Part II, Betting NFL Preseason: Exercising caution with totals wagers
7/16/2009 2:36 PM ET
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
In Part I of this series earlier this week, we looked at coaches and backups. In this second part of the two-part series, we'll look at how betting totals can be tricky.
Totals
Betting on totals in the preseason can also have its advantages, but it is an area to exercise some caution. Remember that most of the players on the field during the course of the game are just getting used to having some of their other teammates. This can easily lead to broken plays on offense causing lower scoring, as well as blown coverage on defense resulting in an extra touchdown here or there.
Special teams can also play a huge role in some preseason games as turnovers can happen easily with no real chemistry among who is on the field for those types of plays. For totals, it is also important to look beyond the expected quarterback rotations that both teams will bring and more at how long the lower-profile positions such as the offensive and defensive lines will have their more seasoned players in. Field position as it relates to scoring also has a bigger role played by the punt and kick coverage teams during a preseason game compared to a regular season came as kicks are often run back for more yards or fumbled.
Preseason games generally have lower totals than what you will find in the regular season. This is due to offensive play calling generally being less risky and more to grind out yards on the field instead of the desperate long bombs you can see otherwise. There can also be more penalties against the offense in the preseason like delay of games and false starts since the timing of a snap in itself can be difficult for a team to get use to again. Be sure to also check the weather report for any preseason games as thunderstorms or hot weather can also affect how a game’s total should be set.
Other Factors
Some more intangibles to think about in preseason games are items like home field advantage, how much time off has occurred between games, and how the pointspread can have different meaning than a regular season game. For preseason games, I have felt over the years that home field advantage means a lot less than it does in a meaningful regular season game. Road teams can be more focused on the game as it is a chance for them to have something to look forward to as an escape onto a bigger stage away from the grueling practices they have had at home. Stadiums are often much less full for preaseason games and fans present are generally not as much into the game as normal. Although you would think a home team would be more motivated in front of their own fans, in the end it rarely seems to take priority over evaluating talent and getting ready for the real season.
The scheduling of preseason games is also important to take a close look at. Since the NFL wants to televise as many preseason games as possible, one team may have two games with a short rest between them and facing an opponent who may have had twice the rest. Although preseason games take a physical toll at times, it is important to look at which games a team may be more mentally up for.
An example is a team playing a big televised game on a Monday or Thursday night – they may be a lot more up for that game and less motivated in the following weekend’s game which might be lucky to be seen by anyone at all depending on what market they are in. Third and fourth string players in for “mop up” duty in the fourth quarter are more motivated in the big television games as they are hoping to impress other teams out there with their play in case they are unable to make their present team’s roster. There is nothing like getting a big touchdown, sack, or interception on television when it may be the only chance for some players.
The pointspread in a preseason game also has its own differences than the regular season for a variety of reasons. Perhaps the most important point to note is that two point conversions are far more common in preseason games than in the regular season. This is generally so both teams can avoid overtime, as well as actually get a “real money” feel for going through a 2-point conversion so they are ready in the regular season for it when a playoff spot might be on the line.
The significance of this is that the pointspread of “2” can mean a lot as a team down a point after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter will likely go for the two point conversion and this will put either team up or down by only one point. So be sure to remember all of this before you think of laying 2 points with a favorite thinking it looks easy or taking a money line with a 2 point underdog instead of the points.
What you can do ahead of time
Most bettors that want to wager on preseason football think there is nothing they can do for preparation until the day of the game as the quarterback rotations for teams are not known until then. But like the regular season, it is important to do your homework on games ahead of time. Make sure you have a schedule handy of the whole preseason on you and make notes as information comes to mind about an upcoming game.
Point spreads can also move very quickly in the preseason as maximum bets allowed are much less than the regular season – so you may have to act quick to get the best numbers! There are also plenty of football publications out there now which help recap the off-season moves that every team in the NFL has undergone and this can give you an indication of the depth each team has at every position - which is key in a lot of preseason games.
It is also important to outline a money management strategy for the preseason and have a clear understanding of what your betting unit will be so that a few losses knock you out before the regular season even starts. Although the kind of advice I have provided in this article will be helpful and profitable to you, there can be much more variance and uncertainty with the flow of preseason games. We all know that even one unexpected turnover at the end of any football game can cause a swing in which side or total cashes – this can be more likely to happen in preseason football than any other time. So be sure to plan your bankroll to allow for some losses along the way.
Good luck with your other wagers until football starts and be ready to unload on NFL preseason action in August!
7/16/2009 2:36 PM ET
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
In Part I of this series earlier this week, we looked at coaches and backups. In this second part of the two-part series, we'll look at how betting totals can be tricky.
Totals
Betting on totals in the preseason can also have its advantages, but it is an area to exercise some caution. Remember that most of the players on the field during the course of the game are just getting used to having some of their other teammates. This can easily lead to broken plays on offense causing lower scoring, as well as blown coverage on defense resulting in an extra touchdown here or there.
Special teams can also play a huge role in some preseason games as turnovers can happen easily with no real chemistry among who is on the field for those types of plays. For totals, it is also important to look beyond the expected quarterback rotations that both teams will bring and more at how long the lower-profile positions such as the offensive and defensive lines will have their more seasoned players in. Field position as it relates to scoring also has a bigger role played by the punt and kick coverage teams during a preseason game compared to a regular season came as kicks are often run back for more yards or fumbled.Preseason games generally have lower totals than what you will find in the regular season. This is due to offensive play calling generally being less risky and more to grind out yards on the field instead of the desperate long bombs you can see otherwise. There can also be more penalties against the offense in the preseason like delay of games and false starts since the timing of a snap in itself can be difficult for a team to get use to again. Be sure to also check the weather report for any preseason games as thunderstorms or hot weather can also affect how a game’s total should be set.
Other Factors
Some more intangibles to think about in preseason games are items like home field advantage, how much time off has occurred between games, and how the pointspread can have different meaning than a regular season game. For preseason games, I have felt over the years that home field advantage means a lot less than it does in a meaningful regular season game. Road teams can be more focused on the game as it is a chance for them to have something to look forward to as an escape onto a bigger stage away from the grueling practices they have had at home. Stadiums are often much less full for preaseason games and fans present are generally not as much into the game as normal. Although you would think a home team would be more motivated in front of their own fans, in the end it rarely seems to take priority over evaluating talent and getting ready for the real season.
The scheduling of preseason games is also important to take a close look at. Since the NFL wants to televise as many preseason games as possible, one team may have two games with a short rest between them and facing an opponent who may have had twice the rest. Although preseason games take a physical toll at times, it is important to look at which games a team may be more mentally up for.
An example is a team playing a big televised game on a Monday or Thursday night – they may be a lot more up for that game and less motivated in the following weekend’s game which might be lucky to be seen by anyone at all depending on what market they are in. Third and fourth string players in for “mop up” duty in the fourth quarter are more motivated in the big television games as they are hoping to impress other teams out there with their play in case they are unable to make their present team’s roster. There is nothing like getting a big touchdown, sack, or interception on television when it may be the only chance for some players.
The pointspread in a preseason game also has its own differences than the regular season for a variety of reasons. Perhaps the most important point to note is that two point conversions are far more common in preseason games than in the regular season. This is generally so both teams can avoid overtime, as well as actually get a “real money” feel for going through a 2-point conversion so they are ready in the regular season for it when a playoff spot might be on the line.
The significance of this is that the pointspread of “2” can mean a lot as a team down a point after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter will likely go for the two point conversion and this will put either team up or down by only one point. So be sure to remember all of this before you think of laying 2 points with a favorite thinking it looks easy or taking a money line with a 2 point underdog instead of the points.
What you can do ahead of time
Most bettors that want to wager on preseason football think there is nothing they can do for preparation until the day of the game as the quarterback rotations for teams are not known until then. But like the regular season, it is important to do your homework on games ahead of time. Make sure you have a schedule handy of the whole preseason on you and make notes as information comes to mind about an upcoming game.
Point spreads can also move very quickly in the preseason as maximum bets allowed are much less than the regular season – so you may have to act quick to get the best numbers! There are also plenty of football publications out there now which help recap the off-season moves that every team in the NFL has undergone and this can give you an indication of the depth each team has at every position - which is key in a lot of preseason games.
It is also important to outline a money management strategy for the preseason and have a clear understanding of what your betting unit will be so that a few losses knock you out before the regular season even starts. Although the kind of advice I have provided in this article will be helpful and profitable to you, there can be much more variance and uncertainty with the flow of preseason games. We all know that even one unexpected turnover at the end of any football game can cause a swing in which side or total cashes – this can be more likely to happen in preseason football than any other time. So be sure to plan your bankroll to allow for some losses along the way.
Good luck with your other wagers until football starts and be ready to unload on NFL preseason action in August!