Well last week started out with a big scare for me as I went 0-2 on the Thursday and Friday night games, but a 2-0 Saturday almost got me to even for the week, just losing the juice of .12 units. None of the games were overly competitive, but a lot of the scores were inflated by some late mistakes that made the games look more lopsided than they were.
Units per plays will generally go up again for me this week, because as I've said before, weeks 4-7 tend to be my strongest; often times I find the lines too reflective of prior season numbers and preseason expectation instead of actual year to date performance. I haven't varied up unit sizes between games in certain weeks yet, but that is something Ill be doing based on confidence levels from now on as I see fit.
Season to Date: 5-3, +1.305
Hamilton at Montreal
Another great week for Hamilton puts them at 2-1 and winners of two in a row for the first time in an eternity. But heading to Montreal for week 4 means the streak will almost certainly be snapped before it really gets going, as the Als are the dominant team in the CFL. Although it's hard to judge how easy or hard schedules have been at this point in the year because we don't truly have a good enough gauge on who the strong teams are, the TiCats schedule thus far seems mediocre at best, having faced BC, Toronto, and the lowly Bombers. But nonetheless, they've handled it well, with Quinton Porter and Glenn completing a high % of passes and their running game functioning well enough overall.
Their just isn't a lot of consistency though in the TiCats performances to date; the numbers from each game all seem to be saying different things about them, so theyre a tough team to gauge. Montreal on the other hand has been terrific in all 3 of their games, and has left little to doubt. Over 400 yards of offense and 24 completed passes in all 3 games to go along with a defense that absolutely stomped the Bombers last week makes for great looking overall numbers. 14 points is a lot, especially considering I think Hamilton is a decent team, but that's how good the Als are. Throw in the fact that they're at home, and that they've faced a strong schedule, and that's enough for me to wind up on their side.
1.25 * Montreal -14 -105
The total looks about right, but perhaps a tad high. It's been a bit odd this year though, because the per/play and time/play numbers have been quite low, yet a lot of overs have come in and the totals are starting to be set much higher than the first 2 weeks. This is probably because of the number of defensive and ST touchdowns, which I'm assuming won't keep up. Overall, I'm leaning towards more unders than overs.
Toronto at Winnipeg
After the Blue Bombers decent start to the year, the wheels fell off last week against Hamilton. Coach Kelly is adament that Lefors is still his quarterback, but with the passing game easily worst in the CFL it's hard to see why. If Lefors doesn't start to step up, he needs to be replaced. Winnipeg's defense and running game have actually been alright, but because of their incompetent passing theyve yet to win a contest on a yard/play basis. Throw in probably the worst special teams in the CFL, and a +8 turnover margin that's just not sustainable, and this team looks like a good fade over the next couple of weeks.
Toronto got stomped last week by the winless Stamps, losing 44-9. Once again, after showing some competitiveness early, they let turnovers and mistakes bury them as the Stamps had multiple turnover touchdowns in the 2nd half to make it a laugher. I generally look at these types of things as flukes, but if Toronto continues to do it, ignoring it will get you buried. Toronto's pass defense has gotten worse each week as the quality of their opponent's pass game has gone up, culminating in last week's poor effort vs Burris. Likewise, their run defense has gotten better as the quality of their opponent's run game has gone down. Facing a team like Winnipeg that flips that trend should help.
What this game will come down to is Joseph. Toronto has the talent to embarass this weak Bombers team, but Kelly is forceful that his team will play hard and take advantage of mistakes. If Toronto makes them, they'll be ripe for the picking. But if Joseph stays in control and takes care of the ball, they should cover easily.
2 * Toronto +4 -105
Units per plays will generally go up again for me this week, because as I've said before, weeks 4-7 tend to be my strongest; often times I find the lines too reflective of prior season numbers and preseason expectation instead of actual year to date performance. I haven't varied up unit sizes between games in certain weeks yet, but that is something Ill be doing based on confidence levels from now on as I see fit.
Season to Date: 5-3, +1.305
Hamilton at Montreal
Another great week for Hamilton puts them at 2-1 and winners of two in a row for the first time in an eternity. But heading to Montreal for week 4 means the streak will almost certainly be snapped before it really gets going, as the Als are the dominant team in the CFL. Although it's hard to judge how easy or hard schedules have been at this point in the year because we don't truly have a good enough gauge on who the strong teams are, the TiCats schedule thus far seems mediocre at best, having faced BC, Toronto, and the lowly Bombers. But nonetheless, they've handled it well, with Quinton Porter and Glenn completing a high % of passes and their running game functioning well enough overall.
Their just isn't a lot of consistency though in the TiCats performances to date; the numbers from each game all seem to be saying different things about them, so theyre a tough team to gauge. Montreal on the other hand has been terrific in all 3 of their games, and has left little to doubt. Over 400 yards of offense and 24 completed passes in all 3 games to go along with a defense that absolutely stomped the Bombers last week makes for great looking overall numbers. 14 points is a lot, especially considering I think Hamilton is a decent team, but that's how good the Als are. Throw in the fact that they're at home, and that they've faced a strong schedule, and that's enough for me to wind up on their side.
1.25 * Montreal -14 -105
The total looks about right, but perhaps a tad high. It's been a bit odd this year though, because the per/play and time/play numbers have been quite low, yet a lot of overs have come in and the totals are starting to be set much higher than the first 2 weeks. This is probably because of the number of defensive and ST touchdowns, which I'm assuming won't keep up. Overall, I'm leaning towards more unders than overs.
Toronto at Winnipeg
After the Blue Bombers decent start to the year, the wheels fell off last week against Hamilton. Coach Kelly is adament that Lefors is still his quarterback, but with the passing game easily worst in the CFL it's hard to see why. If Lefors doesn't start to step up, he needs to be replaced. Winnipeg's defense and running game have actually been alright, but because of their incompetent passing theyve yet to win a contest on a yard/play basis. Throw in probably the worst special teams in the CFL, and a +8 turnover margin that's just not sustainable, and this team looks like a good fade over the next couple of weeks.
Toronto got stomped last week by the winless Stamps, losing 44-9. Once again, after showing some competitiveness early, they let turnovers and mistakes bury them as the Stamps had multiple turnover touchdowns in the 2nd half to make it a laugher. I generally look at these types of things as flukes, but if Toronto continues to do it, ignoring it will get you buried. Toronto's pass defense has gotten worse each week as the quality of their opponent's pass game has gone up, culminating in last week's poor effort vs Burris. Likewise, their run defense has gotten better as the quality of their opponent's run game has gone down. Facing a team like Winnipeg that flips that trend should help.
What this game will come down to is Joseph. Toronto has the talent to embarass this weak Bombers team, but Kelly is forceful that his team will play hard and take advantage of mistakes. If Toronto makes them, they'll be ripe for the picking. But if Joseph stays in control and takes care of the ball, they should cover easily.
2 * Toronto +4 -105
