Another early Sunday morning and another addition of the Math Man's NFL Picks.
Here we go.
SPARK SPORT’S NFL POWER RATING - ATS
(70.59%, 12-5, +6.71u, +67.10% ROI)
Spark Sport's NFL Score Prediction System - ALL
(61.54%, 16-10, +6.28u, +62.80% ROI)
ALMAC'S LEAN AND LIKES...
It's been a long week mulling over alot of these picks and I still can't seem to be able to put my finger on just one pick that I like alot. The best index spread difference on my power rating cheat sheet is surprisingly Cleveland +3. Based on the numbers on the power rating - Cleveland should be able to beat Green Bay and get their first win of the season. As mentioned in my post earlier this week - These teams are roughly only 3-4 points apart. Cleveland is home, which gives them a decent home field advantage on the cheat sheet. Cleveland now has two legit wide receivers. Josh Gordon is worth a few points in the power rankings. Cleveland 17-37 ATS without Gordon and they are 17-17-2 ATS when he plays. Gordon looks good - he makes a difference. I lean the Browns.
Lean: Cleveland Browns +3.0 (1.91)
As for the score predictor - the highest rated index differences on my YPP/YPG cheat sheet is the Houston Texans -2.5 vs San Francisco. However this is a math glitch that can only be explained by the cushioned numbers DeShaun Watson put up while he was QB for the Texans. If anything I would lean SF +2.5 here because Jimmy G is looking good in his new uniform and the Texans are a dumpster fire. It is rare that I go against the numbers but I PROBABLY LEAN San Francisco +2.5 on this one.
The next highest index difference is the Chiefs -4 vs Oakland.
The score prediction cheat sheet has KC beating Oakland by 10.4 points. Again, I am weary pulling the trigger on this one and will stick to it as a lean for now.
Lean: Kansas City Chiefs -4.0 (1.91)
The next highest on the SIDES list is a douzie and a real head scratcher, but it might just be so crazy it could work. Carolina +3 vs the Vikings.
Listen, I know the Vikings look unbeatable right now - but the Panthers have really been coming into their own lately and the numbers don't lie. Based on the cheat sheet - the Vikings are only a single point better than the Panthers when it comes to YPP/YPG rating. Take that and minus a modest -2.5 points for home field advantage and you have the Panthers beating the Vikings 24-21. Those are numbers I can definitely get down with. Whenever you have a dog with a slight statistical edge over a favorite - at home - you take it. You run with it. Like Cam Newton sliding into the end zone. I lean Panthers.
Lean: Carolina Panthers +2.5 (2.00)
As for totals - I have three that I am really liking right now and as of 6am EST Sunday morning - I have yet to decide which one to take. Writing this all out will probably put me over the edge on one them.
Let's start with the game we just touched on - Carolina vs Minnesota. Both teams have above average offenses so it seems that a total so low may be a mistake on the bookies part. This may have something to do with the Under being 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. But something tells me this game is going to be different. I see both teams scoring over 20pts each here. I lean over.
Lean: Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers OVER 40.0 (1.91)
Seattle/Jacksonville is an intriguing match-up that may end up being a classic. Both teams have a powerful offense, both teams play decent defense. The only difference is that Jacksonville may be the best defensive team in the league when they are in the lead. Problem with that notion though is that Seattle may be too quick and too agile for Jacksonville to catch. The Jags have arguably the best pass rush in the league and who knows if Wilson has enough gas in the tank to keep his MVP candidacy alive after that magical performance vs the Eagles last week. A total of just 40 might be a market over reaction to the Jacksonville defense who allows the least amount of rushing yards per attempt in the league. However they have yet to face a force like Russel Wilson this season. I think both teams score 20+, I think the Jags finally show their offensive prowl here - I think the game goes over. Take the O40
Lean: Seattle Seahawks vs. Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 40.0 (1.91)
The Eagles invasion will happen vs the Rams this afternoon in LA. There is uncertainty and tension surrounding many people in Los Angeles right now due to the extremely dangerous situation regarding the south California wild fires. This will do two things - distract members of the Rams roster - and keep Rams fans from going to the game today. With all that said I still think the Rams are a better team than the Eagles. Although my cheat sheets say they are about equal - or almost exactly equal for that matter.
If you swap a slight home field advantage towards the Eagles favor - as we are quite sure the Eagles invasion will be fully active at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum; you end up with the Eagles having a 1pt edge over the Rams. Such a close score makes me think the scoring in this game will be through the roof - especially when you get two high powered offenses together - and add in a bit of non-football anxiety mixed with a funny crowd dynamic and you get what I think is going to be a total shootout between offenses.
The fact that the total opened at 50 and has been bet down to 47.5 might be a gift from the sharps attempting to bet the total down and then hammering the other side at post. It may be creating a situation where there is low hanging fruit waiting to be picked up on this total line. I predict both teams score at least 28pts. I lean on the OVER.
Lean: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams OVER 47.5 (1.87)
LEAN OF THE DAY:
1u - (10cents) - Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers OVER 40.0 (1.91)
BEST BETS:
0.55u - ($38) - San Francisco +3 @ 1.76,
0.5u - ($35) - Jacksonville ML @ 1.77,
HAPPY CAPPIN'! - Almac, MathMan & Spark Sports!
Here we go.
SPARK SPORT’S NFL POWER RATING - ATS
(70.59%, 12-5, +6.71u, +67.10% ROI)
Spark Sport's NFL Score Prediction System - ALL
(61.54%, 16-10, +6.28u, +62.80% ROI)
ALMAC'S LEAN AND LIKES...
It's been a long week mulling over alot of these picks and I still can't seem to be able to put my finger on just one pick that I like alot. The best index spread difference on my power rating cheat sheet is surprisingly Cleveland +3. Based on the numbers on the power rating - Cleveland should be able to beat Green Bay and get their first win of the season. As mentioned in my post earlier this week - These teams are roughly only 3-4 points apart. Cleveland is home, which gives them a decent home field advantage on the cheat sheet. Cleveland now has two legit wide receivers. Josh Gordon is worth a few points in the power rankings. Cleveland 17-37 ATS without Gordon and they are 17-17-2 ATS when he plays. Gordon looks good - he makes a difference. I lean the Browns.
Lean: Cleveland Browns +3.0 (1.91)
As for the score predictor - the highest rated index differences on my YPP/YPG cheat sheet is the Houston Texans -2.5 vs San Francisco. However this is a math glitch that can only be explained by the cushioned numbers DeShaun Watson put up while he was QB for the Texans. If anything I would lean SF +2.5 here because Jimmy G is looking good in his new uniform and the Texans are a dumpster fire. It is rare that I go against the numbers but I PROBABLY LEAN San Francisco +2.5 on this one.
The next highest index difference is the Chiefs -4 vs Oakland.
The score prediction cheat sheet has KC beating Oakland by 10.4 points. Again, I am weary pulling the trigger on this one and will stick to it as a lean for now.
Lean: Kansas City Chiefs -4.0 (1.91)
The next highest on the SIDES list is a douzie and a real head scratcher, but it might just be so crazy it could work. Carolina +3 vs the Vikings.
Listen, I know the Vikings look unbeatable right now - but the Panthers have really been coming into their own lately and the numbers don't lie. Based on the cheat sheet - the Vikings are only a single point better than the Panthers when it comes to YPP/YPG rating. Take that and minus a modest -2.5 points for home field advantage and you have the Panthers beating the Vikings 24-21. Those are numbers I can definitely get down with. Whenever you have a dog with a slight statistical edge over a favorite - at home - you take it. You run with it. Like Cam Newton sliding into the end zone. I lean Panthers.
Lean: Carolina Panthers +2.5 (2.00)
As for totals - I have three that I am really liking right now and as of 6am EST Sunday morning - I have yet to decide which one to take. Writing this all out will probably put me over the edge on one them.
Let's start with the game we just touched on - Carolina vs Minnesota. Both teams have above average offenses so it seems that a total so low may be a mistake on the bookies part. This may have something to do with the Under being 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these two teams. But something tells me this game is going to be different. I see both teams scoring over 20pts each here. I lean over.
Lean: Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers OVER 40.0 (1.91)
Seattle/Jacksonville is an intriguing match-up that may end up being a classic. Both teams have a powerful offense, both teams play decent defense. The only difference is that Jacksonville may be the best defensive team in the league when they are in the lead. Problem with that notion though is that Seattle may be too quick and too agile for Jacksonville to catch. The Jags have arguably the best pass rush in the league and who knows if Wilson has enough gas in the tank to keep his MVP candidacy alive after that magical performance vs the Eagles last week. A total of just 40 might be a market over reaction to the Jacksonville defense who allows the least amount of rushing yards per attempt in the league. However they have yet to face a force like Russel Wilson this season. I think both teams score 20+, I think the Jags finally show their offensive prowl here - I think the game goes over. Take the O40
Lean: Seattle Seahawks vs. Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 40.0 (1.91)
The Eagles invasion will happen vs the Rams this afternoon in LA. There is uncertainty and tension surrounding many people in Los Angeles right now due to the extremely dangerous situation regarding the south California wild fires. This will do two things - distract members of the Rams roster - and keep Rams fans from going to the game today. With all that said I still think the Rams are a better team than the Eagles. Although my cheat sheets say they are about equal - or almost exactly equal for that matter.
If you swap a slight home field advantage towards the Eagles favor - as we are quite sure the Eagles invasion will be fully active at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum; you end up with the Eagles having a 1pt edge over the Rams. Such a close score makes me think the scoring in this game will be through the roof - especially when you get two high powered offenses together - and add in a bit of non-football anxiety mixed with a funny crowd dynamic and you get what I think is going to be a total shootout between offenses.
The fact that the total opened at 50 and has been bet down to 47.5 might be a gift from the sharps attempting to bet the total down and then hammering the other side at post. It may be creating a situation where there is low hanging fruit waiting to be picked up on this total line. I predict both teams score at least 28pts. I lean on the OVER.
Lean: Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Rams OVER 47.5 (1.87)
LEAN OF THE DAY:
1u - (10cents) - Minnesota Vikings vs. Carolina Panthers OVER 40.0 (1.91)
BEST BETS:
0.55u - ($38) - San Francisco +3 @ 1.76,
0.5u - ($35) - Jacksonville ML @ 1.77,
HAPPY CAPPIN'! - Almac, MathMan & Spark Sports!
