Houston +9 at Denver MNF - this line is a true mind-penetrate

[sportsfan9698]

Both teams are 4-2 in the NFL. We can all agree Denver is the better team and at home so they should be favored. But I maintain we have never seen such a huge line for teams that are both competitive.

By any traditional measures, the pointspread should be anywhere from -3 to -6 in 99.9% of circumstances... here is where this game gets very strange...

This game opened at Denver -6 and has been traded up to -9 (maybe -8.5 now but that is a small difference). As most of you seasoned punters know, in Football it is a big deal to move off the 6 mark to 7 - and another huge move to get off the 7 mark to anywhere north of 7. This line has crossed at least two crucial numbers in the past few days.

Why? There is no explanation. I have seen this type of odds before, and many of you have as well. You hold your nose and lay the points. There is no reason the line should be this high, but it is and you have to bet the side that makes no sense.

I do think this number will come down as kickoff approaches... possibly as low as -7.5

[sportsfan9698]

And now I noticed many books have now come back down to -7.5

Some crazy swings here... I doubt it gets lower to -7 but time will tell

[kj8210]

This smells like a back door setup...Broncos up 14 with 5min to go and Houston scores a TD...

[sportsfan9698]

This smells like a back door setup...Broncos up 14 with 5min to go and Houston scores a TD...

You could say that about ANY game with a line north of -7... does that mean you never lay chalk?

Denver is a to-3 defense, so the backdoor is far less likely, but always possible.

[sportsfan9698]

The more I think about it... it is fairly likely that Denver could just roll building a big lead that leaves no doubt about 7.5 spread. Houston coughes up 30 points to "decent" offenses

[sportsfan9698]

Pundits are starting to talk about KC or OAK or even SD as being the team to beat in the AFC West.

If you are on the defense of Denver... what do you think about that? You have a SB ring from a few months ago. I think they are going to go off tonight on a national stage. I just may bet a prop of Denver defense scoring.

[Roscoe_Word]

Some big money came in on HOU to knock the line back down. (+7.5).

That scares me being on DEN at (-7).

Hou has 2 road games of losses (by 27 and 18), covering neither.

Den is still DEN at home, and I really can't explain the line drop except to say that "somebody with deep pockets knows something I don't"

??....The notorious Brain Trust

[sportsfan9698]

Deep pockets lose just as often as little guys. You will go crazy trying to chase "smart money" or sharps or whatever you want to call it. The line drop does not concern me at all. The blowup from an open of 6 is far more interesting

[kj8210]

Line drop is probably people who bet -6 and are now looking for a middle at +9

At least thats the smart thing to do

[RavensFan2k3]

I think if you liked Houston you should have got it at +9. I think Houston loses by 7 or 8

[Roscoe_Word]

Definitely interesting. IMO the move upward is justified, but the reverse puzzles me. The RLMs do lose a lot and are many times unjustified.

Agree that chasing the sharps can be bad for one's mental health; but I don't like it when the sharps go against me.

Did you notice SD's RLM yesterday. Despite getting not much public support, a ton came in on them late and knocked the line all the way down to +4.5.

GL in tonite's game. NBA looming

[Roscoe_Word]

Line drop is probably people who bet -6 and are now looking for a middle at +9

At least thats the smart thing to do

[sportsfan9698]

I think if you liked Houston you should have got it at +9. I think Houston loses by 7 or 8

Seriously some of you guys are so deep in the internet folklore of this... YES the line opened at -6 because we can see that. It moved up to 6.5 then -7 within 35 minutes. And books that do offer early wagering on an opening number severely limit the max bets. So a handful of guys maxed out on $500 wagers at -6 or -6.5 and you think it was those guys that now bet it down for a middle?

LOL okay

[meader99]

Denver defense gonna piss all over Brock and make him wish he never left.

[sportsfan9698]

Denver defense gonna piss all over Brock and make him wish he never left.

I think he has millions of reasons to never regret leaving... but I agree with your point.

I don't remember the numbers exactly, but I seem to recall that Denver made him a VERY GOOD offer to sign, and he left for like 20% more. That makes no sense at all to me. Money is important, but other things factor in too...

Live in Denver or Houston? hmmm tough one
Play for an excellent franchise or play for a struggling franchise? not so tough
Get your ass beat each week or have a real OL to protect you?

He made a horrible decision, one that will likely lower his NFL value dramatically in the long run, if he can remain healthy to play in the long run

[The Hat]

Why? There is no explanation. I have seen this type of odds before, and many of you have as well. You hold your nose and lay the points. There is no reason the line should be this high, but it is and you have to bet the side that makes no sense.

Well, the reason the line is this high is because NOBODY would be on Houston if the line was lower than 7.

This is no rarity. We have seen lines this high in playoff and SB games.

[The Hat]

Both teams are 4-2 in the NFL. We can all agree Denver is the better team and at home so they should be favored. But I maintain we have never seen such a huge line for teams that are both competitive.

By any traditional measures, the pointspread should be anywhere from -3 to -6 in 99.9% of circumstances... here is where this game gets very strange...

This game opened at Denver -6 and has been traded up to -9 (maybe -8.5 now but that is a small difference). As most of you seasoned punters know, in Football it is a big deal to move off the 6 mark to 7 - and another huge move to get off the 7 mark to anywhere north of 7. This line has crossed at least two crucial numbers in the past few days.

Why? There is no explanation. I have seen this type of odds before, and many of you have as well. You hold your nose and lay the points. There is no reason the line should be this high, but it is and you have to bet the side that makes no sense.

I do think this number will come down as kickoff approaches... possibly as low as -7.5

With all due respect, nothing strange about the opening line nor the line increase.

Have you seen Houston play or 'only aware of their record'?

Houston beat a bad Bears team.
....beat a decent Chiefs team.
blown out against a good Pats team.
beat a bad Titans team.
blown out against a good Vikes team.
squeaked by against a bad Colts team.

I don't really consider Houston 'very' competitive. They play decent or less against bad teams and like crap against good teams and like crap in prime time games.

With the way the money generated the line increase, 'Vegas' was definitely smart to open at 6.

[Time is Money]

With all due respect, nothing strange about the opening line nor the line increase.

Have you seen Houston play or 'only aware of their record'?

Houston beat a bad Bears team.
....beat a decent Chiefs team.
blown out against a good Pats team.
beat a bad Titans team.
blown out against a good Vikes team.
squeaked by against a bad Colts team.

I don't really consider Houston 'very' competitive. They play decent or less against bad teams and like crap against good teams and like crap in prime time games.

With the way the money generated the line increase, 'Vegas' was definitely smart to open at 6.

That Pats team that was fielded wasn't even good

that was a team lead by jacoby brissett. they played at home the following week against bills and got shutout. that was a decent at absolute best pats team.

this houston team is dreadful. Denver is going to roll.

[Git Lo]

the line says denver d is about to get in that azz

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

Took 6 point teaser
Denver -3 even
Over 34.5 -110
50 pays 41.70

[JTrain]

Got +101 for Houston +8 so I had to take it.

[MalikHusam]

public 50/50 account 80/20 in favor of Denver
sharps like the favorite

[RavensFan2k3]

Seriously some of you guys are so deep in the internet folklore of this... YES the line opened at -6 because we can see that. It moved up to 6.5 then -7 within 35 minutes. And books that do offer early wagering on an opening number severely limit the max bets. So a handful of guys maxed out on $500 wagers at -6 or -6.5 and you think it was those guys that now bet it down for a middle?

LOL okay

what does this have to do with my post? Lol

[JTrain]

Boy Brock Osweiler really is just a tall guy.

[stackz125]

So when does Houston start Brandon Weeden because Osweiller can't throw a football????

[sportsfan9698]

winner winner chicken dinner