AFC Title Game ML

[Hawk8568]

What do you guys think the ML is going to be for Pitt or KC @ NE?

I believe the spread will be in the 5.5/6 range ... which would make the ML roughly +210.

Thinking of taking a large position on NE at -150 for AFC champs now to beat the ML later, opening a hedge.

Other angle. Buy NE now at -150. Then sell points on whomever they are playing to match the juice and have a free middle on the game. Example: Play NE now at -150, then play KC +3 at +150 vs NE in the AFC title game. So the handicap there is: is the chance of hitting a middle (or pushing one) greater than the chance that NE loses to Miami, Houston, or Oakland at home. I think the answer is yes?

Thoughts?

[BigdaddyQH]

OI hope you have a lot of money and a book that will let you play it because that is the only way you are going to make enough to make your wager worth while. Most of these types of wagers end up in pushes, which means it may cost you a little vig. To be successful in playing middles, you have to have the ability to wager large amounts of money at atleast two different books, and then have a big enough spread difference at those two books to make it a legitimate wager. Hard to find during the playoffs.

[dmncnlou]

Kansas city will beat NE straight up as 6 point dogs. Don't be fooled by the spread.

[Snowball]

the math and contingencies are too great to lay -150 right now.
I actually see -168.
if the Pats are on your mind then take them to win the SB +175
which is a world of difference, you can hedge against it, they won't really
be dogs in a SB and very well could be favorites.

Pats are in your head because everyone knows going into Gillette and
trying to beat them in playoffs is virtually impossible.

[Hawk8568]

Kansas city will beat NE straight up as 6 point dogs. Don't be fooled by the spread.

I see that you didnt read what I wrote. Or you just go into random threads saying things.

[Hawk8568]

Yeah, the Pats arent on my mind. In fact, the reason this situation exists is because they are (or will be) on everyone elses mind. I got Pats at -150, knowing they will be at least -250 or greater in two weeks when the game is played.

I'm not betting on the Pats, I'm just getting ahead of the market where I can trade out later.

[Hawk8568]

the math and contingencies are too great to lay -150 right now.
I actually see -168.
if the Pats are on your mind then take them to win the SB +175
which is a world of difference, you can hedge against it, they won't really
be dogs in a SB and very well could be favorites.

Pats are in your head because everyone knows going into Gillette and
trying to beat them in playoffs is virtually impossible.

Also, you are correct that -150 is gone. It moved to -165 and then -170 not long after I posted.

[Hawk8568]

OI hope you have a lot of money and a book that will let you play it because that is the only way you are going to make enough to make your wager worth while. Most of these types of wagers end up in pushes, which means it may cost you a little vig. To be successful in playing middles, you have to have the ability to wager large amounts of money at atleast two different books, and then have a big enough spread difference at those two books to make it a legitimate wager. Hard to find during the playoffs.

Betting Pats AFC Champs -150 early in the week before the Texans game beats the line this week by 110 cents. Well worth the investment considering the only risk was NE losing at home to Houston.

Just bet Steelers +215 to cover most of the NE future ... free money with a NE win.