Matt Fargo: Jags -3 vs Pats

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  • SBRforum Staff
    Moderator
    • 07-31-06
    • 1306

    #1
    Matt Fargo: Jags -3 vs Pats
    Jags -3 vs Pats

    Game Time: 12/24/2006 1:00:00 PM

    By: Matt Fargo
    The Professional Handicappers League™. Serving the Sports Handicapping Industry Since 1996!

    With the Jaguars at home and facing a must-win this week, play Jacksonville minues the field goal against the New England Patriots.

    Jacksonville was involved in one of the most misleading final scores of the season last week. The Jaguars lost to Tennessee despite outgaining the Titans 396-98 and holding them to only five first downs in the entire game. But all three of Tennessee’s touchdowns were returns by the defense so what should have been a Jacksonville win has now put the Jaguars in a must-win situation this Sunday.

    The Jaguars are 6-1 at home and with a tough game at Kansas City next week, this one needs to be taken. New England beat up on another patsy last weekend to move closer to the division title and a win here would lock up the AFC East. It’s easier said than done, however.

    The Patriots are 5-1 on the road this season, the second best record in the league. But this will be the biggest test away from home on the year. New England was shut out at Miami in its last road contest and the defense it will be facing this Sunday is a notch above that so points will be tough to come by. Jacksonville has the league’s 2nd-ranked defense and the Jags also have allowed the second fewest amount of points after taking away the 21 points that the defense wasn’t responsible for last week. That defense is even better at home where the Jaguars have allowed 258.1 ypg and just 9.1 ppg.

    More impressive is the fact that six of their seven games have come against teams that are either in the playoffs or still involved in the playoff races. Overall, Jacksonville has played the league’s 6th-ranked schedule.

    The Patriots have been equally impressive on the road this year but they have not faced the same caliber of competition. They have struggled over their last four games and, despite going 3-1 in that stretch, New England has been outgained by 62 total yards over that span. Not only are the Jaguars the better team at home, they are out for some revenge. The Patriots easily took care of Jacksonville in last year’s wild card round and there is no doubt the Jaguars will have a little extra in the tank this week. Jacksonville rebounds and keeps their playoffs alive.

    Play: Jaguars -3
  • zippo
    SBR Rookie
    • 12-22-06
    • 48

    #2
    I like the Jags tomorrow too. They are just a different team at home, plus I think they will out physical New England. I'm not sold on New England's offense or defense. Jags should be able to cover the small number. Good luck.
    Comment
    • Checkerboard
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 05-15-06
      • 7799

      #3
      Originally posted by zippo
      I like the Jags tomorrow too. They are just a different team at home, plus I think they will out physical New England. I'm not sold on New England's offense or defense. Jags should be able to cover the small number. Good luck.
      zippo, you're liking all the same sides as me . . . I like Jags
      here too and I have added incentive I need NE to go 0-2
      and NYJ to go 2 and out to fiinsh season as I have small futures I played going into this week NYJ to win AFC east
      at 12:1 (Jets hold 3rd tier tiebreaker with one extra conference win if scenario over last two eeks plays out) . . .
      Comment
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