Hello my friends....
I like two O/U plays on the NFL Week 9 card, the first contest has the Chi-town Bears traveling to Tennessee to take on a Titan squad that is currently 5-2 straight up and 2-5 ATS on the season with BOTH Titan losses occurring over Tennessee's last two outings versus Cincy and Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, da'Bears bring a mark of 5-3 straight up and ATS to town with them...as a side note the Titans have gone 5-1-1 O/U to date while the Monsters of the Midway have gone 3-5 O/U thus far.So why like the Chic / Tenny game to go OVER 47 you ask?
First of all I must admit that I also like Chicago +6.5 over the Titans in this contest as well but will wait for the time being for a solid +7 to pop up, mainly because of the fact that Tennessee's record of 5-2 straight up is a bit fraudulent as the Titans have built that 5-2 straight up mark against the league's 31st ranked set of opponents based on SOS (strength of schedule) while Chicago has built their 5-3 straight up mark against the NFL's 6th ranked set of opponents using the same SOS rankings.Both Tennessee and Chicago are in the mix with regard to their divisional standings as the Titans are tied for the top spot with the Colts who they have yet to face, that changes this coming Thursday when the Titans host the Colts on a short week.
Meanwhile, Chi-town is currently only one game back of NFC North leading Green Bay in the standings and like Tennessee has yet to face their main divisional competition this season.In the big picture neither Tennessee nor Chicago can afford a loss if they want to keep pace in their respective divisional standings so expect BOTH teams to show up and give their all and if you are wagering on the OVER that is exactly what you want.
The Chicago offense is nothing to write home about as da'Bears are only averaging 20.13 points scored per outing which is 28th league-wide and in direct contrast the Titans are averaging 29.71 points scored per contest and an even higher 35.25 points per home affair.Why also like Chicago to cover this contest ATS and possibly win outright you ask? Because da'Bears come to town with an evenly balanced defense ranked 16th vs the run and ranked 12th against the pass, this is important as Chicago has faced the NFL's 6th ranked SOS (strength of schedule) and to date have allowed the 8th LEAST amount of points to be scored against them with an average of 20.75 allowed per contest.
As mentioned above, the Bears have a balanced defense but where they have excelled is in their pass defense where they own the league's 5th ranked unit in terms of both points per 100 yards and points per play allowed. Chicago's defense is also 6th in yards allowed per play, are ranked 4th in yards per pass and 3rd in opposing passer completion rate.
Chicago's problem has been on offense, however, how good does the Chi-town offense have to be when facing a defense like the one Tennessee owns which is allowing 26.29 points per game? A peek into the ole history book reveals that Tennessee has gone OVER the posted total an amazing and perfect 8-0 in their last eight straight home contests versus NFC......Give me Chicago / Tennessee OVER 47.
In another posting I made the argument for CAROLINA +10 over Kansas City as one of my plays and if that is the case shouldn't I also like the UNDER 52 which is the posted O/U on that affair? Yupper, you dang tootin'!!
Without repeating myself too much from my Kansas City / Carolina analysis, the Chiefs are one hellava team but the fact remains that for the most part their 7-1 straight up and 6-2 ATS record was built in part from getting to face the NFL's 30th ranked set of opponents which in turn has greatly contributed to Kansas City owning the league's #1 ranking in AMOV (average margin of victory) with an eye opening difference of 12.63 points per contest over their opponents.
In my prior written analysis of Carolina +10 over Kansas City I mentioned how I thought Carolina could play "keep away" with regard to keeping the chains moving via mobile QB Teddy Bridgewater's dual threat ability which in turn will serve to keep Mahomes and company on the sideline watching, and if they are on the sideline watching they can't be on the field of play scoring points.
Add to the mix the fact that Carolina just activated stud RB Christian McCaffrey from the injury list and that will make the Panther offense just that more versatile as it will open up the playbook and make the play-action work.....Give me CAROLINA / Kansas City UNDER 52 to go along with CAROLINA +10 over Kansas City.
Take care and be well my friends!
Jim