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Looker pretty much covered the consensus numbers you speak of I see. Heres part of a good article I did find early on that game you might to checkout.
From the books perspective:
Pinnaclesports saw its opening line hammered by early public bets, moving the line all the way from -3 to -1. That low number was too much for sharp bettors to take as they quickly bet the Chicago Bears the other way, moving the line to -2 ½.
“Sharp action and market prices are what drove the line up from -1,” says a linesman at Pinnaclesports.
Other books have been more conservative with their treatment of the line with most seeing very little movement. The majority of books have the line between -2 ½ and -3.
“We’re actually have a pretty split action,” says Shane Catford of BetCRIS. “Most of our Saints bets are at +3 and most of our Bears bets are at -2 ½. Though we are starting to see more and more Saints bets come in now that we still have the line at 2 ½.”
Catford says the sharps at BetCRIS are leaning towards New Orleans early on, though he notes that a lot of that money came in early on when the book was offering the Saints at +3 (+105).
That book has since dropped to 2 ½, placing them right in the middle of the current market. Various others currently have the line ranging everywhere from -1 (5Dimes) to -3 (Bodog).
Comment
SexyMit
SBR Hall of Famer
10-12-06
6139
#6
Thanks guys
If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!
I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!