Cowboys, Patriots will get it right this time
Cowboys, Patriots will get it right this time
Better late than never. Pegged as the favorites to meet in Super Bowl XLIII, the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys missed the playoffs entirely. That won't happen again this season.
What happened to our Cowboys-Patriots Super Bowl?
At the open of last year’s NFL futures market, New England was the 13-8 favorite in the AFC and the 4-1 favorite to win Super Bowl XLIII. Dallas was 2-1 to take the NFC title and 9-2 to win the Super Bowl. Things didn’t work out too well for either club. Patriots QB Tom Brady (92.9 career passer rating) was injured in the season opener, and while Matt Cassel (89.4 passer rating in 2008) led the Pats to an 11-5 record at 9-7 ATS, they didn’t make the playoffs. Cowboys QB Tony Romo missed three games with a broken pinkie finger; back-up Brad Johnson (50.5 passer rating) was shockingly ineffective, losing two of those games as Dallas missed the postseason at 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS.
Given the opportunity to pick one team from each conference that will go from rags to playoff riches in 2009, I’m taking the Pats and Cowboys. There could be others; the Houston Texans have a chance to move up in the AFC South, and the Chicago Bears are contenders in the NFC North now that Jay Cutler is their quarterback. But these are the Pats and Cowboys we’re dealing with here.
The betting odds have my back on this one. New England is yet again the preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl, moving from 6-1 at the open to 4-1 at press time. The Pats are also 2-1 to win the AFC and pegged at a league-high 11.5 regular-season victories on the Over/Under.
Dallas has the tougher path to the playoffs coming out of the NFC East, where the New York Giants and the Philadelphia Eagles are the conference co-favorites at 9-2. The Cowboys are playing third fiddle at 6-1 with a total of 9.5 wins. They’re also 12-1 for the Super Bowl, down from 9-1 at the open. Those odds are still much shorter than any of 2008’s non-playoff NFC teams.
It’s not too difficult to argue that the impact of Brady’s return to the Patriots is overvalued in the betting market. There are other reasons for New England supporters to be optimistic. Brady will get some veteran insurance on offense with the arrival of this Famous Five:
These are depth moves for the most part, and depth is very important for any team that wants to survive the rigors of a full NFL season. New England has also upgraded the tight end position, where Ben Watson (22 catches in 2008) was a disappointment. But the biggest facelift is with the Patriots pass defense that ranked No. 26 out of 32 teams last year in terms of efficiency. The Pats had four second-round draft picks this summer and used two of them on Oregon safety Patrick Chung and UConn cornerback Darius Butler. They’ll join free-agent CBs Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden on a stacked 2009 roster.
The Cowboys haven’t done quite as much to improve their situation as New England. The biggest offseason move was the release of WR Terrell Owens; Romo has plenty of other targets at his disposal, including Roy Williams and Jason Witten, each capable of catching 80 passes this year. Given what happened in those three games with Brad Johnson, the addition of Jon Kitna (80.9 passer rating for Detroit in 2007) as Romo’s back-up could be the difference between the ‘Boys making or missing the postseason.
The running game was a question mark at training camp, but RB Felix Jones is a strong candidate to step up after logging 30 carries (at 8.9 yards a pop) in six games as a rookie before getting hurt. And while the Cowboys didn’t have a draft pick until the third round, they did have a total of 12 picks, so there’s the potential for someone from that group to play meaningful minutes in 2009. But this year’s playoff hopes – and the fate of the entire coaching staff – rest on Romo’s Pro Bowl shoulders.
Better late than never. Pegged as the favorites to meet in Super Bowl XLIII, the New England Patriots and Dallas Cowboys missed the playoffs entirely. That won't happen again this season.
What happened to our Cowboys-Patriots Super Bowl?
At the open of last year’s NFL futures market, New England was the 13-8 favorite in the AFC and the 4-1 favorite to win Super Bowl XLIII. Dallas was 2-1 to take the NFC title and 9-2 to win the Super Bowl. Things didn’t work out too well for either club. Patriots QB Tom Brady (92.9 career passer rating) was injured in the season opener, and while Matt Cassel (89.4 passer rating in 2008) led the Pats to an 11-5 record at 9-7 ATS, they didn’t make the playoffs. Cowboys QB Tony Romo missed three games with a broken pinkie finger; back-up Brad Johnson (50.5 passer rating) was shockingly ineffective, losing two of those games as Dallas missed the postseason at 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS.
Given the opportunity to pick one team from each conference that will go from rags to playoff riches in 2009, I’m taking the Pats and Cowboys. There could be others; the Houston Texans have a chance to move up in the AFC South, and the Chicago Bears are contenders in the NFC North now that Jay Cutler is their quarterback. But these are the Pats and Cowboys we’re dealing with here.
The betting odds have my back on this one. New England is yet again the preseason favorite to win the Super Bowl, moving from 6-1 at the open to 4-1 at press time. The Pats are also 2-1 to win the AFC and pegged at a league-high 11.5 regular-season victories on the Over/Under.
Dallas has the tougher path to the playoffs coming out of the NFC East, where the New York Giants and the Philadelphia Eagles are the conference co-favorites at 9-2. The Cowboys are playing third fiddle at 6-1 with a total of 9.5 wins. They’re also 12-1 for the Super Bowl, down from 9-1 at the open. Those odds are still much shorter than any of 2008’s non-playoff NFC teams.
It’s not too difficult to argue that the impact of Brady’s return to the Patriots is overvalued in the betting market. There are other reasons for New England supporters to be optimistic. Brady will get some veteran insurance on offense with the arrival of this Famous Five:
- RB Fred Taylor (age 33)
- WR Joey Galloway (37)
- WR Greg Lewis (29)
- TE Chris Baker (29)
- TE Alex Smith (27)
These are depth moves for the most part, and depth is very important for any team that wants to survive the rigors of a full NFL season. New England has also upgraded the tight end position, where Ben Watson (22 catches in 2008) was a disappointment. But the biggest facelift is with the Patriots pass defense that ranked No. 26 out of 32 teams last year in terms of efficiency. The Pats had four second-round draft picks this summer and used two of them on Oregon safety Patrick Chung and UConn cornerback Darius Butler. They’ll join free-agent CBs Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden on a stacked 2009 roster.
The Cowboys haven’t done quite as much to improve their situation as New England. The biggest offseason move was the release of WR Terrell Owens; Romo has plenty of other targets at his disposal, including Roy Williams and Jason Witten, each capable of catching 80 passes this year. Given what happened in those three games with Brad Johnson, the addition of Jon Kitna (80.9 passer rating for Detroit in 2007) as Romo’s back-up could be the difference between the ‘Boys making or missing the postseason.
The running game was a question mark at training camp, but RB Felix Jones is a strong candidate to step up after logging 30 carries (at 8.9 yards a pop) in six games as a rookie before getting hurt. And while the Cowboys didn’t have a draft pick until the third round, they did have a total of 12 picks, so there’s the potential for someone from that group to play meaningful minutes in 2009. But this year’s playoff hopes – and the fate of the entire coaching staff – rest on Romo’s Pro Bowl shoulders.
