To hedge or not; what would Jesus do?

[4sees]

Got 1500 on the Pats @ EVEN, as a future prior to last week. So, now is one win (no point spread) away to double 3000 or nothing. Question is, to hedge this or not? Options that I'm thinking are as follows:

1) Put like 500 on Philly ML if like +200, so instead of 3000 or 0 (risking 1500), risking only like 500 to win 1000 net. The odds are such that I could also hedge to risk losing 0 if Philly wins game, or still be up like 750 net if Pats win. So, hedging can go from risking 0 guaranteed to win the like 750 net, all the way to risking 1500 for the 1500 net. And, can keep going like 1000 on Philly ML @ +200, would mean I simply win 500 net guaranteed no matter who wins, and get my 1500 back too of course.

2) Put like 1100 on Philly +4.5, so if Pats win & cover, win 400 net, vs. down 1500 if Philly wins. If Philly wins, am down 500 net, instead of 1500. And, if Pats win but don't cover, can still easily hit both to be up 2500 net.

3) No hedge, just let it ride, 1500 double or nothing, Pats just have to win.

4) Press the Pats ML and/or give the 4.5

What to do? Any thoughts, suggestions, ideas out there?

[JZAL12]

I don't post often, but love the Philly +4.5 bet.

[Grosshhit]

I don't post often, but let it ride.

[Stallion]

Never bet against Brady.

[4sees]

I don't post often, but love the Philly +4.5 bet.

Thanks for posting, but is that 4.5 too good to be true? Somehow, my gut says if Pats don't cover Philly wins game, and I could never hit both even though it looks lovingly solid.

[4sees]

I don't post often, but let it ride.

Thanks for posting, and will be doing so as default, unless something rings my bell.

[4sees]

Never bet against Brady.

Smart Stallion, just the hedging for me is not betting against Brady, more like (if I may) just risking less on him.

Even after all the lines are moving Philly's way, Pats are still well over a field goal fave, and so will be watching this week to see how much farther down (if any) the line will go on Brady.

[johnnyvegas13]

Only thing to do here is take eagles pts for a middle

[4sees]

Only thing to do here is take eagles pts for a middle

Man Johnny, nothing would piss the book off more and make me happier if I do that, and it middles. It seems I won't be able to do option 1 without at least something on option 2 as well, just to be in that middle game, presuming if doing option 1 at all.

Super Bowl will be my day of reckoning, and for me to recover from my self inflicted torture by the Crimson, along with all the other nonsense I ultimately need 2500 net (verse 1500 if no hedge). Thus, am still considering pressing the Pats to that, so for me this Super Bowl could be penthouse verse the poorhouse. Do or Die. Though, no hedge and if can get the 1500, or hedge and win something back, for sure puts me in a much stronger position than current status.

So, I'm really torn either way here on early Tuesday. Go all in? Let it play? Hedge? Hedge voices are saying you're in a position to get back your 1500 and guarantee 500 net, so get back your 2000 (give or take / adjust / tweak) but bring something home since they beat the Jags. Let it play voices are saying you're in the driver's seat with just needing Pats straight up here, don't jinx it on a hedge, or go all in to leave yourself no breathing room. All in voices are saying in the sports betting world, what's a better risk than backing Bill/Brady & Co for another Bowl, and so if you're ever going to take your shot surely this is it.

[4sees]

For the record, have 500 (max at WW), and 1000 (max at SB a.k.a. 5D), for this Super Bowl Futures placed at Final 4.

[4sees]

Gronk or no Gronk, game has not seen a better coach or QB, and you just know they have something up their sleeve. Frankly, some might say they even have the refs up their sleeve. I think the whole Gronk last second put on the concussion protocol ploy, and how the coach talked to that reporter about it, is all a ploy to keep us all and Philly guessing. Gives Pats the upper hand to make Philly prepare for Gronk, and to also prepare if there's no Gronk, especially if Gronk plays which I can't imagine he doesn't as long as his head is still attached to his body.

For Pats to prepare for Philly, should be a whole lot easier than having to prepare last year for the Falcons. I'd say the Falcons were the better team compared to Philly here, but also must concede do not feel the Pats are as strong as last year. Also, feel Philly has to play all 60 mins, and no matter what Pats can just do the 2nd half thing. All that experience, done so many times before unlike any other, and these professionals aren't satisfied unless they win it all. And, when it comes down to the end with the game on the line, all that experience makes the difference, right? Don't tell me sure, just look at Saban.

[eeezzzz]

You have the greatest quarterback and coach of all time at even money?

Let it ride you poonanner!

With that being said, I believe Eagles are going to win straight up.

[Igor_1965]

Bet Eagles team total over, you'll win both bets

[4sees]

You have the greatest quarterback and coach of all time at even money?

Let it ride you poonanner!

With that being said, I believe Eagles are going to win straight up.

Game day is here, and do not see me hedging at this point. Am more thinking going all in with option #4, now that Gronk is clear.

[4sees]

Bet Eagles team total over, you'll win both bets

Could win both with that, but could also lose both. 21.5 does seem low, and I'd never take the under anywhere for this game, but don't need to lose focus on the action I have/need on the Pats straight up. With what I have left to play/hedge, it's either all in on the Pats, or insuring that I get something back on the 1500 risked.

[BOA12]

Could win both with that, but could also lose both. 21.5 does seem low, and I'd never take the under anywhere for this game, but don't need to lose focus on the action I have/need on the Pats straight up. With what I have left to play/hedge, it's either all in on the Pats, or insuring that I get something back on the 1500 risked.

6pt teaser Phil +12- Under54 (got early)

[BOA12]

You have the greatest quarterback and coach of all time at even money?

Let it ride you poonanner!

With that being said, I believe Eagles are going to win straight up.

listening to Robin Trower "Day of the Eagle"

[jimminn]

Jesus just told me let it ride !!!

[4sees]

Jesus just told me let it ride !!!

[SOSANA]

I don't post often but let it ride and hedge in-game if Pats go up

[PAULYPOKER]

Let it ride as odds are in your favor........

However nothing is guaranteed except for hedging............

Get greedy or be happy with the Guaranteed hedge.......

[4sees]

I don't post often but let it ride and hedge in-game if Pats go down

Juice too high for in-game considerations for me on this one; need to focus on Pats winning. Am thinking all in with Pats -5.5 (so still cover with the TD in OT, and 6 was the opening line) @ +104.

[4sees]

Let it ride as odds are in your favor........

However nothing is guaranteed except for hedging............

Get greedy or be happy with the Guaranteed hedge.......

Phil +3 @+125 could risk 400 for 500, makes it ... lose 1000 vs. lose 1500 if Phl wins, 1100 net vs. 1500 net winnings if Pats win, and if Pats win by 1 or 2 it's up 2 G-notes. [Phil +3.5 @ -101]

[4sees]

Will the Beantown hoop teams win this afternoon, that's the current question.

[4sees]

Bing Bang Beantown ... C's & Eagles nicely done ... now time for the trifecta

[reesp18]

I like the patriots -4.5 BIG TIME. I would let it ride, but how much is does $1500 mean to you is the question, hedging down the middle and splitting is never a bad idea either. GL with your choice, i didnt read thru to see if you made a side yet.

[hotcross]

reesp, how you been? long time no see

and to the original question, probably already posted but wouldn't Jesus already know the likely outcome of the game?

I mean unless we are talking about a random Mexican dude named Jesus

[4sees]

Opted for option # 3, letting it play out, as strong case for both (hedge & all-in) Go Pats!

[reesp18]

reesp, how you been? long time no see

and to the original question, probably already posted but wouldn't Jesus already know the likely outcome of the game?

I mean unless we are talking about a random Mexican dude named Jesus

Hey whats up Hotcross, been good laying low, hbu? and ya long time for surethough, although i poke around a post sometimes on here still, i got burnt out over the summer posting so much, but i figured i wanna do another mlb thread, so il be back alot more here soon.

But ya i hope Jesus bet on the eagles haha i sure missed that call big time. afterwards i see it now, but the whole couple weeks i think i got blinded by the pats and the TOM talk. And sorry to see you get hit hard on that as well 4sees..

[hotcross]

I played the Patriots ML also. Just 2.60 units risked, nothing crazy, plus my betpoints here. Was pretty sure Pats were gonna win, and it all came down to that strip sack fumble the Eagles pulled off to put the nail in the coffin.

Eagles did outplay them the whole game, tho.

[4sees]

reesp, how you been? long time no see

and to the original question, probably already posted but wouldn't Jesus already know the likely outcome of the game?

I mean unless we are talking about a random Mexican dude named Jesus

For is the reason we seek guidance from the Divine Powers. And yet, so it goes.

[4sees]

Only thing to do here is take eagles pts for a middle

Johnny is the man and JZAL12. I salute thee for thy winning posts, and kick myself for not tailing yous and all that line movement on Philly.

[4sees]

Hey whats up Hotcross, been good laying low, hbu? and ya long time for surethough, although i poke around a post sometimes on here still, i got burnt out over the summer posting so much, but i figured i wanna do another mlb thread, so il be back alot more here soon.

But ya i hope Jesus bet on the eagles haha i sure missed that call big time. afterwards i see it now, but the whole couple weeks i think i got blinded by the pats and the TOM talk. And sorry to see you get hit hard on that as well 4sees..

Getting hit hard everywhere now man from Clemson, Georgia, Pats, Bitcoin, stock market, it's all crashing hard. Jesus said there would be times like these, didn't he? God help me Jesus, Joseph, Mary and all the little ones.

[4sees]

Did seem like Philly smacked them hard early, and Blount made a loud statement. The QB receiving plays + vs. - were tragedies for me, just unn ... bee ... leeve ... ubble. Would love to know what happens, if Brady's was a completion ... game changer ... we'll never know. Took the 3rd qtr for Gronk to show up? Though the Pats D has no excuse to give up 40, benching Butler, missed PAT, and showing Brady smooching his son is all shit I don't need to be seeing. Just somehow it all still came down to the hail Mary in the end, and I could see the catch, 2pt conv, and winning it on OT. And yet, 'Bama gets the hail Mary, Minny gets the hail Mary, and Pats get Folesed, thank you very, very, very little.

[reesp18]

I played the Patriots ML also. Just 2.60 units risked, nothing crazy, plus my betpoints here. Was pretty sure Pats were gonna win, and it all came down to that strip sack fumble the Eagles pulled off to put the nail in the coffin.

Eagles did outplay them the whole game, tho.

Ya i didnt throw much on it either for the first time in a long time during the superbowl, i thought the under was a good play too actually and it was the SINGLE highest scoring PLAYOFF GAME, outta all the playoff games ever. I think it came down to alot of moments but that last like 8 min stretch where the eagles drive all the way down the field wdown 33-32 was the difference, got the 4th down conversion and then didnt even have to settle for the field goal. that was key to patriots just getting deflated. the strip sack wsa the final nail.