Hello my friends...
At the beginning of the season I made the prediction that we would see much higher scoring games and would also see road doggies covering more spreads and I based that observation on the implemented Covid-19 stadium rules which would limit home town stadium attendance and I was right.
My mindset was that road teams would not have to deal with stadium fan noise and in turn that would cut down on false starts in a big way which in the end would lead to more sustained scoring drives as well as leading to more road doggies covering the posted number both ATS as well as the O/U's placed on matchups.Here we are in week 10 and we see that to date this season home teams overall have gone 65-68-1 straight up and 62-71-1 ATS...which means that road teams overall (all lines included) have managed to win 51.1 % of all games in straight up fashion and have covered 53.4% of all games ATS.
A closer look-see reveals that road favorites have gone 36-13 straight up (all lines included) which is a 73.47 % win rate but have only gone 22-26-1 ATS for a cover rate of 45.83% ATS.A little deeper dive reveals that the very best spot is to focus in on the road doggies which to date have gone 32-50-1 straight up and 49-34 ATS for a cover rate of 59.04 %.
In other words, if you had blindly wagered on all road doggies from the start of the season you would have collected on 59.04 % of those wagers which would have been a nice tidy sum!Ok, now that we know wagering on road teams overall, and more specifically on road doggies, have been extremely profitable, what is the very best spot where these road doggies have really shined?
Taking an even deeper look into the ole history book, we find that the very best spot to wager on road doggies this season have been when they have been installed as road doggies of PK to +2.5, in this spot road doggies have gone 13-6 straight up and an amazing 15-4 ATS for a cover rate of 78.95 % ATS., meanwhile, road doggies of +3 to +6.5 have gone 14-22-1 straight up but a much better to our liking 22-15 ATS.
Add the these two results together and you see that season to date road doggies of PK to +6.5 have totaled a very profitable 37-19 ATS for a winning rate of 66.07%.This week we find the following road doggies of PK to +2.5....Chargers +2 at Miami, Seattle +2.5 at Rams and possibly Washington +2.5 at Detroit (line is currently bouncing from +3 to +2.5).
Meanwhile, here are the current road doggies of +3 to +6.5....Houston +4 at Cleveland, Buffalo +3 at Arizona, Denver +3 at Raiders, Cincy +6.5 at Pittsburgh. Of these games I have listed, three are divisional matchups, another check into the history book for season to date results revealed the following two nuggets....divisional road doggies of PK to +2.5 have gone 4-3 straight up and 5-2 ATS, meanwhile, divisional road doggies of +3 to +6.5 have gone 9-4-1 O/U for a cover rate of 69.23 %.
I am not attempting to tell anyone to blindly wager on the above because as the saying goes..."past results may not be indicative of future returns". However, what I am saying is too NOT blindly toss what could be meaningful statistics out the window, afterall, its the odds maker whom we are going up against as it relates to what point spread or total he puts on any given contest and never / ever forget, that a large portion of what line is set on any given contest is based on public perception....which is WHY you want the biggest part of your handicap to be based on statistics and situational analysis.
Of the early start week 10 games I do like the Eagles to fly high and deliver a knock out punch to the Giants, mainly because Philly is getting healthy and is fresh off a bye and have now defeated the Gints in straight up fashion the past eight straight times they have met, however, the line on this contest seems a bit high to me and Philly won 22-21 at home over Big Blue back on Oct 22 as a -5 point home favorite, meaning that if we were to allow a meager 2 point adjustment for home field due to the Covid-19 home fan support, shouldn't Philly be a much shorter -1 point road favorite in this spot?
Even if you were to award Philly another -1 or -1.5 points due to having a bye last week, then at best they should only be a -2 or -2.5 road favorite instead of the -4.5 they are laying here!In the Early start games I only like one game and will put a small amount on WASHINGTON +3 over Detroit, this two teams met last year in Washington with the road kitty cats laying -4 and when the smoke cleared the home town no-names had won by the final of 19-16.
Neither team in this contest is going anywhere at seasons end and they know it, however, the chink in the Lions armor is their rush defense which allowed Viking RB Dalvin Cook to pound the rock for a mega 206 rushing yards and as a team the Vikings rushed for an eye opening 275 yards on 34 tries for a per pop average of 8.09 yards per tote!! For the season these Kitty Kats have allowed on average 147.6 rushing yards per outing...look for the No-Names to play copy Kat and pound the rock against this porous Lion rush defense which in effect will keep the Lion offense on the side line watching. I will have a couple more games in the later matchups and will post them a little later.
Take care and be well my friends!
Jim