How can anyone bet the Patriots this weekend?

[ZINISTER]

Officiating is a much BIGGER issue in the game then the line. Looking in all the wrong places for your wager. It is never going to be in the obvious. Live learn and adapt.

[meader99]

Stop worrying about what the line is/should be and start asking yourself one simple question......who wins the game?

[Martinr]

I'm on Denver +3 but 4 words are starting to haunt me...
You Can't Eat Value.
Normally I'd say that over 1000 games I'd be on the right side at +3, and that I'd come out ahead, especially getting it at +100, but in a one-off Championship game I'm not sure that the value play is the right play.
Put it this way.. I agree with whoever said this should be a small play only.
All week Vegas has been spouting that they are going to be needing Denver and Arizona to cover. I'm hearing and reading it everywhere, and a bit too much for my liking.

[POOLSIDE]

This whole -3 and+9 is just plain retarded. Look at home/away games in divisions. Is the line like what you are saying ever? NO it's not.

I know that reading isn't your strong point, but at least you're not making racist rants for once so I'll respond as politely as I see fit.

First off it's not -3 and +9. That would be a gigantic switch haha. You must have missed this when I posted it earlier, so I'll paste it again. It's a list of examples which show that, yes in fact, the line is exactly like what I'm saying it should be in home/away games. Here is is again.

Denver -4 @ Chargers
Denver -10 vs Chargers

Pats pk @ Buffalo
Pats -7 vs Buffalo

Packers -10 vs Lions
Packers -3 @ Lions

Seahawks -3.5 @ Rams
Seahawks -10.5 vs Rams

Bengals -13 vs Browns
Bengals -7.5 @ Browns

[Barnes & Whine]

First off, this is what scares me about betting the Broncos. People who are looking at what they think the Pats should be favored by. Vegas knows every stat every trend, every injury and weather conditions as well. EVERYTHING is factored into the line, INCLUDING public perception. YOUR perception of what the line should be!! If there are too many people who actually think that the Patriots should be favored LESS than a field goal in Denver then if gives me a reason to think the play is the Patriots because those people perceive a lot of value on a home team with a so called "Great" defense against the greatest quarterback of all time possibly. Patriots game plan like no other team maybe ever, and the NFL and its scumbag refs are going to have this game obviously fixed against the Patriots in order to stop them, but they might not even then! Tom and Belichick beats these little field goal point spreads just for the fun of it to prove a point and I could see him doing it a again just to make all of you number crunching dorks look like fools! DRIVE FOR FIVE!!!

[The Resurrection]

Vegas also don't want to move the line as it would increase their exposure to sharps even more.

[JayDr3am]

A three point road edge doesn't translate to a nine point home edge because a team leading by more than eight points late in the game is more likely to allow its lead to shrink than is a team leading by eight or fewer points; that is, with the longer favorite, the back door cover comes into play, and a potential back door cover represents betting value.

that's not why it doesn't correlate to a nine point home edge.. theres a number of reasons but heres one. THE MARKET! they would have to make both lines MARKETABLE in order to maintain somewhat of a balance.. if both lines aren't marketable than one side gets pounded like a street whore.. and no book necessarily wants that.. and with that being said.. it actually correlates to the line being -5 or -7 NE home edge. not -9 that's just ridiculous and out there..

. if you would hypothetically switch NE with Arizona or Carolina or Greenbay facing Denver @ mile high.. they would NO DOUBT be 3pt underdogs... the reason Denver is a home dog is because they are facing tom fukking brady. hes played the entire season, no injuries, broke records in regular season, had an outstanding record.. threw for i dont know many damn touch downs.. didnt have gronk or Edelman for a while and STILL found out how to win vs peyton being injured and sat the bench 3/4 of the damn season being outshined by ozzy.. then came in still throwin ducks... this is literally the only scenario ever where Denver will be a home dog of 3pts. ever. ever. ever. ever.

[newbie64]

Those two quarterback play for home field advantage this year the Pats blew it it will be a hard fight to the end Denver win

[Suggartown]

I think this is the right thought. How can they lay -3.

[ZINISTER]

Pool, I was just trying to help you look at the capping a game in a different light. If I was wrong in my interpretation, I am so very sorry!! Point is the line is JUST a starting point. It is a number to start the process. What you do to come to a conclusion on your wager is your own personal choice. If you only look at the number in a -3 home field advantage perspective you are listening to what you have been told is the proper way. To think this is a "SET" number is not very good logic. Even though you are a total douche bag I wish you GL&Enjoy my very very good friend!

[Amadeo-Picks]

Missed the point completely. I don't want you to defend the pick. I already know why people picking the Patriots are picking the Patriots. I get it. I want you to defend the line. There's nothing about these two teams that says the Pats should be three point road favorites. Vegas knows this, that's why they keep juicing the -3 rather than moving off of it.

If u saw the games last week . This line is right where it should be. Forget about the run game the pats don't have . Brady can throw it 60 times and they can win with no problem. But it's not about the patriots so much . It's about how the Broncos looked last week. They can't score a touch down. VS a Steelers defense that was brutal this year specially on the road . And in the first game the pats were cruising till a drop punt return that brought life to them. W.e his name was that dropped the punt he was released the next day. Coaching wise ,,, no one is better than Belicheck . No one.

[Time is Money]

I love this question. It make no sense for NE to be road favorites at -3. I think all the value lies in Denver +3 and on the ML. Denver has been playing incredible defense. Everyone is so tripped up on how he passed so well last week against KC. KC was a weak team on an overrated winning streak. And they only lost to NE by one possesion. If they had managed the clock right, it couldve been an OT game and a different outcome. Denvers defense is elite. The best in the league in defensive effeciency. NE has absolutely no run game. So they are left with throwing the ball 40+ times. Denver will eat that up. Denver has no established a legit running game. Using the running game and manning short passes, Denver runs the clock out. All this talk about Tom Brady and edelman and gronk. They are useless if denver just continually keeps the NE defense on the field. The play is Den +3 in my opinion.

The Chiefs were never in that game, there was never a point where I felt there was even a 1 percent chance they had a shot. Pats went up 7-0 and never looked back.

[Time is Money]

The line doesn't make sense but will when Pats win on a late FG by Ghost. I get what you're saying but the better QB has won damn near every game this post-season and if Toussaint doesn't fumble the game away last week the game would be in Foxboro with Pats laying damn near double digits to the Steelers.

[Git Lo]

I think we should stop over thinking with the essay paragraphs and bet pats/Carolina -3

[arpeggiomeister]

First off, just to be clear. I am not proclaiming the Broncos a lock to cover the +3. Anything can happen, as we all know. Instead, this is a discussion about value. More specifically, about how there is less than no value on the Patriots as three point road favorites this weekend.

The Pats giving three on the road means that the Pats would be roughly nine point favorites if the game were in Foxboro. Read that again. If this were a home game, the line would be Patriots -9. This is real life?

I hope we can all agree that this is laughable. I also hope that we can all agree that this line would not actually be that high. I'm guessing it would be in the -3.5 to -5 range. This means the line this weekend should have the Broncos as a short home favorite of less than three points.

The Patriots were -5 over Kansas City last weekend. One, the Chiefs and their incredibly overrated win streak are not better than the Denver Broncos. Two, even if you're one of these guys who thinks the Chiefs are better than the Broncos, there's no fckking way you can tell me they're four points better than the Broncos.

Instead, what we obviously have here is the books knowing damn well that everyone and their mothers will pound the Pats at "basically a pickem". Every genius that ends up in Vegas for the weekend will unload on the Patriots while they make extremely insightful points about how Brady is amazing and has owned this rivalry and how Manning is done and should have retired. Granted, both of those things are at least somewhat true. They'll also forget to mention that Brady's worst venue to play is Mile High and that, if you even believe in this stuff, Brady hasn't had any sort of success against this referee crew.

Again, just to reiterate. I am not telling you I think the Broncos are a lock. All I'm saying is that before you place a bet on the road favorite who's already lost once this year in this building and who has the worse defense and worse run game, take a deep breath and decide if you really want money on a line that has unarguably been inflated due to public perception and that despite this fact, is still getting 80% of the action.

If you're on the Patriots, I'd love to hear you defend this line. Not the pick, but the line.

Very insightful post. I am a Pats fan and really want to pull the trigger on this one but I know I am bias. I think you are right, the value is on the Broncos. I just can't play that side as bad as Manning has looked lately. Probably best to sit this one out.

[loveofsports]

I'm considering Pats -6.5

Already easy lock on Pats -3

[Tommy Karate]

I should have added, I don't use the -3 home field advantage when cappin a game. I look at how the team plays on the road in divisional games and coast/coast games. I think some home field advantages are more and some less. Denver has one of the bigger ones.

fantastic avatar - one of the best ive ever seen.

as for the line, it definitely is inflated due to the books knowing that the action will come in on NE, but NE is at full strength outside of dion lewis, but james white is a similar player. they are not going to make the line PK, -1 when you have Manning under center vs Brady with weapons knowing then NE just needs to win.

anyone know what brady's lifetime record is in Mile High?

[JayDr3am]

fantastic avatar - one of the best ive ever seen.

as for the line, it definitely is inflated due to the books knowing that the action will come in on NE, but NE is at full strength outside of dion lewis, but james white is a similar player. they are not going to make the line PK, -1 when you have Manning under center vs Brady with weapons knowing then NE just needs to win.

anyone know what brady's lifetime record is in Mile High?

i don't know specific numbers but isn't just terrible?

[POOLSIDE]

If u saw the games last week . This line is right where it should be. Forget about the run game the pats don't have . Brady can throw it 60 times and they can win with no problem. But it's not about the patriots so much . It's about how the Broncos looked last week. They can't score a touch down. VS a Steelers defense that was brutal this year specially on the road

I think this is unintentionally the most telling post in this thread. This is exactly why the line is so high, because everyone "saw the games last week".

[capping40pct]

bodog giving 4 pts on denver while everybody else at 3, does this site mean anything?

[Renegades]

Bodog always shades to the dog, its a very square book

[JayDr3am]

somebody just got pounded in the books.. lines doin backflips

[Tommy Karate]

i don't know specific numbers but isn't just terrible?

Tom Brady has lost six career games in Denver (2-6 record including the postseason). The only visiting city that he's lost more games in is Miami (eight). His .250 winning percentage in Denver is his worst of any city in the NFL that he's played in more than once.3 days ago

[POOLSIDE]

Patriots backers now hoping for a push, which was the point of this thread in the first place.

Sure, a two touchdown miracle can still happen. But suffice it to say, everyone with money on the Pats -3 would cancel their bet right now if they could.

[pilebuck13]

Got +155 Broncos ml this morning worth it for me I like this spot here....think old wade dials up a terror and that cute little edelmen gets stopped with his quick dump pass runs Bol men

I heard yah poolside

[malyfsborin88]

Long time lurker but had to sign up just to say good call Pool.

[malyfsborin88]

Brady had no problem throwing with no edelman and amendola in the first game. This time they are going seal the deal. Broncos number one defense doesn't look scary at all.

How do you feel now watching the game almost over?

[ezmoney123]

i was on broncos moneyline and im feeling pretty damn good about it

[POOLSIDE]

Long time lurker but had to sign up just to say good call Pool.

Game definitely isn't over, but thanks and welcome!

[POOLSIDE]

Now it's over. Congrats to all the Denver backers. Now I root for Arizona.

[POOLSIDE]

I heard yah poolside

Good hit pile!

[BigdaddyQH]

Good call poolside. The Patsy backers have no bitch. The refs were fair, and if anything, gave the Patsies an edge. I came down to a blown PAT.

[Manny0825]

Good call. Glad me and you were on the same page. I know it hurts to be a pats backer right now.