My problem is this:

On avg, Chicago has given up what is quoted above. True. But without Tommie Harris, my belief is that this Bears defense is just marginal. In the 2 games since his injury, the Bears played the Rams and Lions on the road. 1-1 ATS; the run numbers are 40 carries for 168 yards or 4.2 yards per carry against the Bears defense.

I believe Lovie Smith is a good coach and, with the horses, could win this game. But I truly believe that, with Tommie Harris, this game is a PICKEM. Without him, the line is about right. That means that the injuries to Tommie Harris and Mike Brown essentially count for 7 points worth of difference. That is truly telling. Conclusion: Lovie's main horse is not going to be suited on Super Bowl Sunday.

The Bears were fortunate in that they played a bunch of NFC teams to get to the Super Bowl. Without Tommie Harris, they were able to beat the Seahawks and the Saints at home. The Seahawks were depleted on defense and the Saints couldn't hang on to the ball. Perhaps the Saints couldn't hold onto the ball because they are a dome team or perhaps that is falacy.

In any event, even though my initial reaction was to take the Bears and the points, the signs I'm seeing are pointing toward the Colts. Another telling factor is that the Bears have had only one(1) point total go UNDER the number since Tommie Harris went down with his injury (his injury happened against the Vikes on 12/3). The UNDER was the Sunday night game where the Packers beat them 26-7 so it didn't go UNDER because the Bears defensively stopped the Packers. Certainly, there were other factors in this game as well. I tend to want to throw this game out of the data gathering.

Signs are saying that the Colts will be able to score. If it does become a shootout, you have to lean toward the Colts. The Colts skill position guys are just better. Grossman is just too shaky. I think he will eventually become a very good QB in the NFL but, at the present time, I can't back him.

I'll be hammering the Colts on Sunday. But good luck to everyone. Super Bowl Sunday is a fun day. But if you lose, please don't go home and beat your wife. Stats say that Super Bowl Sunday is the biggest day for calls to the police for domestic violence. Unreal.

E

bside · 01-30-07, 11:48 AM

Thanks for the input Ebone. When the line first dropped to 6.5, I took the Colts+.5 and the over 41.5 teaser for a couple units. I had yet to cap the game and was just going on gut feeling. Now I am leaning towards getting off that bet or taking it the other way now that the line is back to 7. The numbers say take the Bears but the gut keeps saying take the Colts. Either way this game will not be a major play for me, just something to make it more fun to watch. Probably add a couple of small prop bets just for fun.

The thing that really eats at me about the Colts is their complete lack of a killer instinct. I keep seeing the camera pan over to the Manning-face on the bench. And that look of indifference on Tony Dungy's face that says there are far more important things in life than winning football games.

EBone · 01-31-07, 01:32 PM

bside,

All good points and I wish you luck this coming Sunday. My previous comments are just my thoughts. I have certainly been wrong many, many times before on this forum. However, I hope I'm not wrong this coming Sunday though.

E

bside · 01-31-07, 08:49 PM

EBone

Probably going too deep on this but both of these teams employ the cover 2 and in fact Lovie learned the "Tampa 2" while coaching under Dungy in TB. So both of these teams are essentially running the same defense. That means they have faced the cover 2 all through the preseason and throughout the season in practice. Now if I told you that two QBs were both going to face the defense they are most familiar with which one would you take: Manning or Grossman?

EBone · 02-01-07, 11:11 AM

Originally posted by bside

EBone

Probably going too deep on this but both of these teams employ the cover 2 and in fact Lovie learned the "Tampa 2" while coaching under Dungy in TB. So both of these teams are essentially running the same defense. That means they have faced the cover 2 all through the preseason and throughout the season in practice. Now if I told you that two QBs were both going to face the defense they are most familiar with which one would you take: Manning or Grossman?

Another good point. When you put it this way, I would lean more toward Grossman having a decent day. These are the types of intangibles that had me leaning, initially, toward the Bears. My experience tells me that when 2 coaches know each other as well as these two that the underdog is usually the solid play. Your point above, and for other reasons, also makes me lean toward the OVER as well because I don't know if there are many well-kept secrets between these 2.

I think it boils down to these 3 questions:

1) Can the Bears stop the rushing game of the Colts? If the Bears can stop the rushing game, this makes the Colts one dimensional and this game will be very tight with a strong possibility of a Bears victory. If not, I think this game becomes blowout city.

2) Can Grossman be productive? If the answer is yes, I would expect a shootout. The OVER would be an easy play in my opinion. If he is not productive and turns the ball over, again, Blowout City.

3) Can the Bears get some special teams or defensive scores? If the answer is yes, the Bears should definitely score 20 points in this game. But you still have to answer Questions #1 & #2 above in regard to who covers. I really believe that the Colts can hang 40 on the Bears if the Bears can't stop the run. When I say stop the run, I'm talking a RPC average of 3 yards or less.

We'll see. I do know this: I'm gonna have a ball on Super Bowl Sunday and, if I win my wager, it'll make it even more fun.

E

Tchocky · 02-01-07, 03:52 PM

1. Colts -8 +120
2. Under 49.5 -132