NFL team totals of opposing teams in same game correlated?

[paidthecost20]

Anyone know if the O/U team totals of opposing teams in the same NFL game are correlated?


Trying to think it through for the purpose of same game parlays.


Like if Team A goes over, maybe Team B is more likely to also go over as they adjust strategy and play more aggressively?


Or maybe if Team A goes over, their scoring denies time and opportunities for Team B to score, who are therefore more likely to go under?


Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated thank you!

[bookie]

Have you found a book that allows you to parlay team totals in the same game? Not usually allowed.

To take up your question sideways, the liability side for books is usually favorite and over, and less often dog and under. This is based on the public idea about game scripts that if there's a blow out it'll be by favorite, and that if the dog wins it wins ugly. I have never seen any research that said that favorite-over or dog-under parlays actually actually hold less than other perturbations, but it's how people think and it doesn't not make sense.

To address your question more directly: I think there are coaches who will open up the playbook just enough to win. Knowing who they are, especially in the this early part of the season, is handy because the first time they go into a matchup where they're going to need to score to win they often do--while the total was influenced by the earlier game where they were trying to win differently.

[paidthecost20]

Thanks so much for the thoughtful reply bookie!

I can definitely see there is a correlation between favourites- and points total over.

But I have found a bookie who allows parlays on the team totals of opposing teams. For example, in opening game week 1 you can take a 2 leg parlay of Tampa O/U 29.5 and Dallas O/U 20.5.



Any idea how to think about the correlation between those legs?