CFL Week 5 Picks/Discussion
Last week turned out to be a very good one as I went 3-1-1 with a gain of over 2.5 units. It could've been a perfect week save for a 4th quarter safety by Montreal that pushed their lead from 15 to 13 and across the line of 14.
I'm once again feeling really good about the week ahead. As I've mentioned, this portion of the season is my favourite and with 4 full games in, there's practically nothing to be gained by analyzing preseason predictions or last years results. Every team has had plenty of opportunity to show exactly what they're capable of. The only problem from here on out is deciphering which teams have the ability to improve or decline.
Season to Date: 8-4-1, +3.9925 units.
Montreal at Edmonton
There's simply not much to say aout this Montreal squad other than the obvious that they're really, really good. Expect the undefeated season talk to start heating up a little bit more in the TSN panel talks and in casual conversations. Although the odds are truly against them performing the feat, they're still going to be the overwhelming favourite in every game they play. Last weeks performance against the TiCats showed their consistency yet again. After a sluggish start which made you wonder about how they'd "get up" for what looked like such an easy win, they started to clamp down and play the way we've come to expect. Calvillo started lighting it up after the first quarter and the defense looked solid. One concern is that as the lead stretched out, the defense began to lay back, allowing "backup" Kevin Glenn to complete easy pass after easy pass and manage 191 yards in his second half. On the bright side, they did contain the Hamilton run game very well. In fact, it was Montreals best run defense all year, and against a team that runs the ball fairly well(Despite not doing it to the extent they have in the past).
Edmonton played in an extremely interesting game on Saturday. After falling behind by a ridiculous 22-0 margin, they stormed back to win 38-33 and even up their record for the year. They had been an unimpressive squad all 3 weeks prior, but their 2nd half in Saskatchewan showed some strength. Ray has actually been remarkably consistent all year, as their passing attack has netted between 7.4 and 7.6 yards/play every single week. The difference has come in the run game, where Arkee Whitlock has done a better job of taking care of the ball and not goofing up, while Cavin McCarty has been used more each week to stabilize the run game and the short passing attack.(As well as providing an excellent blocker). Two straight solid performances by the line and the 2 backs mean this team is much better off going ahead. Ray and the line also did a better job in keeping the sack total to 1, something they havent been able to do much. Ray is a fantastic CFL QB, as he has great vision and a great arm, but he does sometime let plays take too long to develop, and also has trouble escaping a rush if someone on the line misses a block early.
Edmonton is in tough this week, even at home. Montreal has jst shown no signs of weakness, and Calvillo versus the Eskimo secondary is going to be a COMPLETE mismatch, as it was when Edmonton visited the Als earlier in the year. The week 2 match between these two teams was probably the biggest stomping in the CFL this season, but you wonder if seeing the Montreal attack alreay might actually be pretty good help for this defense. In the end though, the talent you put on the field determines the outcome in most cases, and the Montreal offense has more talent. A big determinant of the spread outcome will be how Ray and the receivers play; Edmonton has turned the ball over far too much so far, and its buried them on numerous occasions. Ray needs to take care of the ball and still be able to strike deep. That's actually one thing Edmonton has going for them in this, the fact that Montreal has been bitten by the deep ball and Ray throws it so well.
Whitlock and the Eskimos will try their best to avenge their performance in week 2, but going against the Als when theyre playing like they are is a dangerous proposition.
1.5* Montreal -6.5 -105
1* Over 54.5 +100
BC at Hamilton
Another rematch from week 2 pits the Lions vs the Cats. A few weeks ago Hamilton marched into Vancouver and shocked the Lions, dropping them to 0-2 in the process. It was the beginning of things to come, as although both teams have gone 1-1 since, Hamilton has looked better doing so.
British Columbia last week was pretty bad, losing 48-10 to the Stamps. But the margin probably shouldn't have been that bad. Although the Lions offense was abysmal, their defense didn't play bad enough that they shouldve given up 48 points. Put the blame for that in the hands of the offense which gave up 4 turnovers, as well as Sandro DeAngelis for having a great game kicking the ball. The Lions defense held Burris in check very well, allowing just 163 yards on 29 attempts to the MOP QB. The Stamps rushing game did perform very well on the back of Reynolds among others, but run defense is always a bit less of a concern than pass defense, so let's not kill BC too much for that. (Although it is made more troubling by the fact that Calgarys run game had been very ineffective before last week.)
As said, on offense they were abysmal, as Pierce had very little going, and Jackson was even worse replacing him. Pierce is undoubtedly the better QB and lets hope that in the future Buono sticks with him. The running numbers were very, very good on the whole in the game, but dont be fooled... they had few attempts and they were certainly aided by a useless 37 yard run on the last play of the game.
For Hamilton, although they lost last week and never really had a chance to win past the 2nd quarter, they still impressed me. Rodriguez is a beast and the passing game, be it with either Porter or Glenn, has looked pretty damn good the last 3 games. They're still completing a good percentage(66% on the year) and are connecting on a good number of mid-range passes that weren't a part of their arsenal last year. They also managed to take care of the football and put up a solid showing on special teams. Any time you face Montreal in Montreal its going to be very hard to win, and you cant fault them for their effort.
Overall, BC has been a pretty lousy team. I still think they're potentially overrated, however any game where you lose by 38 points should do plenty to mitigate or even reverse that trend. Hamilton on the otherhand may be a little underrated right now, as people might look at a 21-8 loss and think it's a bad thing. Their weak schedule is troubling, but atleast theyve knocked out the teams they should have. This is a tough game to gauge, but I like this Hamilton team better and being at home with a crowd that has reason for their first optimism in years is a big boost.
2* Hamilton +2.5 -105
1* Over 50.5 -105
I'm once again feeling really good about the week ahead. As I've mentioned, this portion of the season is my favourite and with 4 full games in, there's practically nothing to be gained by analyzing preseason predictions or last years results. Every team has had plenty of opportunity to show exactly what they're capable of. The only problem from here on out is deciphering which teams have the ability to improve or decline.
Season to Date: 8-4-1, +3.9925 units.
Montreal at Edmonton
There's simply not much to say aout this Montreal squad other than the obvious that they're really, really good. Expect the undefeated season talk to start heating up a little bit more in the TSN panel talks and in casual conversations. Although the odds are truly against them performing the feat, they're still going to be the overwhelming favourite in every game they play. Last weeks performance against the TiCats showed their consistency yet again. After a sluggish start which made you wonder about how they'd "get up" for what looked like such an easy win, they started to clamp down and play the way we've come to expect. Calvillo started lighting it up after the first quarter and the defense looked solid. One concern is that as the lead stretched out, the defense began to lay back, allowing "backup" Kevin Glenn to complete easy pass after easy pass and manage 191 yards in his second half. On the bright side, they did contain the Hamilton run game very well. In fact, it was Montreals best run defense all year, and against a team that runs the ball fairly well(Despite not doing it to the extent they have in the past).
Edmonton played in an extremely interesting game on Saturday. After falling behind by a ridiculous 22-0 margin, they stormed back to win 38-33 and even up their record for the year. They had been an unimpressive squad all 3 weeks prior, but their 2nd half in Saskatchewan showed some strength. Ray has actually been remarkably consistent all year, as their passing attack has netted between 7.4 and 7.6 yards/play every single week. The difference has come in the run game, where Arkee Whitlock has done a better job of taking care of the ball and not goofing up, while Cavin McCarty has been used more each week to stabilize the run game and the short passing attack.(As well as providing an excellent blocker). Two straight solid performances by the line and the 2 backs mean this team is much better off going ahead. Ray and the line also did a better job in keeping the sack total to 1, something they havent been able to do much. Ray is a fantastic CFL QB, as he has great vision and a great arm, but he does sometime let plays take too long to develop, and also has trouble escaping a rush if someone on the line misses a block early.
Edmonton is in tough this week, even at home. Montreal has jst shown no signs of weakness, and Calvillo versus the Eskimo secondary is going to be a COMPLETE mismatch, as it was when Edmonton visited the Als earlier in the year. The week 2 match between these two teams was probably the biggest stomping in the CFL this season, but you wonder if seeing the Montreal attack alreay might actually be pretty good help for this defense. In the end though, the talent you put on the field determines the outcome in most cases, and the Montreal offense has more talent. A big determinant of the spread outcome will be how Ray and the receivers play; Edmonton has turned the ball over far too much so far, and its buried them on numerous occasions. Ray needs to take care of the ball and still be able to strike deep. That's actually one thing Edmonton has going for them in this, the fact that Montreal has been bitten by the deep ball and Ray throws it so well.
Whitlock and the Eskimos will try their best to avenge their performance in week 2, but going against the Als when theyre playing like they are is a dangerous proposition.
1.5* Montreal -6.5 -105
1* Over 54.5 +100
BC at Hamilton
Another rematch from week 2 pits the Lions vs the Cats. A few weeks ago Hamilton marched into Vancouver and shocked the Lions, dropping them to 0-2 in the process. It was the beginning of things to come, as although both teams have gone 1-1 since, Hamilton has looked better doing so.
British Columbia last week was pretty bad, losing 48-10 to the Stamps. But the margin probably shouldn't have been that bad. Although the Lions offense was abysmal, their defense didn't play bad enough that they shouldve given up 48 points. Put the blame for that in the hands of the offense which gave up 4 turnovers, as well as Sandro DeAngelis for having a great game kicking the ball. The Lions defense held Burris in check very well, allowing just 163 yards on 29 attempts to the MOP QB. The Stamps rushing game did perform very well on the back of Reynolds among others, but run defense is always a bit less of a concern than pass defense, so let's not kill BC too much for that. (Although it is made more troubling by the fact that Calgarys run game had been very ineffective before last week.)
As said, on offense they were abysmal, as Pierce had very little going, and Jackson was even worse replacing him. Pierce is undoubtedly the better QB and lets hope that in the future Buono sticks with him. The running numbers were very, very good on the whole in the game, but dont be fooled... they had few attempts and they were certainly aided by a useless 37 yard run on the last play of the game.
For Hamilton, although they lost last week and never really had a chance to win past the 2nd quarter, they still impressed me. Rodriguez is a beast and the passing game, be it with either Porter or Glenn, has looked pretty damn good the last 3 games. They're still completing a good percentage(66% on the year) and are connecting on a good number of mid-range passes that weren't a part of their arsenal last year. They also managed to take care of the football and put up a solid showing on special teams. Any time you face Montreal in Montreal its going to be very hard to win, and you cant fault them for their effort.
Overall, BC has been a pretty lousy team. I still think they're potentially overrated, however any game where you lose by 38 points should do plenty to mitigate or even reverse that trend. Hamilton on the otherhand may be a little underrated right now, as people might look at a 21-8 loss and think it's a bad thing. Their weak schedule is troubling, but atleast theyve knocked out the teams they should have. This is a tough game to gauge, but I like this Hamilton team better and being at home with a crowd that has reason for their first optimism in years is a big boost.
2* Hamilton +2.5 -105
1* Over 50.5 -105
