WEEK #5
PICK: Chicago Bears -5 against Oakland Raiders (rated 4 stars)
I was that close to rating it 5 stars as well. I love this play. Let’s call it 4.5 stars. There are still a few bookies with a point spread of 5, but most have now moved it to 5.5. Get on this one before the line changes too much.
The Raiders won’t be in super shape after traveling that much. They crossed the country to play in Minnesota, in Indianapolis, and now in England!?! Wow!! That’s an incredibly tough stretch.
Oakland might also letdown after making a nice upset in Indianapolis last week. However, you could argue that the Bears could also be less motivated after getting a key victory against the Vikings, a division rival.
Oakland’s best wide receiver, Tyrell Williams, is still beaten up. His offensive coordinator said he’s “hopeful” that Williams will be able to suit up this Sunday.
Can’t you feel the Chicago train is picking up some speed? They started the season slowly by losing 10-3 to the Packers and then squeaking by the Broncos, thanks for a 53-yard field goal as time expired. Since then, they were dominant against the Redskins and the Vikings.
Even before the season began, in my NFC North preview, I was claiming I wasn’t convinced that Mitch Trubisky was a good quarterback. He’s been struggling most of the season thus far.He got hurt last week, and backup Chase Daniel looked better than him. He led the Bears to 4 scores in his first 5 drives off the bench against a more than decent Minnesota defense. I trust Matt Nagy to keep designing plays that are well-suited for him.
LEAN #1: Los Angeles Rams +1.5 at Seattle Seahawks
When I picked the Eagles in the Thursday Night game last week, many people asked whether I was worried about taking the road team on a short week. I was indeed worried about it, but the fact that they were such a desperate team still enticed me to pick them over Green Bay.
I looked into the numbers to verify if road teams do tend to struggle in Thursday games. Over the past three years, they went 16-30-3 against the spread (ATS); that’s a very bad 35% success rate. If you look at the three years before that (i.e. the 2013, 2014 and 2015 seasons), road teams went 27-21-3 ATS, which was good for a 56% win rate.Now, if you combine the numbers over those past six years, you get a 43-51-6 record for road teams ATS; that’s a 46% win percentage.
My main conclusion is you want to be cautious with road teams, while not necessarily avoiding them at all costs. If the conditions are right, you might want to bet them. This factor is the main reason why I’m taking the Rams, but not as an official play.
The Rams and the Seahawks have identical 3-1 records. However, Los Angeles’ opponents have a combined 9-7 record compared to 4-11-1 for Seattle’s opponents. In other words, the Rams have faced tougher opposition.One more thing makes me tilt towards Los Angeles: they are coming off a very disappointing home loss to the Bucs. Good teams tend to rebound after a straight up loss.
However, the revenge factor is in favor of the Seahawks since they lost both meetings with the Rams last year. Indeed, Los Angeles won 33-31 in Seattle and 36-31 in L.A.
Neither team has noteworthy injuries, except left tackle Duane Brown who is questionable to play.
A quick bonus for you: I’ve got a collaborator, that I’m going to call JMF, who is a pretty smart guy and analyses matchups rigorously. He recommends betting the following proposition bet: over 4.5 receptions by Brandin Cooks (at -114 with Pinnacle right now).
He mentions how Seattle’s pass defense is below-average and he likes Cooks’ matchup with Tre Flowers, who is the Seahawks’ worst cornerback. Tedric Thompson is also ranked among the worst free safeties around the league. With head coach Sean McVay being good at exploiting favorable matchups, he might design many plays to get Cooks many balls going his way.
LEAN #2: Green Bay Packers +3.5 at Dallas Cowboys
Both teams got off to a fast start in 2019 with three straight victories, followed by a loss last week.
The Cowboys have defeated the Giants, the Redskins and the Dolphins, whose combined record is 2-10. Meanwhile, Green Bay won against the Bears, the Vikings and the Broncos, whose combined record is 5-7.
Notice the Packers are 3-0 at AT&T Stadium, including the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers seems to relish facing Dallas; he has thrown 15 TD passes versus just 2 picks over 8 meetings.
Green Bay gets three extra days of rest after playing the Thursday Night game in Week #4. They are also coming off three straight home games, so they didn’t have to travel for a while. They are coming off a disappointing home loss to the Eagles, so I wouldn’t bet against Aaron Rodgers under these circumstances.
I like Green Bay to either win the game, or lose by a field goal or less.
LEAN #3: New York Jets +13.5 at Philadelphia Eagles
This is clearly a sandwich game for the Eagles. They just racked up an emotional win in Green Bay on primetime television, and they are awaiting matchups against the Vikings and the Cowboys. Facing the Jets this week isn’t the best source of motivation.
Philadelphia gets three extra days of rest after playing last Thursday, but the Jets got even more rest since they were on their bye week. Generally speaking, I love picking winless teams coming off a bye.
Sam Darnold has a chance to play this week. He will probably be a game-time decision. Against a weak Eagles pass defense, it would be a good matchup for him. It would also help the running game. Le’Veon Bell hasn’t been able to get going so far this season, but keep in mind he faced three very strong defensive teams: Buffalo, New England and Cleveland. I could see him breaking out this week.
Have a great weekend!
Professor MJ
PICK: Chicago Bears -5 against Oakland Raiders (rated 4 stars)
I was that close to rating it 5 stars as well. I love this play. Let’s call it 4.5 stars. There are still a few bookies with a point spread of 5, but most have now moved it to 5.5. Get on this one before the line changes too much.
The Raiders won’t be in super shape after traveling that much. They crossed the country to play in Minnesota, in Indianapolis, and now in England!?! Wow!! That’s an incredibly tough stretch.
Oakland might also letdown after making a nice upset in Indianapolis last week. However, you could argue that the Bears could also be less motivated after getting a key victory against the Vikings, a division rival.
Oakland’s best wide receiver, Tyrell Williams, is still beaten up. His offensive coordinator said he’s “hopeful” that Williams will be able to suit up this Sunday.
Can’t you feel the Chicago train is picking up some speed? They started the season slowly by losing 10-3 to the Packers and then squeaking by the Broncos, thanks for a 53-yard field goal as time expired. Since then, they were dominant against the Redskins and the Vikings.
Even before the season began, in my NFC North preview, I was claiming I wasn’t convinced that Mitch Trubisky was a good quarterback. He’s been struggling most of the season thus far.He got hurt last week, and backup Chase Daniel looked better than him. He led the Bears to 4 scores in his first 5 drives off the bench against a more than decent Minnesota defense. I trust Matt Nagy to keep designing plays that are well-suited for him.
LEAN #1: Los Angeles Rams +1.5 at Seattle Seahawks
When I picked the Eagles in the Thursday Night game last week, many people asked whether I was worried about taking the road team on a short week. I was indeed worried about it, but the fact that they were such a desperate team still enticed me to pick them over Green Bay.
I looked into the numbers to verify if road teams do tend to struggle in Thursday games. Over the past three years, they went 16-30-3 against the spread (ATS); that’s a very bad 35% success rate. If you look at the three years before that (i.e. the 2013, 2014 and 2015 seasons), road teams went 27-21-3 ATS, which was good for a 56% win rate.Now, if you combine the numbers over those past six years, you get a 43-51-6 record for road teams ATS; that’s a 46% win percentage.
My main conclusion is you want to be cautious with road teams, while not necessarily avoiding them at all costs. If the conditions are right, you might want to bet them. This factor is the main reason why I’m taking the Rams, but not as an official play.
The Rams and the Seahawks have identical 3-1 records. However, Los Angeles’ opponents have a combined 9-7 record compared to 4-11-1 for Seattle’s opponents. In other words, the Rams have faced tougher opposition.One more thing makes me tilt towards Los Angeles: they are coming off a very disappointing home loss to the Bucs. Good teams tend to rebound after a straight up loss.
However, the revenge factor is in favor of the Seahawks since they lost both meetings with the Rams last year. Indeed, Los Angeles won 33-31 in Seattle and 36-31 in L.A.
Neither team has noteworthy injuries, except left tackle Duane Brown who is questionable to play.
A quick bonus for you: I’ve got a collaborator, that I’m going to call JMF, who is a pretty smart guy and analyses matchups rigorously. He recommends betting the following proposition bet: over 4.5 receptions by Brandin Cooks (at -114 with Pinnacle right now).
He mentions how Seattle’s pass defense is below-average and he likes Cooks’ matchup with Tre Flowers, who is the Seahawks’ worst cornerback. Tedric Thompson is also ranked among the worst free safeties around the league. With head coach Sean McVay being good at exploiting favorable matchups, he might design many plays to get Cooks many balls going his way.
LEAN #2: Green Bay Packers +3.5 at Dallas Cowboys
Both teams got off to a fast start in 2019 with three straight victories, followed by a loss last week.
The Cowboys have defeated the Giants, the Redskins and the Dolphins, whose combined record is 2-10. Meanwhile, Green Bay won against the Bears, the Vikings and the Broncos, whose combined record is 5-7.
Notice the Packers are 3-0 at AT&T Stadium, including the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers seems to relish facing Dallas; he has thrown 15 TD passes versus just 2 picks over 8 meetings.
Green Bay gets three extra days of rest after playing the Thursday Night game in Week #4. They are also coming off three straight home games, so they didn’t have to travel for a while. They are coming off a disappointing home loss to the Eagles, so I wouldn’t bet against Aaron Rodgers under these circumstances.
I like Green Bay to either win the game, or lose by a field goal or less.
LEAN #3: New York Jets +13.5 at Philadelphia Eagles
This is clearly a sandwich game for the Eagles. They just racked up an emotional win in Green Bay on primetime television, and they are awaiting matchups against the Vikings and the Cowboys. Facing the Jets this week isn’t the best source of motivation.
Philadelphia gets three extra days of rest after playing last Thursday, but the Jets got even more rest since they were on their bye week. Generally speaking, I love picking winless teams coming off a bye.
Sam Darnold has a chance to play this week. He will probably be a game-time decision. Against a weak Eagles pass defense, it would be a good matchup for him. It would also help the running game. Le’Veon Bell hasn’t been able to get going so far this season, but keep in mind he faced three very strong defensive teams: Buffalo, New England and Cleveland. I could see him breaking out this week.
Have a great weekend!
Professor MJ