Is 3 really the magic number?
Jeff Fogle
VSiN.com January 29, 2019 09:13 PM
You’ve heard a lot about the “key number” of 3 through early Super Bowl market coverage. The general public (and some sharps) like New England at -2.5 or better vs. the Los Angeles Rams this Sunday (CBS, 6:30 p.m. ET). Stores that have tested 3 see Rams money race to the window. That’s the majority of sharps. But, in Las Vegas, a lot of public money races too because LA is nearby.
Does the 3 really matter that much? Or is it just more hype in a fortnight of non-stop exclamation points?
Betting is a percentage game. The fact that 3 is such a common final victory margin in football really can swing the percentages.
Here’s a theoretical scenario. Let’s say a model spits out the following assessments for Rams-Patriots: New England wins by 4 points or more 42% of the time; New England wins by EXACTLY 3 points 11% of the time and the Rams either lose by 1 or 2 points or WIN outright 47% of the time.
At a point spread of Patriots -2.5, the power of 3 gives New England a 53% to 47% edge. That makes money over the long haul at 11/10 vigorish (the extra 10% on those 47% lost bets still doesn’t erase all the profit from winners.
At a point spread of Patriots -3, value now switches to the Rams. We have 11% pushes where all the money is refunded. Los Angeles wins the non-pushes 47% to 42%, enough to clear the vig.
So, in our theoretical example, the Patriots are a winning bet at -2.5, while the Rams are a winning bet at 3.
What are the “real” percentages for this game? That’s the rub. The real world is extremely complex. It’s hard to know for sure how common the 3 would be in this particular matchup, or how ready the young Rams are for the challenge ahead.
It’s one thing to say “Pats by 3” is likely because a favorite of -2.5 should win by exactly 3 fairly often. But how often should the Patriots win by 3 if the “right” line is actually pick-em?
Remember that many sportsbooks opened there, or even at Rams -1. Early betting may have been over-influenced by the Patriots overachieving expectations in their first two playoff games while the Rams needed a huge officiating break to reach Atlanta.
Sports books are acting like they believe the “right” line is pick’em or Patriots -1. Some oddsmakers have told media they don’t mind having a position on the Rams at 2.5, particularly with the 11/10 in their favor. If oddsmakers are right that the public has overreacted, sports books are getting free points and plus odds.
Sharps are acting like Rams 3 is the best bet of the century! That suggests pro bettors also believe something closer to pick'em is the right number.
VSiN.com January 29, 2019 09:13 PM
You’ve heard a lot about the “key number” of 3 through early Super Bowl market coverage. The general public (and some sharps) like New England at -2.5 or better vs. the Los Angeles Rams this Sunday (CBS, 6:30 p.m. ET). Stores that have tested 3 see Rams money race to the window. That’s the majority of sharps. But, in Las Vegas, a lot of public money races too because LA is nearby.
Does the 3 really matter that much? Or is it just more hype in a fortnight of non-stop exclamation points?
Betting is a percentage game. The fact that 3 is such a common final victory margin in football really can swing the percentages.
Here’s a theoretical scenario. Let’s say a model spits out the following assessments for Rams-Patriots: New England wins by 4 points or more 42% of the time; New England wins by EXACTLY 3 points 11% of the time and the Rams either lose by 1 or 2 points or WIN outright 47% of the time.
At a point spread of Patriots -2.5, the power of 3 gives New England a 53% to 47% edge. That makes money over the long haul at 11/10 vigorish (the extra 10% on those 47% lost bets still doesn’t erase all the profit from winners.
At a point spread of Patriots -3, value now switches to the Rams. We have 11% pushes where all the money is refunded. Los Angeles wins the non-pushes 47% to 42%, enough to clear the vig.
So, in our theoretical example, the Patriots are a winning bet at -2.5, while the Rams are a winning bet at 3.
What are the “real” percentages for this game? That’s the rub. The real world is extremely complex. It’s hard to know for sure how common the 3 would be in this particular matchup, or how ready the young Rams are for the challenge ahead.
It’s one thing to say “Pats by 3” is likely because a favorite of -2.5 should win by exactly 3 fairly often. But how often should the Patriots win by 3 if the “right” line is actually pick-em?
Remember that many sportsbooks opened there, or even at Rams -1. Early betting may have been over-influenced by the Patriots overachieving expectations in their first two playoff games while the Rams needed a huge officiating break to reach Atlanta.
Sports books are acting like they believe the “right” line is pick’em or Patriots -1. Some oddsmakers have told media they don’t mind having a position on the Rams at 2.5, particularly with the 11/10 in their favor. If oddsmakers are right that the public has overreacted, sports books are getting free points and plus odds.
Sharps are acting like Rams 3 is the best bet of the century! That suggests pro bettors also believe something closer to pick'em is the right number.
