Why all the love for KC.....what you need to know!
Hello my friends...
For the life of me I can not understand why all the love for the Kansas City Chiefs that I am seeing and hearing! I think there is a TON of value baked into this line which is currently KC -10 over Carolina after opening KC -11.5 or -12 depending on where you looked. Why you ask? Simple, Ole Joe Public sees a seemingly unbeatable Chiefs team that is destined to be a participant in the Super Bowl at seasons end going up against a 3-5 straight up win Carolina Panther team heading nowhere this season.
That very well may be true, however, its all about the point spread and as it relates to public perception and in that regard the odds maker has set a premium on those wishing to place a wager on Kansas City and for good reason as the Chiefs enter this contest having won three straight outings and covered all three contests ATS and have now covered 5 of their last 6 outings.
In this contest Kansas City will face a Carolina team that has now lost their past 3 straight outings, are only 3-5 straight up on the season and has a current ATS record of 4-4, and what's more, Kansas City gets to face this seemingly toothless Carolina Panther team in their home digs at Arrowhead Stadium, so what's not to like about Kansas City in this matchup???
For starters how about motivation? The Chiefs currently have a three game lead in the AFC West, have defeated their last two opponents (Denver and Jets) by a combined score tally of 78-25 and in this contest will face a losing non-conference opponent, and ooooohhhh by the way, the Chiefs are on a bye following this contest....kinda makes you wonder about their focus entering this affair doesn't it?
On the flip side of things, this Panther team continues to play hard, while true they own a 3-5 straight up mark on the season, its equally true that only once in those five losses did they lose by more than 8 points and that was their 14 point loss in week two at Tampa (17-31), as a matter of fact if you were to set aside that 14 point loss to Tampa, you would find their other four losses were by an average of 5.5 points.
Carolina enters this contest with extra rest having played last Thursday which was a 17-25 loss to Atlanta, however, don't lose sight of the fact that Carolina played that Thursday nighter on four days rest after a heartbreaking 24-27 loss at New Orleans which makes me think these Panthers were not prepared mentally to face Atlanta on that short week.
In the big picture, Carolina has had the extra rest to recharge their collective batteries and they should be the more focused team in this contest. A check of the SOS (strength of schedule) season to date reveals that Kansas City has faced the NFL's 30th ranked schedule while Carolina has gone up against the leagues 11th ranked set of opponents.
Carolina's defense has already played six contests against QB's ranked in the top 15 of the NFL in QB rankings this season, including games against Raider Derek Carr (#8) and Drew Brees (#6) and have also faced the likes of Matt Ryan (twice #11), Tom Brady (#14) and Kyler Murray (#15)....of these superior NFL QB's Carolina has faced this season, Carr and Murray are the most like Chiefs Mahomes (#2) in terms of being a duel threat to pass and/or to take off and run.....Carolina lost to Carr 30-34 and defeated Murray 31-21.
Chief QB is the better QB in this contest over Panther Teddy Bridgewater, but don't blindly think Mahomes is super man and unbeatable. Mahomes enters this contest with a completion rate of 67.3 and a TD to INT ratio of 12 to 1 over his past five outings (Jets, Denver, Buffalo, LV, NE) but a deeper look-see reveals KC's last two opponents were Denver and the Jets who own a combined win/loss record of 3-12 straight up and five of the twelve TD's Mahomes has tossed over his last five outings came last week against the hapless Jets, Mahomes threw no more than two TD's in any of the other four games against Denver, Buffalo, Las Vegas, and New England.
The Chief defense will have to contend with dual threat QB Teddy Bridgewater who for the season has completed 71.6% of his tosses and over his last five outings has a completion rate of 69.6% which is pretty darn consistent, Bridgewater also has a TD to INT ratio of 7 to 4 over his last four contests and for the season is the NFL's 8th ranked passer in terms of yards per pass with a 7.65 and is also ranked 8th in terms of yards per play.
Add it all up and I think Carolina with dual threat QB Bridgewater under center, has a better than average chance of keeping the chains moving and the Chiefs offense on the sidelines watching, I also think these Panthers have a punchers chance at pulling the outright upset over what will probably be an unfocused Chief team....Give me CAROLINA +10.
Take care my friends and be well
Jim
