Manning, Colts still the pride of the AFC South
It was just two seasons ago that the AFC South was arguable the best division top to bottom. Now there's a lot more bottom than top to this foursome. Peyton Manning and the Colts are once again the cream of the group, with Indianapolis preparing for life without Tony Dungy. It should be a real dogfight behind the Colts with the Houston Texans possibly sneaking past both Jacksonville and Tennessee for second-best.
What has happened to the AFC South? This used to be the place. Just two years ago, there were no losing teams in this division – SU or ATS – and everyone but the Houston Texans finished the regular season with at least 10 victories.
Then the bottom fell out of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who went 5-11 (4-12 ATS) last year. Now the Tennessee Titans, the defending division champions at 13-3 (12-4 ATS), are threatening to slip out of Super Bowl contention after letting their most important player walk in free agency.
At least the AFC South still has the Indianapolis Colts. They might not have Tony Dungy as their head coach, but the talent on the field is still enough to challenge for a title. Here are the Super Bowl betting odds at the open and at press time for all four teams in the division.
Not a lot of positive vibes for anyone other than the Texans, who have finished 8-8 in each of the past two years with Matt Schaub as the No. 1 starting quarterback. Their mobility in the futures market foreshadows what is shaping up to be the first winning season in the franchise’s history – which dates all the way back to the 2002 campaign.
Schaub (15 TD passes, 10 INTs in 2008) has only made 11 starts in each of the past two seasons, receiving considerable back-up from Sage Rosenfels along the way. If Schaub goes down again, Detroit cast-off Dan Orlovsky (eight TDs, eight INTs) should provide credible relief this year. This was the No. 11-ranked offense in the league in 2008 according to the efficiency stats at Football Outsiders; the No. 29-ranked defense welcomes free-agent recruits Antonio Smith at end and Cato June at linebacker, plus a host of draft picks led by first-round LB Brian Cushing from USC.
Compare that growth curve to Jacksonville’s. This team went from boom to bust largely because of injuries on both lines, making the Jags a fader’s delight in 2008. The offensive line is revamped with draft picks and the signing of tackle Tra Thomas from Philadelphia, but Jacksonville is still a mess at wide receiver and even more so with last week’s decision to trade Dennis Northcutt to the Lions for safety Gerald Alexander. Now take oft-injured Fred Taylor out of the Jacksonville backfield and put him in New England. How will the Jags recover?
Jacksonville and Houston are tied at 17-4 to win the AFC South, but the Texans have the higher over/under at 8.5 regular-season victories to eight for the Jaguars. I’m predicting another losing season spent in the basement for Jacksonville. And it’s pretty easy to take Indianapolis as a 10-11 chalk to win the division. Jim Caldwell was a Dungy disciple in Tampa Bay before spending seven years as his assistant in Indianapolis, so the game plan should be the same for nine-time Pro Bowler Peyton Manning (27 TDs, 12 INTs) at quarterback. If anything, the turnover in the staff under Caldwell could require some adjustment from the players.
My question is whether the Texans are going to surpass the Titans for second place in the division. Tennessee watched gigantic DT Albert Haynesworth sign with Washington for $41 million guaranteed, more than double what Tennessee was offering. The Titans were 19-8 ATS over the past two years when Haynesworth played (both Pro Bowl years) and 1-4 ATS when he didn’t. Second-round pick Sen’Derrick Marks from Auburn is his replacement. Tough gig.
Tennessee hasn’t done much else this offseason. The QB situation is anything but enviable with Vince Young wasting away on the sidelines and 37-year-old Kerry Collins (12 TDs, seven INTs) providing relief, however admirably. I don’t like their chances at 9-4 to win the AFC South, and I don’t think they’ll meet their over/under of 9.5 wins. Pencil the Titans and Texans in for nine wins apiece, with Houston sneaking away with second place and neither team getting a Wild Card. That’s life in the AFC.
It was just two seasons ago that the AFC South was arguable the best division top to bottom. Now there's a lot more bottom than top to this foursome. Peyton Manning and the Colts are once again the cream of the group, with Indianapolis preparing for life without Tony Dungy. It should be a real dogfight behind the Colts with the Houston Texans possibly sneaking past both Jacksonville and Tennessee for second-best.
What has happened to the AFC South? This used to be the place. Just two years ago, there were no losing teams in this division – SU or ATS – and everyone but the Houston Texans finished the regular season with at least 10 victories.
Then the bottom fell out of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who went 5-11 (4-12 ATS) last year. Now the Tennessee Titans, the defending division champions at 13-3 (12-4 ATS), are threatening to slip out of Super Bowl contention after letting their most important player walk in free agency.
At least the AFC South still has the Indianapolis Colts. They might not have Tony Dungy as their head coach, but the talent on the field is still enough to challenge for a title. Here are the Super Bowl betting odds at the open and at press time for all four teams in the division.
- Indianapolis 8-1, 11-1
- Tennessee 12-1, 16-1
- Houston 40-1, 30-1
- Jacksonville 30-1, 38-1
Not a lot of positive vibes for anyone other than the Texans, who have finished 8-8 in each of the past two years with Matt Schaub as the No. 1 starting quarterback. Their mobility in the futures market foreshadows what is shaping up to be the first winning season in the franchise’s history – which dates all the way back to the 2002 campaign.
Schaub (15 TD passes, 10 INTs in 2008) has only made 11 starts in each of the past two seasons, receiving considerable back-up from Sage Rosenfels along the way. If Schaub goes down again, Detroit cast-off Dan Orlovsky (eight TDs, eight INTs) should provide credible relief this year. This was the No. 11-ranked offense in the league in 2008 according to the efficiency stats at Football Outsiders; the No. 29-ranked defense welcomes free-agent recruits Antonio Smith at end and Cato June at linebacker, plus a host of draft picks led by first-round LB Brian Cushing from USC.
Compare that growth curve to Jacksonville’s. This team went from boom to bust largely because of injuries on both lines, making the Jags a fader’s delight in 2008. The offensive line is revamped with draft picks and the signing of tackle Tra Thomas from Philadelphia, but Jacksonville is still a mess at wide receiver and even more so with last week’s decision to trade Dennis Northcutt to the Lions for safety Gerald Alexander. Now take oft-injured Fred Taylor out of the Jacksonville backfield and put him in New England. How will the Jags recover?
Jacksonville and Houston are tied at 17-4 to win the AFC South, but the Texans have the higher over/under at 8.5 regular-season victories to eight for the Jaguars. I’m predicting another losing season spent in the basement for Jacksonville. And it’s pretty easy to take Indianapolis as a 10-11 chalk to win the division. Jim Caldwell was a Dungy disciple in Tampa Bay before spending seven years as his assistant in Indianapolis, so the game plan should be the same for nine-time Pro Bowler Peyton Manning (27 TDs, 12 INTs) at quarterback. If anything, the turnover in the staff under Caldwell could require some adjustment from the players.
My question is whether the Texans are going to surpass the Titans for second place in the division. Tennessee watched gigantic DT Albert Haynesworth sign with Washington for $41 million guaranteed, more than double what Tennessee was offering. The Titans were 19-8 ATS over the past two years when Haynesworth played (both Pro Bowl years) and 1-4 ATS when he didn’t. Second-round pick Sen’Derrick Marks from Auburn is his replacement. Tough gig.
Tennessee hasn’t done much else this offseason. The QB situation is anything but enviable with Vince Young wasting away on the sidelines and 37-year-old Kerry Collins (12 TDs, seven INTs) providing relief, however admirably. I don’t like their chances at 9-4 to win the AFC South, and I don’t think they’ll meet their over/under of 9.5 wins. Pencil the Titans and Texans in for nine wins apiece, with Houston sneaking away with second place and neither team getting a Wild Card. That’s life in the AFC.