WEEK #7
Written Wednesday October 16th, 2019 at 3 PM Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
PICK: Miami Dolphins +17 at Buffalo Bills (rated 1 star)
The Dolphins are 1-4 against the spread this season, while the Bills are 4-1 ATS. Buffalo is also coming off its bye week. And you know I like the Bills after betting $10,000 on them to win at least 7 games this year. So why the heck am I picking Miami, then?
The main reason is this is a huge spread to cover for a team whose offense is not clicking yet. The Bills are scoring an average of 18 points per game. Suppose the Dolphins score just 10 points this weekend, this means Buffalo must score at least 28 points to beat the spread. It won’t be easy and I am betting this event has less than a 50% chance of happening.
I am aware that Miami has allowed an average of 36 points per game. But the Redskins also have a struggling offense and they only scored 17 in Miami last week. This is a divisional game and I expect the Dolphins to give a good fight and keep it close.
Sure, the Bills will be well-rested; they needed it after many players got hurt when they beat the Titans, including center Mitch Morse and linebacker Matt Milano. However, Miami is coming off three straight weeks where they stayed at home, including their bye week a couple of weeks ago.
After claiming Josh Rosen would be the starting quarterback for the rest of the year, head coach Brian Flores announced Ryan Fitzpatrick would get the start in Buffalo. The news just broke an hour before I posted this article. From a betting perspective, I like it because I do think Fitzpatrick gives the Dolphins a better chance of winning.
Bills win a surprisingly tight game.
LEAN #1: Houston Texans +1 at Indianapolis Colts
If you like this play, I recommend placing your bet early because I wouldn’t be surprised if Houston becomes the favorite by Sunday.
There have been several occasions this year where my betting angles recommended betting a team, but my own analysis wanted to bet their opponent. In those cases, I stayed away from the game. And in almost all instances, I should have picked the team I wanted to bet based on my own judgment.
This time, I’m gonna do it. The Colts have an edge based on rest since they are coming off their bye week, and it will also be their fourth game at home out of the past five weeks (by counting the bye week as a “home game”).
Normally, I would have tend to avoid the Texans since they might letdown after upsetting the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
But I’m going to go with my gut and bet Houston. For every game, I try to assess a “fair” line before looking at the actual spread. In this case, I thought the Texans would be 2.5 or 3-point favorites. I was stunned they were slight underdogs.I firmly believe they will go on a great run and be Super Bowl contenders, especially in a weak AFC conference.
The Texans are 4-2, but could easily be 5-1. Remember the Week #1 Monday Night game where they were defeated 30-28 in New Orleans on a 58-yard field goal as time expired. And their only other loss was a 16-10 stinker against Carolina. But the Panthers don’t look so bad now after winning their past four matchups.
Houston also faced tougher competition. Their opponents hold an 18-18 record, while Indy’s opponents are 12-17. The Colts’ largest win occurred by a 6-point margin.
Jacoby Brissett has done a good job thus far, but I trust Deshaun Watson a lot more. Houston wins and gets additional breathing room as AFC South division leaders.
LEAN #2: Washington Redskins +10 vs San Francisco 49ers
This is the makeup for a letdown game by the Niners. They are all excited from making a big statement against the Rams and it will be easy to look past the lowly Redskins.
I may be the only person in my camp, but I think Case Keenum is not that bad. I’m not saying he is a great quarterback, but he can do some good things. Along with rookie Terry McLaurin, they can put some points on the board.
San Francisco will also be traveling through 3 time zones to play a 1 PM Eastern Time game.
And don’t forget the Niners will be missing two key offensive linemen: Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey.
Overall, the 49ers faced very weak teams, whose combined record this season is just 9-21.
I like the Skins to keep it a 10-point game or less.
LEAN #3: Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Denver Broncos
It looked like Kansas City was going to cruise easily to a division title, especially with the Chargers crashing down. But hold on a second! The Chiefs are now going through a slump themselves, with the Raiders now breathing down their neck.
The Chiefs did not cover the spread in each of their past four games. Meanwhile, the Broncos have beaten the spread on two straight occasions. Will the trend continue or not? I say: no!
The Chiefs lost their last two games, both at home. It might be a good thing to go on the road, where there won’t be as much pressure to do well. Maybe K.C. is trying to do too much. Playing in a tough environment like Denver, they’ll focus on executing things well and not trying to be too fancy.
If you’ve been following me for a while, you know I like betting elite teams following a straight up loss. Not only do the Chiefs meet those criteria, but this angle seems to do even better on “focus” games, which includes playing on Thursday Night Football on a non-standard practice week.
The Chiefs are 4-2 despite facing good teams. If you remove the games against the Chiefs, their opponents hold a 16-10-1 record. As a comparison, Denver’s opponents are posting a 13-15 record (after removing matchups versus the Broncos).
Denver is coming off a nice shutout performance against the Titans. They’ll realize quickly that Kansas City has much more firepower on offense, though.
Sammy Watkins has a fairly good chance of suiting up this Thursday. However, Eric Fisher is still out and Cam Erving is questionable. If he can’t go, K.C. would have to call their third-string left tackle. They are also thin on the defensive line and have a couple of guys whose status is uncertain right now.
There are a couple of things that prevent me from making it an official pick. First, the revenge factor. Denver lost both meetings in 2018 by 6 and 7-point margins. Also, the Broncos will be playing a third game at home out of their past four matches.
Let’s make some $$$$$$$$ this week!
Professor MJ
Written Wednesday October 16th, 2019 at 3 PM Eastern Time (spreads/odds may have changed)
PICK: Miami Dolphins +17 at Buffalo Bills (rated 1 star)
The Dolphins are 1-4 against the spread this season, while the Bills are 4-1 ATS. Buffalo is also coming off its bye week. And you know I like the Bills after betting $10,000 on them to win at least 7 games this year. So why the heck am I picking Miami, then?
The main reason is this is a huge spread to cover for a team whose offense is not clicking yet. The Bills are scoring an average of 18 points per game. Suppose the Dolphins score just 10 points this weekend, this means Buffalo must score at least 28 points to beat the spread. It won’t be easy and I am betting this event has less than a 50% chance of happening.
I am aware that Miami has allowed an average of 36 points per game. But the Redskins also have a struggling offense and they only scored 17 in Miami last week. This is a divisional game and I expect the Dolphins to give a good fight and keep it close.
Sure, the Bills will be well-rested; they needed it after many players got hurt when they beat the Titans, including center Mitch Morse and linebacker Matt Milano. However, Miami is coming off three straight weeks where they stayed at home, including their bye week a couple of weeks ago.
After claiming Josh Rosen would be the starting quarterback for the rest of the year, head coach Brian Flores announced Ryan Fitzpatrick would get the start in Buffalo. The news just broke an hour before I posted this article. From a betting perspective, I like it because I do think Fitzpatrick gives the Dolphins a better chance of winning.
Bills win a surprisingly tight game.
LEAN #1: Houston Texans +1 at Indianapolis Colts
If you like this play, I recommend placing your bet early because I wouldn’t be surprised if Houston becomes the favorite by Sunday.
There have been several occasions this year where my betting angles recommended betting a team, but my own analysis wanted to bet their opponent. In those cases, I stayed away from the game. And in almost all instances, I should have picked the team I wanted to bet based on my own judgment.
This time, I’m gonna do it. The Colts have an edge based on rest since they are coming off their bye week, and it will also be their fourth game at home out of the past five weeks (by counting the bye week as a “home game”).
Normally, I would have tend to avoid the Texans since they might letdown after upsetting the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium.
But I’m going to go with my gut and bet Houston. For every game, I try to assess a “fair” line before looking at the actual spread. In this case, I thought the Texans would be 2.5 or 3-point favorites. I was stunned they were slight underdogs.I firmly believe they will go on a great run and be Super Bowl contenders, especially in a weak AFC conference.
The Texans are 4-2, but could easily be 5-1. Remember the Week #1 Monday Night game where they were defeated 30-28 in New Orleans on a 58-yard field goal as time expired. And their only other loss was a 16-10 stinker against Carolina. But the Panthers don’t look so bad now after winning their past four matchups.
Houston also faced tougher competition. Their opponents hold an 18-18 record, while Indy’s opponents are 12-17. The Colts’ largest win occurred by a 6-point margin.
Jacoby Brissett has done a good job thus far, but I trust Deshaun Watson a lot more. Houston wins and gets additional breathing room as AFC South division leaders.
LEAN #2: Washington Redskins +10 vs San Francisco 49ers
This is the makeup for a letdown game by the Niners. They are all excited from making a big statement against the Rams and it will be easy to look past the lowly Redskins.
I may be the only person in my camp, but I think Case Keenum is not that bad. I’m not saying he is a great quarterback, but he can do some good things. Along with rookie Terry McLaurin, they can put some points on the board.
San Francisco will also be traveling through 3 time zones to play a 1 PM Eastern Time game.
And don’t forget the Niners will be missing two key offensive linemen: Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey.
Overall, the 49ers faced very weak teams, whose combined record this season is just 9-21.
I like the Skins to keep it a 10-point game or less.
LEAN #3: Kansas City Chiefs -3 at Denver Broncos
It looked like Kansas City was going to cruise easily to a division title, especially with the Chargers crashing down. But hold on a second! The Chiefs are now going through a slump themselves, with the Raiders now breathing down their neck.
The Chiefs did not cover the spread in each of their past four games. Meanwhile, the Broncos have beaten the spread on two straight occasions. Will the trend continue or not? I say: no!
The Chiefs lost their last two games, both at home. It might be a good thing to go on the road, where there won’t be as much pressure to do well. Maybe K.C. is trying to do too much. Playing in a tough environment like Denver, they’ll focus on executing things well and not trying to be too fancy.
If you’ve been following me for a while, you know I like betting elite teams following a straight up loss. Not only do the Chiefs meet those criteria, but this angle seems to do even better on “focus” games, which includes playing on Thursday Night Football on a non-standard practice week.
The Chiefs are 4-2 despite facing good teams. If you remove the games against the Chiefs, their opponents hold a 16-10-1 record. As a comparison, Denver’s opponents are posting a 13-15 record (after removing matchups versus the Broncos).
Denver is coming off a nice shutout performance against the Titans. They’ll realize quickly that Kansas City has much more firepower on offense, though.
Sammy Watkins has a fairly good chance of suiting up this Thursday. However, Eric Fisher is still out and Cam Erving is questionable. If he can’t go, K.C. would have to call their third-string left tackle. They are also thin on the defensive line and have a couple of guys whose status is uncertain right now.
There are a couple of things that prevent me from making it an official pick. First, the revenge factor. Denver lost both meetings in 2018 by 6 and 7-point margins. Also, the Broncos will be playing a third game at home out of their past four matches.
Let’s make some $$$$$$$$ this week!
Professor MJ