The Over 235.5 yards, or the Over 33.5 attempts on Jones are tempting.
He threw for 267 vs. Denver Sunday on 37 attempts. Of the 10 targets, non-WR's were 9 throws, a non-WR
percentage of 23%. What does this mean? That the short pass (3 were to Barkley) is part of their running game,
so if they really don't want to ground and pound the ball (or can't) then how does his attempts not go over 33.5 ?
It would involve breakout runs, big plays, then clock management if they have a 2 possession lead. Unlikely.
Will he get the yardage? Maybe. The reason to take attempts over yardage isn't only about the opponents defensive strengths, it's about IAY/PY. IAY/PY is Intended Air Yards (his was 306) divided by attempts, which was 8.3 yards intented (not including the run after) per pass. So, it's not like he's throwing deep a lot, even though they were playing from behind. Since there is pressure on Jones to avoid turnovers, including INTs, I don't see why an away game against WAS would be the place to try to become Dan Marino. So I'd rather take the attempts over, as Barkley isn't up for many more carries than 5 days ago, and the WAS backfield allowed 334 yards on 47 attempts last week.
One last thing to check on, the line/stat ratio (pricing indicator) is 235.5/267 =.882 on the PY, and 33.5/37 = .905 on the PA. So the PA is just a smidge pricier, for a reason. Lack of confidence in Jones' abilities.
Wager: Over 33.5 PA's.
He threw for 267 vs. Denver Sunday on 37 attempts. Of the 10 targets, non-WR's were 9 throws, a non-WR
percentage of 23%. What does this mean? That the short pass (3 were to Barkley) is part of their running game,
so if they really don't want to ground and pound the ball (or can't) then how does his attempts not go over 33.5 ?
It would involve breakout runs, big plays, then clock management if they have a 2 possession lead. Unlikely.
Will he get the yardage? Maybe. The reason to take attempts over yardage isn't only about the opponents defensive strengths, it's about IAY/PY. IAY/PY is Intended Air Yards (his was 306) divided by attempts, which was 8.3 yards intented (not including the run after) per pass. So, it's not like he's throwing deep a lot, even though they were playing from behind. Since there is pressure on Jones to avoid turnovers, including INTs, I don't see why an away game against WAS would be the place to try to become Dan Marino. So I'd rather take the attempts over, as Barkley isn't up for many more carries than 5 days ago, and the WAS backfield allowed 334 yards on 47 attempts last week.
One last thing to check on, the line/stat ratio (pricing indicator) is 235.5/267 =.882 on the PY, and 33.5/37 = .905 on the PA. So the PA is just a smidge pricier, for a reason. Lack of confidence in Jones' abilities.
Wager: Over 33.5 PA's.