The Sports Cruncher's 2009 Preseason Week #1 Write Ups

[Sports Cruncher]

Bills vs. Titans

Hall of Fame Game

As a general rule, favorites of more than a point are a dicey proposition in most weeks of the preseason, especially week’s number 1 & 4, where more scrubs see action than your local hospital. Not only that, the general sentiment in this game seems to favor taking the points with the Bills as their scrubs may be playing for more roster spots than their counterparts on the Titans. Add to that the general preseason trend of teams with poor records in the prior year doing better than teams with a good winning record, and suddenly I have a bit of a contrarian play on my hands, so here we go, 2009 NFL!
Nobody's at home for this game in Ohio. Is that to imply that nobody will show up for this first preseason game of the year? Not entirely. It is a nationally televised game, which should get the blood pumping a little bit more for all players who find playing time. Being a week #1 game, nearly the entire training camp roster should see the field at some point. And hey, it’s football – pride and testosterone take over once you’re lining up against an opponent.

Kerry Collins is locked in as the Titans’ starting quarterback, and being long in the tooth he should see very little, if any time on the field this game, as this is his first training camp being #1 on the depth chart. The real story here involves Vince Young and newly acquired 3rd string QB, Patrick Ramsey. Ramsey has more career NFL pass attempts than Young (913 to 775) and a higher career QB rating (74.9 to 68.8). The average QB rating of the 2nd string QBs in training camps (with more than 50 career pass attempts) right now is 75.5, close to Ramsey's rating, while the average QB rating of 3rd string QBs in camps (with once again more than 50 career pass attempts) is 69.6, closer to Vince Young's rating. So, denials of any competition for the 2nd string QB spot aside, which QB looks more suited for the task of the position based on career numbers? Both Young and Ramsey know that serious playing time in the regular season/playoffs is a distinct possibility if 1. The elderly Collins is injured (though the Titan's O-line was fantastic at protecting him last year, and are all returning this year) and 2. They perform well in preseason games. Vince Young played a lot more in the preseason games last year than a starting QB normally does, with the intention by Coach Fisher, I suspect, of seeing if he could really be the starter. Turns out the answer was “No.” Young should play a lot of series this preseason to see where he’s at as well.

With this kind of experience and motivation (if not stellar ability) at the 2nd and 3rd string QB positions, I expect the Titans to be a threat to score fairly deep into the contest. At 4th position on the QB roster for the Titans is the rookie Alex Mortensen out of Arkansas. A 4th string QB on the roster is never a good thing for teams who you'd like to cover a point spread in the preseason, but they tend to see significantly less playing time than the 2nd and 3rd string QBs. Preseason week #4 is where 4th string QBs saw the most playing time last year, followed by the 1st, 2nd and 3rd weeks, in that order.

The Bills will have a new 3RD/4th string QB of their own in this game, Matt Baker, who spent his rookie season with the Cowboys last year, and who is still a regular season playing time virgin.

Trent Edwards comes into the season as the Bills’ starting QB, with arguably the least amount of controversy surrounding this appointment in the last couple of years. He’s the guy, and J.P. Losman is out of Buffalo. Behind Edwards at #2 is Ryan Fitzpatrick, who played for the Bengals in Carson Palmer’s lengthy injury absence last year. That was not an easy position to be in, playing from behind in most games, and Fitzpatrick managed only a 66.9 QB rating. So, Edwards should get 2 series tops in this game, and Fitzpatrick 3 or 4. At that point it will be up to Dick Jauron to decide on how to split the remaining series between 4th string Baker and 3rd string Gibran Hamdam, who has been preseason cannon fodder for Jauron for at least a couple of years now, but has a grand total of 2 pass attempts in the regular season.

And to top it off, OC Schonert will be employing a healthy amount of the no-huddle this year, which doesn’t sound promising early on with QBs with limited NFL experience and a completely rebuilt offensive line that will probably fair better in the run game than pass protection anyway. Any way you slice it or dice it, once Edwards leaves the game for the Bills, the Buffalo quarterbacks are going to struggle. Heck, they’re going to struggle before Edwards hits the bench, as his 79.1 career QB rating is bound to find it tough going against the Titan’s defensive starters or even 2nd stringers.

So the quarterback rotation advantage in this game is firmly on the side of Tennessee.

Coach Jauron is apparently not one to chase the fool’s gold of preseason wins, as his record is a poor 12-20 in preseason games, though the Bills have done better in their first game of the preseason than the remaining others. Maybe with his perennially below average talent, he knows that his best chance to not be shut out in the preseason is in weeks 1 & 4 so he tries a little harder then. Just speculating, lol. Though his job is perhaps approaching the hot seat bubble, unless I hear otherwise, there’s no reason to expect anything that far out of the norm for Jauron and the Bills this preseason in terms of playing the starters deeper than normal. Coach Fisher for the Titans has a 27-21 preseason record. Fisher is a top-notch coach and they have a top-notch system in Tennessee, which gives them superior depth on the roster which leads to more preseason wins.

A key factor for success in the NFL is offensive line continuity. The Titans are returning all 5 starters, which will help them for at least a portion of this game. The Bills lost their disgruntled but lone Pro-Bowl caliber offensive lineman, Jason Peters, to the Eagles during the offseason, and may actually be starting new players at all 5 spots this year. Good luck getting that sorted out early in the year, Buffalo!

In spite of bringing in Terrell Owens at WR and having a couple of good running backs, I’m not sure how the Bills are going to have any offensive success in this game with their completely rebuilt offensive line and poor depth at QB versus a good Titans’ defense. The Titans, with experienced QBs battling for the backup role, a solidly built franchise with a superior head coach with a much better preseason record (where preseason records are typically not indicative of actual team strength – see the Lions 4-0 preseason record of last year. The fact that the Titans would wax the Bills during the regular season has no bearing here) and a phenomenal returning offensive line, should cruise to victory and a cover.

A play on the Titans has the least amount of value of all my recommended preseason plays (especially now that -2.5 at normal juice is no longer available), so it’s just a smaller 0.7% bankroll play, a little something to whet the appetite in the first game of the season, lol. I wouldn’t take the Titans at -3 without some kind of positive juice. Your best option may be to shop around for the best ML on the Titans, as every point below 3 is of far more importance in preseason games. 1 and 2 point victories are common as coaches are looking to win games late, not tie them, to avoid overtime.

Final Score Projection: Titans 17 – Bills 13

[Sports Cruncher]

Cowboys @ Raiders

The Cowboys should have minimal interest in being competitive in this game, other than coach Phillips’ desire to keep Jerry Jones’ probably rancid breath from tickling the hairs under his shirt collar. The Cowboys have no new coaches or schemes, and no new major starters at key positions. Look for Romo to play one or two series, than newly acquired Jon Kitna to finish out the half, than rookies Carpenter and McGee to balk in the second half while the Raiders pull ahead to a victory. Not only that, but Romo has been a notoriously slow starter in games, so the Cowboys may struggle to score during all phases of this game.

The Raiders, on the other hand, have no rookie QBs on their roster. Heck, until earlier in the week they had as many as 5 QBs with NFL experience on board. Andrew Walter was dealt to the Patriots, so the Raiders’ current rotation will be: Russell, Garcia, Frye, and Gradkowski (with 1-year man Soutwick 5th on the depth). So you’ve got one proven QB, Garcia, and 3 poster childs for mediocrity remaining. Still, these are guys who should do better than rookies seeing any type of NFL action for the first time.

Coach Cable of the Raiders is entering his first preseason as the head man, so I think he’ll feel at least a portion of the rookie coach desire to win preseason games, especially with a meddling owner lurking vulture-like in the rafters as well. On the balance, the Raiders are a team looking to carry the bit of positive mojo they got from ending last season on an up note through this preseason and hopefully into the regular season before it runs dry.

Another rookie coach and QB battle combination that should lead to a preweek game #1 victory. The line was OAK -1 when I created my first preseason lines last week and posted the recommended play. The line has since moved to -2.

Final Score Prediction: Raiders 21 – Cowboys 14

[rake922]

solid....

[flyingillini]

Love your avatar

[rake922]

That's really his ex-wife?

[Sports Cruncher]

hehe, just changed the avatar.

[Sports Cruncher]

Garcia out for the Raiders, but still plenty of value.

[DacBietViet]

Love the raiders..

[Shortstop]

Good Luck Crunch. I'll definitely be watching this.

[ijustwant2bpaid]

me too, welcome sports crunch if u ever get the chance to read this...

[SportNut]

Very solid indeed...impressive

[MexicanStallion]

Nice work here. Thanks for the write ups. Keep up the good work

[Sports Cruncher]

Thanks, gents. I did well avoiding the 3 point dogs last night, but like several the rest of the week, starting with...



Bengals @ Saints

Drew Brees’ mother passed away suddenly last Friday in Colorado. Monday he was back in camp, for better or worse. Grieving while preparing for the first preseason game of the year may make it hard to focus all the time, but Drew is as mentally tough as any QB out there. He’ll probably get 1 series in this game, leaving backups Brunnel and Harrington to battle for the backup role. How much the unfortunate death affects the intensity of the team heading into this game – well, it’s impossible for me to know, but I’m deducting a point from the spread from the Saints for the distraction/grieving/sympathies involved. Life is bigger than football.

With Brunnel and Harrington playing the majority of the game, the Saints will always have a quarterback in the game with good NFL experience and the ability to manage a game. Indeed, no other team has as much combined experience at the 2nd and 3rd string QB position as the Saints. They proved last year after numerous injuries to their WR and TE corps that they have pretty good depth at those positions as well. The Saints vertical attack should get a bit more horizontal once Brees leaves the game, which won’t be far into this contest. And so we reach the end of the positive things you can say about the Saints.

Their run game and defense were sub-par last year, and probably won’t be much improved this year, good intentions aside. They’ve got a new DC with Gregg Williams, but just don’t look to have the bodies or depth to take advantage of the wide assortment of defensive looks he wants to implement this year. So while the Saints will be creating a lot of confusion with their defensive formations and schemes, how much of that confusion they can shift onto their offensive opponent’s remains to be seen. The Saints were torched by big plays repeatedly last year, and should suffer a similar fate, at least early in the season.

The Bengals, in spite of suffering through a miserable 2008 campaign, have kept their coaching staff intact. Obviously, injuries on both sides of the ball shot their season down early, none so costly as losing QB Carson Palmer a few games in. Starting fresh with a mostly healthy roster (their tight ends are in bad shape right now after losing Reggie Kelly for the year and Ben Utecht getting his bell rung in a bad way), the Bengals are poised to surprise with some good covers early in the season. Well, no game is earlier than preseason week #1, and I have them covering here. Granted, things get pretty hair at QB after Carson leaves the game (he’ll play a minimum 2 series, I believe). It’s up to J.T. O’Turnover Sullivan and “Yes, I’m actually his brother” Jordan Palmer to not fudge things up too badly for the rest of the team. It will be a fun matchup to see how the Saints new defensive aggression fairs versus the extremely unpredictable O’Sullivan. There’s going to be a big play most times he drops back to pass, for one team or the other. Jordan Palmer at least has the advantage of having spent a season with the team, so he may surprise with a few well-executed plays.

Teams built on offensive finesse and timing, like the Saints, Colts (under Dungy), Cards and Eagles, all have losing preseason records with their current or most recent coaches. These teams defenses tend to mirror their offenses, being built on speed and pass defense well suited to protect the lead their potent offenses have gotten them.

Smash-mouth, physical running teams tend to fair better in the preseason, as this style of ball fairs better deeper into the roster with a perhaps more simplified run-centric playbook that is easier to execute. Teams that have traditionally favored the run, the Jaguars, Panthers and Bucs fit this description, and all have excellent preseason records under their current or most recent coaches. Now, how much of this preseason spunk is down to the coaches desire to win or the schemes built on their finesse or physical styles is open to some debate, I reckon, but scanning over the records of preseason coaches my reasoning stands up pretty well. Mike Shanahan had a stellar preseason record, and though the Broncos have traditionally been a more finesse than physical team, they’ve almost always had an excellent run game. Belichick has a winning preseason record as well, but Bill is Bill, the best coach in the league, and he’s been able to compliment Brady’s terrific passing attack with a good run game and a physical defense for the most part.

To be fair, Sean Payton’s preseason record isn’t far on the losing side at 6-7, and Marvin Lewis’ preseason record for the Bengals is 12-12. But that really kind of sums it up – the Bengals are a little bit more physical and this game that will see very little of Drew Brees is really up for grabs, meaning there’s great value on the Bengals getting 3 points.

Final Score Prediction: Bengals 20 – Saints 17

[spongerat]

wow good work, your score predictions were somewhat close as well

[Sports Cruncher]

The Over 16 2nd half worth a shot in the CIN/NO game, as it's tied right now. 7 points by each team is an automatic winner, but the points will need to come not too late in the game, where coaches won't play for a tie.

[Sports Cruncher]

Well, after hitting both side and total in the two earlier games today I guess I couldn't stave off bad luck forever this season, lol. Curse of the write up! The Bengals outgain the Saints in yards but lose the turnover battle. Looks like Orton's turnovers are going to make it 2 down in a row, lol.

[Sports Cruncher]

Bears @ Bills

The Bills now have one preseason game under their belts, so they’re heading into their 2nd preweek #1 game, as the 2 teams that play in the Hall of Fame game play in 5 preseason games, instead of the usual 4. In the HOF game, Edwards to TO was good for 2 quick receptions, and Edwards was looking fairly sharp until an interception derailed his first drive. Overall, the Buffalo passing game looked pretty good while running the no-huddle offense for the entire game. Edwards went 3 for 4 with the pick, playing only one series. Next in was Fitzpatrick who went 6 for 11 with no picks or tds. Preseason pro Hamdan went a very impressive 11 for 13 with no picks or tds. Rookie Baker went 2 for 4 with a pick ending Buffalo’s final drive of the game. While Buffalo was able to move the ball pretty well through the air in the middle of the field, they didn’t run the ball very well and were unable to score any offensive touchdowns. Edwards will probably be bumped up to starting 2 series in this game.

The Jay Cutler era in Chicago gets underway with this game. He’s purportedly got a very good grasp of the offense already and should see 2 or 3 series in this game, I think. Behind Cutler the Bears have only the inexperienced Hanie and Basanez, a good reason to give Cutler the 2 or 3 series here.

While the Bills didn’t run the ball effectively in the HOF game, the Titans ran it even worse, though they did have several obvious running downs in the 2nd half of the game which hurt their averages. The Titans best 2 quarterbacks (Collins and Ramsey) went a combined 15 for 20, so the Bills’ pass defense didn’t have a great day.

The Bears will be featuring the same 4-man front, Tampa-2ish defense they’ve had for a while. While another team in their division, the Packers, made an offseason switch to the more in vogue 3-4 line, the Bears remain unswayed. Perhaps they should have considered it, considering that their linebacking corps is the strength of their defense with Urlacher, Briggs and now Roach, and also their deepest. These guys defend the pass pretty well, too. But no, the Bears will stick with their 4 defensive lineman, hoping that they can eat up enough offensive lineman for the linebackers to make plays. Early in the season, however, dipping into your freezer for the vanilla left over from last year means everybody will feel at home from the get go – at least for guys that have been around for a year. Also, as teams generally don’t get blitz-crazy in the preseason as a gentleman’s agreement between coaches, the Bears won’t have to think too hard about which non-lineman to bring on passing plays, as I’m pretty sure they don’t incorporate much zone-blitzing into their defense.

I think the Bears with Cutler at the helm will get out of the gate faster than the Bills, and will actually have the halftime lead. The Bills’ backup QBs will outperform the Bears’ in the second half, but the endzone will be an elusive target for them once again, with the Bears hanging on for the narrow upset. I do like the Under in this game, but with totals this low, it only takes a couple of big defensive or special teams plays to send the game Over the total. The Bills no-huddle more up-tempo offense is another thorn in the side of the Under. I wouldn’t be that surprised if there are no offensive touchdowns after the first quarter of this game, and am willing to put minimum plays on both the Bears and the Under here.

Final Score Prediction: Bears 14 – Bills 13

[fsugolf]

Nice writeups and good to see you over here sports cruncher (from the rx as well)

[Sports Cruncher]

Wrote this 4-5 days ago, I still like the Browns SU and the Under

Browns @ Packers

There’s really only one story of significance for the Packers heading into this season, and that’s the hiring of Dom Capers as defensive coordinator, and his switching of the Packer’s defense from a 4-3 to a 3-4. Sackmeister Aaron Kampman will be moved to linebacker, giving him more flexibility in ways to attack the quarterback. Historically, average defenses that have switched schemes have struggled early in the season but then improved to finish up rated a little bit higher than the previous year.

The Browns, on the other hand, hit control/alt/delete on their coaching staff after a poor year and have brought in Mangini, freshly released from the Jets, to take a turn at the helm in Cleveland. He brought OC Brian Daboll with him, and added DC Rob Ryan, lately of the Raiders. A new head coach usually means a little extra push to win early, so a slight advantage to the Browns in that regard.

At quarterback, the Packers have nobody with NFL experience behind Aaron Rodgers, which doesn’t bode well for a week #1 game where the starting QB typically plays 2 series of less. The Browns, of course, have what is probably the most well known QB battle in the league with Quinn and Anderson vying for the starting job. The most recent camp reports have Quinn doing a better job, though Anderson has been getting more of the first team offensive work. To complicate matters, Mangini also brought over backup QB Ratliff from the Jets, a guy who has looked good in camps and preseason action in his short time in the league. All signs point to the Browns having a sizable advantage at the QB position once Mr. Rodgers joins his first string neighbors on the bench.

The points are a gift, as the new head coach with his trio of dueling quarterbacks should win this road game straight up. The Browns +3 at normal juice was available across the board earlier, but as of this writing is heavily slanted to the Browns, as it looks like most of the money coming in can see the obvious reasons to like the Brownies here.

This is my highest rated play of preweek #1 at 1.5 units. I like the Under 34.5 in this contest as well for a more modest 2/3 units.

Final Score Prediction: Browns 17 – Packers 14

[Sports Cruncher]

Wrote this 4-5 days ago, before the Over skyrocketed above 37. I’d pass on the Over but still like the Chiefs a little bit here.

Texans & Chiefs

The Todd Haley (head coach)/Scott Pioli (GM) era in Kansas City begins with this home game. Advantage KC with a new coach trying to steer the team in a new, winning direction. The Chief’s don’t even have to learn a new offense as offensive coordinator Chan Gailey was retained. Probably a good move. It was the Chief’s defense that let the team down last year, not the offense – hence a new defensive coordinator, Clancy Pendergast, who coached with Haley in Arizona last year.

The Chiefs do have a new quarterback to install in the old offense, Matt Cassel, but in preweek #1 he’ll play 25% of the game at best. The good news for Chiefs backers is that the 2nd and 3rd string quarterback positions are manned by two players who played a lot of ball during the regular season for the Chiefs last year, Brodie Croyle, and Tyler Thigpen. While neither one of these gentleman sport great QB ratings, they have the advantage of familiarity with the system over the 2nd and 3rd string quarterbacks of the Texans, Grossman and Orlovsky, who were both made Texans during the offseason. Heck, neither one of them has a very good QB rating either. What may be a small advantage for the Texans is that they have no 4th string QB on the roster currently, while the Chiefs have Ingle Martin. If Martin sees playing time, it will most likely be in preweeks #1 and #4.

The Texans have one new coach of significance this season, hiring Frank Bush as defensive coordinator. For those keeping score, that means that both teams will be running familiar offenses with all quarterbacks down to 3rd position on the depth charts having regular season experience, versus two new defensive coordinators/schemes. Both teams had far superior offenses than defenses last year, so defensive depth is not one thing you’re likely to see on either one of these rosters. The Texans will be without CB Jacques Reeves, out with a broken leg, and CB Dunta Robinson hasn’t been in camp yet because of a contract dispute. The Texans were just now forced to bring in old hand Deltha O’Neal to play a little corner while hearts and legs are healing. If this were a regular season game, you’d see the total nearing 50 between these two offensively top-heavy teams.

For all the reasons listed in the above paragraph I like the total to go Over the currently available 35. I also like the team with the rookie head coach, the Chiefs, to win and cover the spread.

Final Score Prediction: Chiefs 21 – Texans 16

[twentyonekid]

good luck SPC

[Sports Cruncher]

Thx, kid, but luck left us like a dead-beat dad on the night games. Minus seven turnover ratio on the 3 games I threw up there. The curse of the write up -- they jinx my ass hard. Was up good for the week, now down a little.

[twentyonekid]

Thx, kid, but luck left us like a dead-beat dad on the night games. Minus seven turnover ratio on the 3 games I threw up there. The curse of the write up -- they jinx my ass hard. Was up good for the week, now down a little.

you;ll get it back buddy,..not to worry

[dj80d]

not close on any of your plays

[Sports Cruncher]

not close on any of your plays

I tend to only post write ups for my plays that are going to go horribly wrong. Did I have Seattle and Atlanta today? Yes. Write ups? No, lol. Minus 8 turnover ratio combined on the 4 write up games. 2 of the 4 teams outgained their opponents and still lost by 10 each. Last regular season for all the games the average was 14.8 yards of offense per point scored. For the four write ups? 1102 yards of offense for 37 points scored, an average of 29.8 yards per offensive point scored, almost exactly half the amount of points that will normally be scored for the yards. The two teams that gained the least amount of yards...the two teams I also bet the Under on (split after Buffalo gets two TD drives starting at the Chicago 5). Do these stretches of bad luck happen? Yes. Should I have won all 4 games? No. CHI and CLE didn't deserve to win, CIN did, and KC it could've gone either way. So I get to look like an ass on this fine Saturday because of the write up jinx, lol.

[SportNut]

Great work...from rx also

[Sports Cruncher]

Okay, time to break the write up turnover jinx here, folks, lol. I also like CAR and the Over in the other game, and have picked up 1.5 points on the total in that game getting 32.5, and 2 points on the total for the JAX/MIA game, nabbing the near opener of 31.5. As both of these games rate to be close, getting an Over that is below 33 is a nice bonus, as 33 is a fairly key number in preseason games, as a late touchdown by a team that makes the score 16-17 means they'll go for 2 leaving the final total on 33 or 35, as happened in the SF/DEN game, where all of us with the Over 34 in the game saw our sudden 50/50 chance of a cover crawl up luck's ass and die.

Jaguars @ Dolphins

There was only one major coaching change for either one of these teams during the offseason – the Jaguars brought in Mel Tucker to be defensive coordinator. Their defensive scheme will stay mostly the same, as far as I know, with head coach Del Rio being more involved on that side of the ball than he’s been in the past.

Offensively, the Jaguars hope to keep their O-line healthy this year, their main failing early last season. The Jaguars’ starting O-line will feature many new faces this season, which usually leads to early struggles. The Dolphins had great luck with their O-line health last year, not losing a body until LG Smiley broke a leg more than halfway through the regular season. Other than that, the unit was intact, and 4 of the 5 starters will be back in place this year.

I think Miami’s main objective in this game will be to give backup QB’s Henne and newly drafted White some snaps running basic plays. You know Miami will be using the versatile White in some Wildcat formations this year – I’m just not sure that Miami is interested in tipping off the rest of the league as to what these plays will be in the preseason. Mark Pennington down for two series at best tonight, as preserving his health is paramount to the success of the team. Word has it that Henne has looked really sharp in camp and that Ricky Williams is in better shape than last year – not so good for a play on the Jags, but good for the Over, lol. Pat White, on the other hand, has had a hard time going through his reads and getting rid of the ball before the 3 second sack bell is rung. Being preweek game #1, I’d expect Henne and White to play a fairly equal amount of series.

Coach Del Rio of the Jaguars is a bit of a meathead in that he likes to risk injuries to his starting QBs by playing them more series than average in the preseason. Last year Garrard got a minimum of 3 series in all 4 pre games. This goes a long way to explaining why Del Rio has the best preseason winning % of any coach that has been with his team for at least a few years, compiling a 17-7 record.

The Jaguars, like the Dolphins, don’t have much NFL experience behind their starting QBs, but they at least have one veteran, Todd Bouman, who brings his dozen years of bench riding in the NFL to the Jags this year. Todd sports 230 career pass attempts in 12 years with his now 6th different team. If he can remember which side he’s throwing to when on the field he may have a little bit of success in this contest. 3rd on the Jags depth chart is 2nd year Tulsa man Paul Smith. Neither team has a 4th QB currently, as it appears the Jags no longer have rookie Todd Boeckman on the roster. So Bouman and Smith versus Henne and White is pretty near a draw.

This game should play out, actually, to something pretty near a draw, unless the Dolphins decide to start running the new Wildcat plays they’ll use with White. The total in this game opened at 31.5 & 32. Both of these teams had below average defenses last year, while only the Dolphins had an above average offense, as injuries and poor depth at WR kept the Jag offense from being it’s usually potent running machine self.

So while neither team has enough offensive depth to turn this into an above average scoring game for preweek #1 (34-35 points), neither does either team have enough defense to turn it into a decidedly below average scoring game for preweek #1, which is where this total at 31.5 opened. I see two possible outcomes for this game. 1. The Dolphins run a vanilla offense with Henne and White, and the Jaguars win a close one. 2. The Dolphins open up the playbook and score a little more, prompting the competitive Del Rio to try and keep pace, pushing this game over the low total and still providing the Jags with a chance at covering the +3. So I’m thinking wagers on the Jags +3 and the Over 31.5 will result in a split at worst.

Final Score Prediction: Jaguars 20 – Dolphins 17

[Sports Cruncher]

Things started swimmingly during this first ever attempt at preseason handicapping. On both Thursday and Friday I momentarily got as high as +5 units, only to slide back to -1 on Saturday after a rash of turnovers across several games, and ended up the week minus a play with a little extra juice at -1.14. The turnovers did in fact continue through Monday night -- an even split in JAX/Miami, but -4 with the Panthers butter fingers 4 losing fumbles. JAX outgained by Miami by 25 yards and lost by 3. CAR had 3 less yards than the Giants and lost by 7 with the end of the game sack/fumble/touchdown. I wasn't watching the end of the game, having taken my son to the park instead (tivo as usual missed recording the last 3 minutes) -- did the Panthers' QB just give the ball to the Giants to run it in and end the game? Coach Fox is really to blame for not covering us the spread in this one. After Cantwell's impressive TD drive with less than 3 minutes to play, Fox went for, and go the tie. WTF? It's preseason, Johnny, just kick the extra point and then try an onside kick for practice and everybody can go home when the clock expires one way or the other. Way to complicate things by tying the game with just 2 minutes left. Lame.
Oh yeah, and thanks JAX and Miami for going 0 for 5 in the red zone -- that's reallllly going to help my Over. The teams combined for enough yards to score 36 points by the averages. Coach Del Rio -- when you're obviously going to go for it on 4th down , not playing for the tie (did you see that, coach Fox?) with less than 3 minutes to go, facing 3rd and 4 on the Miami 5, why not run the ball, as it's the strength of your team, instead of letting your rook throw 2 incompletions? Coach Del Rio, we all thought you liked to win preaseson games! Way to go, meathead!