It's not often a result from 14 years ago can be the main reason for a pick. However, that's the case in this particular situation. In 2005, the Broncos came to Miami for a Week 1 clash with the Dolphins. At the time Mike Shanahan was entering his 11th season with Denver, had an excellent record (8-2 both SU & ATS) in Week 1 and the Broncos were a playoff team in 2004. The Dolphins, on the other hand, were coming off a miserable 4-12 season, had a new head coach and expectations were low. The highlight of their previous season came in Week 15 when they upset the Patriots 29-28 as a 9.5 point home underdog. Oddsmakers installed the Broncos as a 5 point favorite.
Fast forward to 2019 and we have Baltimore coming to Miami for the season-opener. John Harbaugh is entering his 12th year as Ravens head coach, has an excellent record in Week 1 (8-3 both SU & ATS) and the Ravens were a playoff team in 2018. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are coming off another losing season, have a new head coach (Brian Flores) and the Over/Under for regular season wins is 5 (and you have to lay -140 if you like the Under). The highlight of their previous season came in Week 14 when they upset the Patriots 34-33 as a 9.5 point underdog. Oddsmakers have installed the Ravens as 4.5 point favorite.
Back in 2005, the effects of heat & humidity combined with lack of early-season conditioning were not part of my handicapping arsenal. I "took the cheese", unloaded on the Broncos and watched in disbelief as the Dolphins dominated from start to finish on their way to a 34-10 victory.
It is my belief that teams are not in "football shape" for Week 1. The only way to achieve the proper level of fitness is to play 4 quarters. That doesn't happen in preseason. Starters typically play a couple of series in Week 1, maybe a quarter and a half in Week 2, a full half plus a series or two in Week 3 and then they don't play at all in Week 4.
This is true for every team in the League and it is just accepted that they will work themselves into shape. However, the last place you want to go in the first week of September is Miami. The heat index is typically through the roof. That gives the home team Dolphins two distinct advantages (1) they are more used to the heat because they have to deal with it on an everyday basis, and (2) they get to wear the all-white uniforms. The Ravens will be coming in with their dark purple jerseys making the situation even more problematic.
When handicapping, it's always good to have multiple angles to support your selection. One of my favorites is "double revenge" and the Dolphins have that in spades. In 2016, they went to Baltimore as a 3 point dog and got smoked 38-6. In 2017 they went back to Baltimore, this time in a nationally televised Thursday night game, and got humiliated 40-0. This will be their first meeting since then. Who do you think has the motivational edge?
Look, I fully understand the Ravens are the better team and that they have covered 8 consecutive times against the Dolphins. In general, its not a good idea to buck a trend like that, but this is an exception. I expect the Ravens to come out flat as a pancake against this Dolphin team that they have no respect for. Combine that with the heat/conditioning factor, purple jerseys and the difficulty of preparing for a team with a brand new coaching staff and that's why the Dolphins are my Best Bet for Week 1 of the NFL season. For those who dare, the Dolphins are +180 on the Moneyline. Jump on it.
Fast forward to 2019 and we have Baltimore coming to Miami for the season-opener. John Harbaugh is entering his 12th year as Ravens head coach, has an excellent record in Week 1 (8-3 both SU & ATS) and the Ravens were a playoff team in 2018. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are coming off another losing season, have a new head coach (Brian Flores) and the Over/Under for regular season wins is 5 (and you have to lay -140 if you like the Under). The highlight of their previous season came in Week 14 when they upset the Patriots 34-33 as a 9.5 point underdog. Oddsmakers have installed the Ravens as 4.5 point favorite.
Back in 2005, the effects of heat & humidity combined with lack of early-season conditioning were not part of my handicapping arsenal. I "took the cheese", unloaded on the Broncos and watched in disbelief as the Dolphins dominated from start to finish on their way to a 34-10 victory.
It is my belief that teams are not in "football shape" for Week 1. The only way to achieve the proper level of fitness is to play 4 quarters. That doesn't happen in preseason. Starters typically play a couple of series in Week 1, maybe a quarter and a half in Week 2, a full half plus a series or two in Week 3 and then they don't play at all in Week 4.
This is true for every team in the League and it is just accepted that they will work themselves into shape. However, the last place you want to go in the first week of September is Miami. The heat index is typically through the roof. That gives the home team Dolphins two distinct advantages (1) they are more used to the heat because they have to deal with it on an everyday basis, and (2) they get to wear the all-white uniforms. The Ravens will be coming in with their dark purple jerseys making the situation even more problematic.
When handicapping, it's always good to have multiple angles to support your selection. One of my favorites is "double revenge" and the Dolphins have that in spades. In 2016, they went to Baltimore as a 3 point dog and got smoked 38-6. In 2017 they went back to Baltimore, this time in a nationally televised Thursday night game, and got humiliated 40-0. This will be their first meeting since then. Who do you think has the motivational edge?
Look, I fully understand the Ravens are the better team and that they have covered 8 consecutive times against the Dolphins. In general, its not a good idea to buck a trend like that, but this is an exception. I expect the Ravens to come out flat as a pancake against this Dolphin team that they have no respect for. Combine that with the heat/conditioning factor, purple jerseys and the difficulty of preparing for a team with a brand new coaching staff and that's why the Dolphins are my Best Bet for Week 1 of the NFL season. For those who dare, the Dolphins are +180 on the Moneyline. Jump on it.
