Matt Stafford, O-Linemen top NFL draft board

[Chance Harper]

Matt Stafford, O-Linemen top NFL draft board

NFL fans starving for some action will get their fill this weekend with the 2009 draft. The event has grown in hype and glitter over the years, with Radio City Music Hall the site and ESPN beginning their coverage at 4:00 p.m. (ET) on Saturday. While the casual fans will be distracted by bells, whistles and Chris Berman's voice, handicappers will pay serious attention to the picks and their effect on futures.

It’s time to answer that age-old question: Do you draft based on need, or do you take the best player on the board?



That’s the dilemma 32 teams are facing as they prepare for the 2009 NFL Draft. The decisions they make will have a small effect on the Super Bowl betting odds, which shouldn’t see too much movement on the futures market this weekend. But the teams who draft best will enhance their betting value the most. That’s why handicappers and fans alike will be glued to their TV sets on Saturday (ESPN, 4:00 p.m. Eastern) for the first day of coverage.

The big story at last year’s draft was the emphasis on offensive tackles. This article by Robert Weintraub underlines the value provided by the O-line, which is gold for sharp handicappers – they might be the only people in the stadium who pay attention to these very important players. We’re expecting four blue-chippers to go in the top half of the first round.

Offensive Tackle
Jason Smith (Baylor)
Eugene Monroe (Virginia)
Andre Smith (Alabama)
Michael Oher (Mississippi)

Jason Smith and Monroe are both impeccable choices, and it appears one of them will go to the St. Louis Rams with the No. 2 pick. Smith would take over for oft-injured Orlando Pace at left tackle and provide the kind of blind-side protection QB Marc Bulger desperately needs. Monroe is considered to be even better than Smith at pass protection, but isn’t as strong or durable and could find himself in a Cincinnati Bengals uniform at No. 6.

The other two OTs have character issues. Andre Smith’s conduct at the beginning of the Scouting Combine probably cost him a bigger payday as the No. 2 pick, while Oher’s unusual background is the subject of this influential article by Michael Lewis. OTs are generally considered high-character players. But Smith and Oher aren’t being asked to broker peace talks in the Middle East. These are two outstanding run blockers who will make an immediate impact at the pro level and add value to the betting profile of their new employers.

Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, Georgia
Mark Sanchez, USC
Josh Freeman, Kansas State

On the other side of the draft coin, you have the marquee position in football. The Detroit Lions have needs just about everywhere on the field, but they’re reportedly going for the big one at No. 1 and are expected to sign Stafford to a deal before Saturday. Scouts Inc. has the Tampa native ranked seventh overall among all the prospects, behind both Jason Smith (No. 2) and Monroe (No. 5).

Conventional wisdom would have Detroit choose either of the two OTs and take care of the QB position later on, perhaps with the No. 20 overall pick (acquired from the Dallas Cowboys in the Roy Williams trade). That’s what the Miami Dolphins did last year at No. 1 with Jake Long and free agent Chad Pennington; we also saw the Cleveland Browns select Joe Thomas with the No. 3 pick before taking Brady Quinn at No. 22. Both Long and Thomas made it to the Pro Bowl in their rookie seasons, and both the Dolphins and Browns enjoyed bounce-back campaigns – handicappers are especially fond of Cleveland’s 10-6 (12-4 ATS) effort in 2007.

But conventional wisdom is what it is. According to Football Outsiders, offensive tackles are some of the riskiest picks a team can make in the first round – at least, judging by how many of them make the Pro Bowl after four years (14.1 percent, compared to 27 percent for quarterbacks taken from 1988 through 2005). FO is quick to add that it’s easier to get into the Pro Bowl as a QB; aside from replacement picks, three pivots from each conference get chosen compared to four tackles. The key for handicappers, again, is the perceived difference in value between these two positions as far as the betting public is concerned.

Sanchez is ranked a very close second to Stafford among quarterbacks and should add more betting value to his team the farther he drops in the draft order. Some mocks have him going No. 4 to the Seattle Seahawks; others see him falling to the Denver Broncos at No. 12. Freeman could be around for Detroit at No. 20. After that, it’s a long way down to Michigan State’s Brian Hoyer, ranked No. 134 overall in the draft.

[slacker00]

Lions don't need another Joey Harrington. Lions should shore up their line with one of those OTs, using the conventional strategy of the Browns & Dolphins noted above. Culpepper is good enough for now, not to mention Stanton is still waiting in the wings. Drafting a QB #1 overall is simply a mistake, the Lions are too far away to afford such a luxury. As a Packers fan, though, I hope they do draft Stafford, he flames out ala David Carr behind a sub par O-line and the Lions spend another decade in the toilet of the NFC North.

[bobby heenan]

this move really comes down to two things....the fact that the lions already have a serviceable left tackle in backus and drafted one last year at 17 with cherilus....and they dont want to commit that much guaranteed money to that position right now....its more justifiable to commit it to a potential franchise qb....

also i think too many people are looking at the success of ryan and flacco last year....and how tom dmitroff worked the draft last year for atlanta....grabbing ryan at 3 and then trading into the first again for sam baker at 21...well the lions do have the 20 and the 33.....the thing with ryan and flacco is ryan had a strong running game to lean on....and flacco had the running game and a defense to lean on....as much as i like matt ryan...he hardly set the world on fire....19tds-12 ints....you better make sure you can run the ball....although kevin smith does show potential....and megatron is already one of the top 5 wrs in the game

funny though...mike mayock...who for my money is the best draft anaylyst out there....said if he combined last years qb class and this years....his ranking would be ryan, sanchez, flacco, stafford, and freeman....mayock is the best out there in my opinion....he said last year that jerod mayo(selected by my pats) was the surest pick out there....so beware lions

[slacker00]

You are right, Detroit doesn't really need another OT. This article helped me forget they have quite a bit of depth on the O-line. But they do need all kinds of help on the defense. They're problem wasn't so much scoring points last season, it was stopping the opponent. Only once last year did the Lions give up less than 20 points, that's brutal for any offense to overcome not to mention they were going through QBs like Kleenex last season.

I still wonder about Drew Stanton, whose entering his 3rd year after being the 43rd overall pick a couple years back. He's battled some injuries and barely got onto the field. Shouldn't they be examining whether he might be a future QB? I know it's a new regime and all that, but I'd like an answer to the question of Drew Stanton.

Most importantly, the Lions will be picking in the top 10 again next year. So, they'll probably have another shot at a premium QB again. Unless they are really in love with Stafford, I don't see a reason to pull the trigger. At the #1 spot, I'd pick whoever I can sign. I wouldn't go through some fiasco like the Raiders & Jamarcus Russel a couple years back.