NFL Week 11 Discussion

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  • austintx05
    SBR MVP
    • 08-24-06
    • 3156

    #1
    NFL Week 11 Discussion
    I am not concentrating solely on NFL as I have called it a season in NCAA. I just want to briefly run through some games and get a discussion going on amongst the board.

    Oakland +9.5 vs KC - While Oakland is viewed as the most pathetic excuse for a football team, their defense ha snot played poorly other than a groin shot to Jeremy Stevens . I believe this is a low scoring game as the total suggests. Herm is still one of the most conservative coaches next to Marty and I do not see a blowout here. Green will make his first start and a quick "rusty turnover" could make it an uphill climb for KC.

    Indy vs Dallas +1 - Colts will be playin their 3rd road game in 4 weeks vs a team who has a very balanced offense. While I know there are strong feelings as to why the Colts will win by most bettors, I see Dallas with a great opportunity to win here. It is going to require holding Manning under 300 yards and Jones/Barber to combine for 160-175 yards rushing.

    Cincy vs NO -3.5 - I think this line should be closer to 5. Brees has proven he is one of the better QB's in the league and I just see these two teams going in different directions. NO is on the verge of making the playoffs and and Cincy has provwen that while thier offense "looks" to be back on track, that they have yet to be able to hold a lead. Not so sure it gets any easier in the Superdome.

    Pittsburgh vs Cleveland +3.5 - Cleveland looks to have some confidence growing. As many points as Pitt has put up in recent games, I see these as a dog fight. Troy P has been cleared after a concussion for this weeks game, but I still have to wonder how he will hold up. Droughns is said to be out and I need to find out his status, but in what should be a defensive game I lean to the Browns. Will Ben go back to throwing INT's or resemble his performance from last week?

    Tenn vs Philly -13 - I always try to spot one of those blowout games. As crazy as the NFL gets there always seems to be 1 game that pans out how it is "supposed" to. I think the line is this high for a reason. Philly had an impressive win vs a better defensive team in Washington, so I see this line about right in Lincoln. Rumor has it that Andy Reid will be doing less of the playcalling as he wants to see more of a balanced attack.

    Atlanta +4 vs Baltimore - Ray Lewis is out and I actually like Atlanta in this spot. They look like world beaters vs great teams and they look like a JV squad vs teams like Detroit. Baltimore has won their last two games by a minimal margin.

    Seattle vs SF +4 - 49ers play well at home and even though Alexander is expected to play Holmgren said he will not play the entire game. I actually expected this gameplan from Mike as he might be a bit more conservative considering the matchup here. I really don't like laying points with Seneca Wallace.

    New England vs GB +5.5 - Pats off 2 losses.....hmmm....I actually want to play the Pack in this spot. Green has been running well lately and in doing so it has taken pressure off of Favre which has limited his INT's.
  • Razz
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-22-05
    • 5632

    #2
    Good luck. Looking at Oakland, Dallas, and Atlanta myself.
    Comment
    • dave11486
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 02-25-06
      • 999

      #3
      Haha these plays are great man. I was likin Oakland, ATL, GB, and NO.
      Comment
      • austintx05
        SBR MVP
        • 08-24-06
        • 3156

        #4
        Originally posted by dave11486
        Haha these plays are great man. I was likin Oakland, ATL, GB, and NO.
        Dave - whats funny bro? Just curious really. I will probably not play all of these games, but wanted to get some initial thoughts out.

        What are your thoughts?
        Comment
        • dave11486
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 02-25-06
          • 999

          #5
          I just like your plays because they are almost identical to mine, so it just made me laugh.

          Anyways:

          Oakland +9.5

          This is a great time to make a play on Oakland. Oakland is still viewed as "absolutely horrendous" and they have showed some signs of life in my opinion. They will likely keep this game low scoring and actually KC has pretty bad defense.


          Atlanta +4

          Atlanta needs this game and Baltimore really doesn't. Like you said Baltimore also has a small margin of victory, so that really is the key.


          Green Bay +5.5

          Has played great at home. They will hand the Pats their 3rd straight loss.


          NO -3.5

          This is my favorite because is it time to fade the Bengals, even though it was a while back. Bengals cannot win without their D and that will not show up, it never does. Bengals need this game, but NO needs it just as bad after a loss last week. "Plain and Simple" the Bengals are no good.

          Just my opinions.
          Comment
          • austintx05
            SBR MVP
            • 08-24-06
            • 3156

            #6
            1. We both agree on the spot with this one. I don't think the KC defense is bad, their secondary is the best part of it. I do agree a low scoring affair favors an Oakland cover.

            2. Just considering the margin, it could be a FG game. Vick seems to do well when he is blitzed, he seems to find the open receiver and when ytou face Baltimore you need to know how to react to the blitz.

            3. GB is a total contrarian play. Asking GB to give the Pats their 3rd straight loss in a row. Could happen, but I will stick to the points.

            4. I agree totally on NO. Line should be about 5. I think people just see Cincinnati comuing off of a shootout and think that NO will not be able to outscore them. I for one think that NO's defense is very capable of holding Cinci to 24 points or less, which would equate to a NO cover. Squares are getting sold on the hook and I don't see the 1/2 point being a factor.
            Comment
            • dave11486
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 02-25-06
              • 999

              #7
              I usually use a lot of different factors in the NFL. One major factor is how the public bets in this particular sport because everyone watches the NFL unlike many other sports, so usually people think they know it all. So, I look to burn the public on that aspect.
              Comment
              • austintx05
                SBR MVP
                • 08-24-06
                • 3156

                #8
                As much as I hate the "public fade" conspiracy, it does work for NFL.
                Comment
                • onlooker
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 08-10-05
                  • 36572

                  #9
                  I have nothing with or against you on your slate of games. Good luck with them. Only 3 plays for me on Sunday.
                  Comment
                  • dave11486
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 02-25-06
                    • 999

                    #10
                    Originally posted by austintx05
                    As much as I hate the "public fade" conspiracy, it does work for NFL.
                    Yeah I agree. I don't like to make plays just because it is not a public bet, but it is different for the NFL. I think everyone can agree with that.
                    Comment
                    • McBa1n
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-02-06
                      • 2642

                      #11
                      I like the Oak play - KC is mauled with injuries. The points here are fantastic... I don't care HOW bad Oakland is, KC is in big trouble with all the players that will be out.

                      I'm also on ATL. No reason why. I hate Atlanta. I hate how little they give Dunn the ball. I hate that Crumpler is dominating some games and then 0 for the next. I think Vick stinks and his attitude stinks. I think Atlanta's D is not as good as it should be with their personnel. I hate how Atlanta is consistently inconsistent. I also hate how Atlanta burns me every week. SOOO - In light of losing on Atl 2 weeks in a row - I'm going to martingale them this week to make up for all that bad play. Hehe - no logic with this pick. I hate the play...
                      Comment
                      • Checkerboard
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 05-15-06
                        • 7799

                        #12
                        Austin, I don't know how you 'cap, we seem to like
                        an uncanny lot of the same games . . .

                        I'm with you on all the sides you posted here except for CLE.

                        A home dog in the 3-7 range after a few consecutive covers
                        doesn't sit well with me.

                        I mean, I could be wrong here, but I see value in the spread scenario.

                        PITT plays them well and, if I've got it right, smoked them out last time in CLE, for what it's worth.

                        I wouldn't be surprised if it does turn into a dog fight and CLE
                        wins, but I think and feel the value is with PITT in this matchup.


                        I'd like to learn your take on these two matchups:

                        I like MINN + 3.5 . . . again, for value. Two teams
                        whose recent spread performance couplings appear to be going in opposite directions point to a value number and IMO
                        there's no sufficient reason to pass on the points.

                        And I'm leaning to HOU -2.5 . . . here, because I don't like BUF in this situation. Following their bye, they outperformed the PS vs GB, then had the tight road game vs IND and now
                        continue on the road while HOU's home after 3 road games,
                        all pumped and believing in themselves after beating JAX.
                        Comment
                        • austintx05
                          SBR MVP
                          • 08-24-06
                          • 3156

                          #13
                          1. I would lean Minnesota as well, but the line is accurate. Based on the history of this Miami team, Saban seems to go on a run in the latter half. I can see an argument for Minnesota, but I can also see a 7 point win for Miami.

                          2. I actually like Buffalo in this matchup. I do not have a strong enough feeling ot bet this game, but Buffalo has the advantage with the run game and I like how they have been playing defensively. But at the end of the day you are betting on 2 bad teams who are not consistent.

                          In regards to the Pitt game...One method to the way I pick games in the NFL is quite simply to go the other way. I have just learned that you will win over the course of a seaosn if you do this. More so this year as there seems to be more parity in the league as opposed to last year. SI is showing 81% of the bets are coming in on Pitt and that would not make me feel comfortable with a Pitt team who really hasn't proven that they can stop anyone defensively. Lets call them what they are. Pittsburgh was a 2-6 team that won a shootout at home. Cleveland has been clicking on offense as they went into Atlanta and won. I will be hoping for a +4 with Cleveland as I think it will be tighter than most perceive.
                          Comment
                          • Siuman
                            SBR Hustler
                            • 09-05-06
                            • 68

                            #14
                            Originally posted by austintx05
                            I am not concentrating solely on NFL as I have called it a season in NCAA. I just want to briefly run through some games and get a discussion going on amongst the board.

                            Oakland +9.5 vs KC - While Oakland is viewed as the most pathetic excuse for a football team, their defense ha snot played poorly other than a groin shot to Jeremy Stevens . I believe this is a low scoring game as the total suggests. Herm is still one of the most conservative coaches next to Marty and I do not see a blowout here. Green will make his first start and a quick "rusty turnover" could make it an uphill climb for KC.

                            Indy vs Dallas +1 - Colts will be playin their 3rd road game in 4 weeks vs a team who has a very balanced offense. While I know there are strong feelings as to why the Colts will win by most bettors, I see Dallas with a great opportunity to win here. It is going to require holding Manning under 300 yards and Jones/Barber to combine for 160-175 yards rushing.

                            Cincy vs NO -3.5 - I think this line should be closer to 5. Brees has proven he is one of the better QB's in the league and I just see these two teams going in different directions. NO is on the verge of making the playoffs and and Cincy has provwen that while thier offense "looks" to be back on track, that they have yet to be able to hold a lead. Not so sure it gets any easier in the Superdome.

                            Pittsburgh vs Cleveland +3.5 - Cleveland looks to have some confidence growing. As many points as Pitt has put up in recent games, I see these as a dog fight. Troy P has been cleared after a concussion for this weeks game, but I still have to wonder how he will hold up. Droughns is said to be out and I need to find out his status, but in what should be a defensive game I lean to the Browns. Will Ben go back to throwing INT's or resemble his performance from last week?

                            Tenn vs Philly -13 - I always try to spot one of those blowout games. As crazy as the NFL gets there always seems to be 1 game that pans out how it is "supposed" to. I think the line is this high for a reason. Philly had an impressive win vs a better defensive team in Washington, so I see this line about right in Lincoln. Rumor has it that Andy Reid will be doing less of the playcalling as he wants to see more of a balanced attack.

                            Atlanta +4 vs Baltimore - Ray Lewis is out and I actually like Atlanta in this spot. They look like world beaters vs great teams and they look like a JV squad vs teams like Detroit. Baltimore has won their last two games by a minimal margin.

                            Seattle vs SF +4 - 49ers play well at home and even though Alexander is expected to play Holmgren said he will not play the entire game. I actually expected this gameplan from Mike as he might be a bit more conservative considering the matchup here. I really don't like laying points with Seneca Wallace.

                            New England vs GB +5.5 - Pats off 2 losses.....hmmm....I actually want to play the Pack in this spot. Green has been running well lately and in doing so it has taken pressure off of Favre which has limited his INT's.

                            I love most of these picks....Cleve is 88-38-2 ATS as home underdogs....the 3.5 spead on the NO game scares me, well I should say the .5 pt scares me.....and something tells me Tenn/Phil game is going to be decided by less than 13.....otherwise I am with you on the others...gl
                            Comment
                            • dave11486
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 02-25-06
                              • 999

                              #15
                              Cleveland is a great play bud.
                              Comment
                              • nosuzieno
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 09-18-06
                                • 593

                                #16
                                Oak vs. KC is apparently now Rodgers vs. Green. I'm leaning under~ GL
                                Comment
                                • AC1318
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 10-09-06
                                  • 6712

                                  #17
                                  2 TOTALS


                                  under atl bal 41
                                  under chi nyj 38
                                  Comment
                                  • Siuman
                                    SBR Hustler
                                    • 09-05-06
                                    • 68

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by nosuzieno
                                    Oak vs. KC is apparently now Rodgers vs. Green. I'm leaning under~ GL
                                    I am watching ESPN and they said Brooks is starting QB
                                    Comment
                                    • McBa1n
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-02-06
                                      • 2642

                                      #19
                                      With Brooks DEFINITLY starting (it seemed likely all week) - yeah - under looks awesome.
                                      Comment
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