Is # crunching mandatory to succeed?

[mtofell]

I'm in my 5th year of betting and can say I have done better every year. I started out just blindly throwing $$ on games but have become much better at picking the right positions. One thing I don't do (at least not yet) is look in depth at stats and really handicap the games by picking apart numbers. I go more with a gut feel and study a lot with my eyes by watching a lot of games. I also listen and read a ton of material from sports book managers and pundits all over the betting world.

So, am I a fool to think I can actually make money at this someday without really being a "numbers geek?" With sports betting generally gaining in popularity due to various legal hurdles being removed I feel like there is a lot of money to be made in the years ahead.

Just to be clear I definitely look at numbers like total yards, defense, running/passing yards, etc. I just don't have spreadsheets all over my desk and some magical system to spit out predicted results down a hundredth of a point.

[ddittie]

Relying on your memory alone is probably putting yourself at a great disadvantage.

[thebestthereis]

I bet mainly on people/players, coaches, organizations and situations. Very little number crunching, it’s already in the line. Example #1, I have bet on the Patriots every single game for years now no matter what. Look at the Browns in the reverse. People both smart and dumb are playing these games it’s not cards or roulette. Some have it and some do not when the ball is dropped, combine talent means nothing. Good luck!

[Renegades]

I bet mainly on people/players, coaches, organizations and situations. Very little number crunching, it’s already in the line. Example #1, I have bet on the Patriots every single game for years now no matter what. Look at the Browns in the reverse. People both smart and dumb are playing these games it’s not cards or roulette. Some have it and some do not when the ball is dropped, combine talent means nothing. Good luck!

You are exactly right! If anyone thinks they are going to find something in the numbers that the books havent...you are crazy. The books use algorithms with a shit ton of data to compile a line, along with some manipulation based on public perception. Number crunching is useless. Prob the best bettors in the world bet on instincts as you alluded to

[Optional]

I'm in my 5th year of betting and can say I have done better every year. I started out just blindly throwing $$ on games but have become much better at picking the right positions. One thing I don't do (at least not yet) is look in depth at stats and really handicap the games by picking apart numbers. I go more with a gut feel and study a lot with my eyes by watching a lot of games. I also listen and read a ton of material from sports book managers and pundits all over the betting world.

So, am I a fool to think I can actually make money at this someday without really being a "numbers geek?" With sports betting generally gaining in popularity due to various legal hurdles being removed I feel like there is a lot of money to be made in the years ahead.

Just to be clear I definitely look at numbers like total yards, defense, running/passing yards, etc. I just don't have spreadsheets all over my desk and some magical system to spit out predicted results down a hundredth of a point.

More than a few travellers who have passed through SBR will tell you how they won for a few years, before they got too complicated and time consuming with their capping.

[jtoler]

You are exactly right! If anyone thinks they are going to find something in the numbers that the books havent...you are crazy. The books use algorithms with a shit ton of data to compile a line, along with some manipulation based on public perception. Number crunching is useless. Prob the best bettors in the world bet on instincts as you alluded to

I agree for the most part but I wouldnt say number crunching is useless it depends on what numbers youre taking into consideration. just like everyone doesnt have the same power ratings. my way of crunching numbers had me thinking bama/lsu would be a blowout and not just a 2 td win, but agree on situations they mean so much how to read those situations isnt always easy. also reading and hearing things during the week can help. like how well a team is doing overall in practice during the week carries over into the game much of the time.

[Renegades]

I agree for the most part but I wouldnt say number crunching is useless it depends on what numbers youre taking into consideration. just like everyone doesnt have the same power ratings. my way of crunching numbers had me thinking bama/lsu would be a blowout and not just a 2 td win, but agree on situations they mean so much how to read those situations isnt always easy. also reading and hearing things during the week can help. like how well a team is doing overall in practice during the week carries over into the game much of the time.

Fair enough. Useless might be a little harsh. Numbers based is definitely more useful in college. Match ups play a big part in college as well. Ie when ga tech plays a team that never plays the option. In the nfl who the hell knows.

I feel like situational capping is so much more effective.

[mtofell]

Ie when ga tech plays a team that never plays the option.

This is great point. Phil Steele is a guy I listen to weekly and he does a lot of this situational capping. He's been really good this year. Just listening to him on the Behind the Bets podcast has taught me a ton.

[Renegades]

Yeah Phil knows his stuff. I’ve been following him for yrs since back in the day when he was the front man for northcoast sports.

Its true though. There are certain teams that are incredibly difficult to prepare for. 1 week is not enough time. Look at how the military academies play each other. The games between these teams have gone under the total like 75% of the time. Why? Because all of the schools run the same system. The defenses see it every single day since spring ball. The offenses have a really hard time scoring. Navy used to differentiate themselves back in the day because they had guys that could throw. Remember Keenan Reynolds? He could carve you up throwing off of the run action plays

Sorry got a little off topic

[jtoler]

Fair enough. Useless might be a little harsh. Numbers based is definitely more useful in college. Match ups play a big part in college as well. Ie when ga tech plays a team that never plays the option. In the nfl who the hell knows.

I feel like situational capping is so much more effective.

I agree with situations being more important, what are some of the type situations you are referring to?

[thebestthereis]

Another example of many was when I met Ryan Mallett, a year after the Patriots drafted him. Tall, arm like Rodgers and all the physical skills on paper. I was a driver and took him and Mesko to Harvard for some kids camp. Two hours in the car back and forth from Foxboro, Mallett was the biggest idiot moron I have even met and a brain as big as a grain of sand or salt depending on your preference. How he do in the NFL? Pats dumped him as fast as Peterman can throw a pick 6. Someone who gives you a bunch of data and nothing else is clueless.

[jtoler]

Another example of many was when I met Ryan Mallett, a year after the Patriots drafted him. Tall, arm like Rodgers and all the physical skills on paper. I was a driver and took him and Mesko to Harvard for some kids camp. Two hours in the car back and forth from Foxboro, Mallett was the biggest idiot moron I have even met and a brain as big as a grain of sand or salt depending on your preference. How he do in the NFL? Pats dumped him as fast as Peterman can throw a pick 6. Someone who gives you a bunch of data and nothing else is clueless.

I noticed he was almost kid like on that gruden qb thing, he acted more immature than the rest.

[thebestthereis]

Dumb as they come, unfortunately he was. My point here isn't to belittle Mallett it's to prove a point that to win at games (sports) where there are other people playing you need to handicap them as much as their 40 yd dash or YPP. Nobody selling picks will have an opinion on this, just dump a bunch of numbers on you that sounds good. You can win by looking at many other factors than statistics, those can be skewed anyway you want to skew them.

[Renegades]

Thats why the draft is basically a 50/50 proposition. For every peyton manning, theres a Jamarcus Russell. Drew Brees was passed over by many teams because he was too short. Lol anybody that watched Brees at Purdue could see that he was a gamer

[Renegades]

I agree with situations being more important, what are some of the type situations you are referring to?

I kinda lump in situational capping with trends. IE double digit home dogs in divisional games hit at about 65%. It didnt work out last monday night with buffalo but its a long term winner. Bet it blindly and its profitable. A diff type of situation would be baylor last sat. Ok st coming off a great win in a big game vs texas. A thrilling late game win. Now they go on the road at baylor who just got blown out on national tv in an early kickoff. Win or lose you knew baylor would give a max effort and play well.

[jtoler]

I kinda lump in situational capping with trends. IE double digit home dogs in divisional games hit at about 65%. It didnt work out last monday night with buffalo but its a long term winner. Bet it blindly and its profitable. A diff type of situation would be baylor last sat. Ok st coming off a great win in a big game vs texas. A thrilling late game win. Now they go on the road at baylor who just got blown out on national tv in an early kickoff. Win or lose you knew baylor would give a max effort and play well.

yes my man I love it. those type things are the way to go there are books too and stuff prob can find online about nfl percentages over decades for different situations. I didnt bet the game but wondered why wazzu was only -7 or -8 against cal when on paper with homefield going by power ratings they should have been about -13. cal killed #8 wazzu last year 37-3 in berkely and once again wazzu was ranked 8th before they met on saturday. one may think wazzu gonna pay some revenge at home this year but that game ended up a 6 pts win. it was bet down, bigger money on cal especially late. here I think the sharp money coming on cal was mostly looking at the fact that the week before wazzu had a hard fought game against a physical stanford team in which they squeaked out a 41-38 game. you hear those stats about how a team does the week after following say an alabama or other very physical team and their records are never good after those games.