Will post my NFL plays here. Don't anticipate betting much, already don't like any of the games this wild card weekend but will also be a place to share thoughts, injuries, general analysis, line moves, etc.
Saturday Games
Oakland @Houston
Line opened at HOU -3 and early action pushed it to -4. Very low total at 36.5
Brock starting for Houston and rookie Connor Cook making his first start ever for Oakland (did see some time last week against Denver). Lamar Miller back, both teams probably will look to run the ball. Something to note, while Brock has been one of the worst fukking quarterbacks in the league, he was actually 5-1 at home (6-1 if you count Jacksonville). Stats across the board also much more improved when playing at NRG. Oakland was also outgained by their opponent in 9 out of their first 10 games or something like that. Houston defense really solid across the board. Their dline one of the few that can handle oakland's monster oline. Cook is a bit of a wildcard here which makes this a bit tough to handicap but still I think I like Houston here. Don't like the spread too much though, even at the opener of -3. Might be a candidate to throw in a 2 team parlay though. No play on total. Both teams should go run heavy here but turnovers could make this a bit unpredictable on such a low total.
Detroit @Seattle
Line opened at 7.5 juiced on the dog, currently sits at 8. Total 43
Both teams limping into the playoffs. Seattle 3-3 in last 6 games but still no problem clinching playoff spot because of weak division. Lions lost 3 straight "must win" games but made playoffs because other teams lost. Stafford been great this year under Jim Bob Cooter but Lions still a flawed team. Trailed in the 4th quarter in close to all their games. Probably expended a lot of effort against Dallas and GB and losing both can't give them much confidence. Lions also only played in I believe 2 outdoor games all year (@GB @NYG lost both). Seattle hit by injuries. Earl Thomas out for the year. Russell Wilson played hurt for a good part of the season. Wilson did get to rest for most of the 2nd half against SF though while Detroit played Sunday night so even shorter week for Lions. Better coach for Seattle, huge home field advantage and outdoors. Like Seattle here BUT their defense isn't what it used to be and I can also see Lions getting a backdoor cover here. Another candidate for ML parlay or maybe a teaser though the other games don't have traditional "Wong" numbers to use. No play on total. Defenses for both sides a little weak but weather will be important here. Lions could hardly put up any points against the Giants but faced a better defense there too. Early forecast calls for cold weather with possible snow.
Sunday Games
Miami @Pittsburgh
Line opened at 10 juiced on the dog, hasn't moved much despite a probable avalanche of Pittsburgh money. Total opened at 47.5 down to 46.5
Probably staying away from this one. Will be interesting to see if books move off 10 at some point or if sharps even consider Miami here. Gase done a great job this year but team definitely overachieved. Defense is really vulnerable here. On paper this looks like a blowout, Miami's only hope is obviously their run game with Ajayi. This was basically the reason for their success in the regular season meeting that Miami won (well besides Ben getting concussed out of the game). Tannehill also out but Moore has done well and don't really think he's much of a dropoff at this point. There could be some correlation here in that if Miami gets the ground game going and controls the clock, they stand a much better chance of covering 10. But if Pittsburgh jumps out to 14-0 lead and forces Miami to throw, it's probably a blowout and an over. Early sharp money on under is probably predicated on Miami sticking to a run heavy gameplan. Nothing for me for now. Might do a Miami + Under parlay.
NY Giants @Green Bay
Line opened as high as 7.5 (!) but quickly bet down to 4.5 where it currently sits. Total 44.5
I wanted to play the under here but market caught on very quickly. 44.5 might still have some value left though. Giants defense probably the best defense among playoff teams. Really solid up front and in the back though a little susceptible to the short passing game. Either way, I think GB oline will have their hands full here dealing with
Olivier Vernon and Damon Harrison. Janoris Jenkins is probable so really hard to see him not giving it a go here. Initially liked Giants here as well but they might really regret going all out against Washington when they could have rested their starters. I would like to play them but at +6 or more. Some key injuries for GB, Quinton Rollins doubtful, Demarious Randall questionable, does not help an already banged up secondary. Eli SHOULD have some success here and he does turn it up for the playoffs but I'm not sure I can trust him at 4.5. Weather is also key here. Early forecast though predicts mild weather so can't go under 44.5 as of now.
Locking in 1 play right now
ML Parlay Houston(-200)/Seattle(-375) -111
Saturday Games
Oakland @Houston
Line opened at HOU -3 and early action pushed it to -4. Very low total at 36.5
Brock starting for Houston and rookie Connor Cook making his first start ever for Oakland (did see some time last week against Denver). Lamar Miller back, both teams probably will look to run the ball. Something to note, while Brock has been one of the worst fukking quarterbacks in the league, he was actually 5-1 at home (6-1 if you count Jacksonville). Stats across the board also much more improved when playing at NRG. Oakland was also outgained by their opponent in 9 out of their first 10 games or something like that. Houston defense really solid across the board. Their dline one of the few that can handle oakland's monster oline. Cook is a bit of a wildcard here which makes this a bit tough to handicap but still I think I like Houston here. Don't like the spread too much though, even at the opener of -3. Might be a candidate to throw in a 2 team parlay though. No play on total. Both teams should go run heavy here but turnovers could make this a bit unpredictable on such a low total.
Detroit @Seattle
Line opened at 7.5 juiced on the dog, currently sits at 8. Total 43
Both teams limping into the playoffs. Seattle 3-3 in last 6 games but still no problem clinching playoff spot because of weak division. Lions lost 3 straight "must win" games but made playoffs because other teams lost. Stafford been great this year under Jim Bob Cooter but Lions still a flawed team. Trailed in the 4th quarter in close to all their games. Probably expended a lot of effort against Dallas and GB and losing both can't give them much confidence. Lions also only played in I believe 2 outdoor games all year (@GB @NYG lost both). Seattle hit by injuries. Earl Thomas out for the year. Russell Wilson played hurt for a good part of the season. Wilson did get to rest for most of the 2nd half against SF though while Detroit played Sunday night so even shorter week for Lions. Better coach for Seattle, huge home field advantage and outdoors. Like Seattle here BUT their defense isn't what it used to be and I can also see Lions getting a backdoor cover here. Another candidate for ML parlay or maybe a teaser though the other games don't have traditional "Wong" numbers to use. No play on total. Defenses for both sides a little weak but weather will be important here. Lions could hardly put up any points against the Giants but faced a better defense there too. Early forecast calls for cold weather with possible snow.
Sunday Games
Miami @Pittsburgh
Line opened at 10 juiced on the dog, hasn't moved much despite a probable avalanche of Pittsburgh money. Total opened at 47.5 down to 46.5
Probably staying away from this one. Will be interesting to see if books move off 10 at some point or if sharps even consider Miami here. Gase done a great job this year but team definitely overachieved. Defense is really vulnerable here. On paper this looks like a blowout, Miami's only hope is obviously their run game with Ajayi. This was basically the reason for their success in the regular season meeting that Miami won (well besides Ben getting concussed out of the game). Tannehill also out but Moore has done well and don't really think he's much of a dropoff at this point. There could be some correlation here in that if Miami gets the ground game going and controls the clock, they stand a much better chance of covering 10. But if Pittsburgh jumps out to 14-0 lead and forces Miami to throw, it's probably a blowout and an over. Early sharp money on under is probably predicated on Miami sticking to a run heavy gameplan. Nothing for me for now. Might do a Miami + Under parlay.
NY Giants @Green Bay
Line opened as high as 7.5 (!) but quickly bet down to 4.5 where it currently sits. Total 44.5
I wanted to play the under here but market caught on very quickly. 44.5 might still have some value left though. Giants defense probably the best defense among playoff teams. Really solid up front and in the back though a little susceptible to the short passing game. Either way, I think GB oline will have their hands full here dealing with
Olivier Vernon and Damon Harrison. Janoris Jenkins is probable so really hard to see him not giving it a go here. Initially liked Giants here as well but they might really regret going all out against Washington when they could have rested their starters. I would like to play them but at +6 or more. Some key injuries for GB, Quinton Rollins doubtful, Demarious Randall questionable, does not help an already banged up secondary. Eli SHOULD have some success here and he does turn it up for the playoffs but I'm not sure I can trust him at 4.5. Weather is also key here. Early forecast though predicts mild weather so can't go under 44.5 as of now.
Locking in 1 play right now
ML Parlay Houston(-200)/Seattle(-375) -111