Contrarian Pool Picks - YTD 2016 Totals

Renegades · 09-05-17, 08:56 PM

How many people are in the pool?

Chcbleachers · 09-05-17, 10:00 PM

several thousand

ChuckyTheGoat · 09-06-17, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by Chcbleachers

I'll publish these one more time this year yet here are 2016's results as a point of reference:

YTD 2016 Results:

Going opposite the....

80% Picks (11-18)
70% Picks (33-25-2)

More to come.

One question. Does the 2nd # (70%) INCLUDE the 80% picks? Or exclude the 80% picks?

IE, 33-25 is from pool of 70 to 80%?

Hard to gauge from one year of results, but u may have an angle. Also, so key to know what # u use for grading.

ChuckyTheGoat · 09-06-17, 09:26 PM

Would like to hear more on this topic. I'm a believer in Contrarian handicapping, especially on a public sport like NFL.

So many square opinions. Would like to hear best way to quantify it. Used to hear about "square" Office pools.

Chcbleachers · 09-07-17, 11:09 PM

Good question - you are correct, these are two separate buckets of games. 29 total fell into the 80%+ bucket, while 60 games had 70% - 79% of the betting public on it. All said, nearly 90 games fell into these one-sided category last season.

Historically going against the 80% games were really solid yet last year was a gutterball. I changed my betting this season to put the same amounts on both the 70% and 80%'ers versus having more on the 80's.

So far so good tonight on KC (only 22% had them so I backed up the truck on the Chiefs.)

Chcbleachers · 09-07-17, 11:09 PM

Good question - you are correct, these are two separate buckets of games. 29 total fell into the 80%+ bucket, while 60 games had 70% - 79% of the betting public on it. All said, nearly 90 games fell into these one-sided category last season.

Historically going against the 80% games were really solid yet last year was a gutterball. I changed my betting this season to put the same amounts on both the 70% and 80%'ers versus having more on the 80's.

So far so good tonight on KC (only 22% had them so I backed up the truck on the Chiefs.)

ChuckyTheGoat · 09-08-17, 07:50 PM

I love contrarian thinking. Wanted to make one more note, re: contrarian-thinking. These % stats depend on
* # of tickets
* % of tickets
* Who was betting on what # (as the line moves)?

Think about the McGregor/Mayweather fight. A lot of info out there was a bit deceiving:
* A lot more McG TICKETS
* Much bigger AVG TICKET size on Mayw
* B/c McG was a sizable dog, much bigger LIABILITY if McG won. If Mayw won, that payout on -500 would be pretty small.

2daBank · 09-08-17, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by ChuckyTheGoat

One question. Does the 2nd # (70%) INCLUDE the 80% picks? Or exclude the 80% picks?

IE, 33-25 is from pool of 70 to 80%?

Hard to gauge from one year of results, but u may have an angle. Also, so key to know what # u use for grading.

If this fading those percentages in the Westgate contest I believe last year was unusually bad as I've seen guys post those for many years and typically do pretty damn well..