Who does and does NOT have anything to play for

[freestyle raw]

Is Seattle locked in?

Washington can't move.....

Arizona and carolina play same time

do those outcomes affect the seeding of the eventual north champ?

Throw it out there

[slacker00]

The NFL now moves games that affect one another to play at the same time. With modern technology, players will still know if one game becomes a blowout that affects their team and may adjust accordingly. The way to handicap this affect is with parlays.

For example: If Carolina blows out Tampa in the first half, Arizona may let down if they have no shot at the #1 seed anymore, so that parlay would be Carolina and Seattle together. On the flip side, parlay Arizona and TB+10' because if TB can even keep it close, AZ will fight to the end hoping for that TB upset. These are just the easiest examples, there are certainly other opportunities like this.

[slacker00]

So, here's the NFC situations team by team:

Carolina locks up the #1 seed with a win (or tie). IF CAR loses and AZ wins, Car drops to #2 seed.
Arizona can steal the #1 seed with a Carolina loss and Arizona win. Otherwise AZ is the #2 seed.
Packers need a win to get the #3 seed, otherwise they'll drop to the #5 seed.
Vikings need a win to get the #3 seed, otherwise they'll drop to the #6/#5 seed.
Seattle is the #6 seed, but can get to the #5 seed with a win and a Vikings loss.
Washington is locked into the #4 seed no matter what happens.

I'll maybe do the AFC situations later if I feel like it. Maybe someone else can flesh those out.

[goldust]

Just fade Miami - that team is hot garbage and NE has to wrap up the 1 seed.

[Jeep_Life 42]

Just fade Miami - that team is hot garbage and NE has to wrap up the 1 seed.

[arrgy]

So, here's the NFC situations team by team:

Carolina locks up the #1 seed with a win (or tie). IF CAR loses and AZ wins, Car drops to #2 seed.
Arizona can steal the #1 seed with a Carolina loss and Arizona win. Otherwise AZ is the #2 seed.
Packers need a win to get the #3 seed, otherwise they'll drop to the #5 seed.
Vikings need a win to get the #3 seed, otherwise they'll drop to the #6/#5 seed.
Seattle is the #6 seed, but can get to the #5 seed with a win and a Vikings loss.
Washington is locked into the #4 seed no matter what happens.

I'll maybe do the AFC situations later if I feel like it. Maybe someone else can flesh those out.

AFC is a mess. There are simply way too many permutations to think about seedings. God this is confusing.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Can't do worse than 2nd)

New England can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with:
1) NE win or tie
2) DEN loss or tie

CINCINNATI BENGALS (Can only be 2nd or 3rd)

Cincinnati can clinch a first-round bye with:
1) CIN win + DEN loss or tie
2) CIN tie + DEN loss
3) DEN loss + KC win

DENVER BRONCOS (Can be 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 5th)

Denver can clinch the AFC West division title with:
1) DEN win or tie
2) KC loss or tie

Denver can clinch a first-round bye with: (2nd)
1) DEN win
2) DEN tie + CIN loss or tie
3) KC loss or tie + CIN loss

Denver can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with: (1st)
1) DEN win + NE loss

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (currently the 5th seed, can go to the 3rd seed, can't be 1st or 2nd)

Kansas City can clinch the AFC West division title with:
1) KC win + DEN loss

NEW YORK JETS (currently the 6th seed, can be 5th seed, 6th seed or miss the playoffs)

N.Y. Jets can clinch a playoff berth with:
1) NYJ win or tie
2) PIT loss or tie

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (out of playoffs, can be the 6th seed)

Pittsburgh can clinch a playoff berth with:
1) PIT win + NYJ loss

HOUSTON TEXANS (can only be 4th seed in playoffs)

Houston can clinch the AFC South division title with:
1) HOU win or tie
2) IND loss or tie
3) HOU clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over IND OR clinches strength of schedule tiebreaker over IND
(Note: HOU clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over IND if one of the following teams wins or ties: NO, CIN, NYJ, SD, NE.
HOU clinches strength of schedule tiebreaker over IND if KC wins or ties and BAL wins or ties as long as both teams don't tie.
If Houston and Indianapolis end up tied in strength of victory and tied in strength of schedule, the teams would then go to the next tiebreaker, which is best combined ranking among AFC teams in points scored and points allowed in all games. Houston currently has a combined AFC ranking of 17 and Indianapolis is at 25.)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (can only make the 4th seed)

Indianapolis can clinch the AFC South division title with:
1) IND win + HOU loss + IND ties HOU in strength of victory tiebreaker and clinches strength of schedule tiebreaker over HOU
(Note: IND ties HOU in strength of victory tiebreaker and clinches strength of schedule tiebreaker over HOU if BOTH of the following occurs:
• a) all of the following teams win: BAL, ATL, BUF, DEN, MIA
• b) OAK win or tie + PIT win or tie as long as both teams don't tie.
If Houston and Indianapolis end up tied in strength of victory and tied in strength of schedule, the teams would then go to the next tiebreaker, which is best combined ranking among AFC teams in points scored and points allowed in all games. Houston currently has a combined AFC ranking of 17 and Indianapolis is at 25.)

Apparently the 5th seed is the screw up...


DEN clinches #5 with:
1. NYJ loss/tie


KC clinches #5 with:
1. KC win
2. KC tie + NYJ tie
3. NYJ loss


NYJ clinches #5 with:
1. NYJ win + KC loss/tie
2. NYJ win + KC win + DEN loss
3. NYJ tie + KC loss

[slacker00]

Great job arrgy! I didn't even glance at it, I knew the HOU/IND one was tricky. Sounds like Indy needs a mega-miracle.

[thetrinity]

does houston rest guys since they need basically an act of god to lose the division?

thats the big question, one of the most interesting week 17 scenarios i can remember

[slacker00]

does houston rest guys since they need basically an act of god to lose the division?

thats the big question, one of the most interesting week 17 scenarios i can remember

Good point. I bet Hoyer sees very little if any time if they want to give him some reps.

[arrgy]

Thanks.

Couple of points on the AFC.

First, all the teams are not a lock, for where they are now, each one of them can move to a different spot.

Second, none of the AFC teams in question, play each other. That is huge. They all play a team that is out of it. I don't think that has ever happened before. Which means for each team, if they want what they want, they have to win.

Third, owners ALWAYS want to host a playoff game, and sometimes they even write that into player's contracts via bonuses. That means more money for them, so I do not think any team is just going to lay down this week in the AFC. Story is different in the NFC, where Seattle and Washington really have nothing much to play for. GB/Min and KC/Den are the two big games that can switch seeds.

Fourth, if I were betting, I would seriously look at some of the first half bets. If Carolina is kicking the crap out of Tampa in the first half, you bet Cam is probably not going to play in the fourth quarter, etc. Nasty back door covers can happen.

[freestyle raw]

Thanks.

Couple of points on the AFC.

First, all the teams are not a lock, for where they are now, each one of them can move to a different spot.

Second, none of the AFC teams in question, play each other. That is huge. They all play a team that is out of it. I don't think that has ever happened before. Which means for each team, if they want what they want, they have to win.

Third, owners ALWAYS want to host a playoff game, and sometimes they even write that into player's contracts via bonuses. That means more money for them, so I do not think any team is just going to lay down this week in the AFC. Story is different in the NFC, where Seattle and Washington really have nothing much to play for. GB/Min and KC/Den are the two big games that can switch seeds.

Fourth, if I were betting, I would seriously look at some of the first half bets. If Carolina is kicking the crap out of Tampa in the first half, you bet Cam is probably not going to play in the fourth quarter, etc. Nasty back door covers can happen.

Wow.

Great info and effort guys. Thanks.

I have to pick five ats so half time bets don't help.

I think a lot of the value will be on teams playing trams that gave up like Tennessee Miami.

I also like Jacksonville.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Bump ...great thread and very useful today

[GunShard]

AFC is a mess. There are simply way too many permutations to think about seedings. God this is confusing.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Can't do worse than 2nd)

New England can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with:
1) NE win or tie
2) DEN loss or tie

CINCINNATI BENGALS (Can only be 2nd or 3rd)

Cincinnati can clinch a first-round bye with:
1) CIN win + DEN loss or tie
2) CIN tie + DEN loss
3) DEN loss + KC win

DENVER BRONCOS (Can be 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 5th)

Denver can clinch the AFC West division title with:
1) DEN win or tie
2) KC loss or tie

Denver can clinch a first-round bye with: (2nd)
1) DEN win
2) DEN tie + CIN loss or tie
3) KC loss or tie + CIN loss

Denver can clinch home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with: (1st)
1) DEN win + NE loss

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (currently the 5th seed, can go to the 3rd seed, can't be 1st or 2nd)

Kansas City can clinch the AFC West division title with:
1) KC win + DEN loss

NEW YORK JETS (currently the 6th seed, can be 5th seed, 6th seed or miss the playoffs)

N.Y. Jets can clinch a playoff berth with:
1) NYJ win or tie
2) PIT loss or tie

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (out of playoffs, can be the 6th seed)

Pittsburgh can clinch a playoff berth with:
1) PIT win + NYJ loss

HOUSTON TEXANS (can only be 4th seed in playoffs)

Houston can clinch the AFC South division title with:
1) HOU win or tie
2) IND loss or tie
3) HOU clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over IND OR clinches strength of schedule tiebreaker over IND
(Note: HOU clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over IND if one of the following teams wins or ties: NO, CIN, NYJ, SD, NE.
HOU clinches strength of schedule tiebreaker over IND if KC wins or ties and BAL wins or ties as long as both teams don't tie.
If Houston and Indianapolis end up tied in strength of victory and tied in strength of schedule, the teams would then go to the next tiebreaker, which is best combined ranking among AFC teams in points scored and points allowed in all games. Houston currently has a combined AFC ranking of 17 and Indianapolis is at 25.)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (can only make the 4th seed)

Indianapolis can clinch the AFC South division title with:
1) IND win + HOU loss + IND ties HOU in strength of victory tiebreaker and clinches strength of schedule tiebreaker over HOU
(Note: IND ties HOU in strength of victory tiebreaker and clinches strength of schedule tiebreaker over HOU if BOTH of the following occurs:
• a) all of the following teams win: BAL, ATL, BUF, DEN, MIA
• b) OAK win or tie + PIT win or tie as long as both teams don't tie.
If Houston and Indianapolis end up tied in strength of victory and tied in strength of schedule, the teams would then go to the next tiebreaker, which is best combined ranking among AFC teams in points scored and points allowed in all games. Houston currently has a combined AFC ranking of 17 and Indianapolis is at 25.)

Apparently the 5th seed is the screw up...


DEN clinches #5 with:
1. NYJ loss/tie


KC clinches #5 with:
1. KC win
2. KC tie + NYJ tie
3. NYJ loss


NYJ clinches #5 with:
1. NYJ win + KC loss/tie
2. NYJ win + KC win + DEN loss
3. NYJ tie + KC loss

[slacker00]

Bump ...great thread and very useful today

yup.

[johnnyvegas13]

carefull with this thinking

all players have there jobs to play for

[jhack704]

Good point. I bet Hoyer sees very little if any time if they want to give him some reps.

yup jax easy cover 7 points is a lot! lock of the day for sure

[GunShard]

I barely won my Jaguars Under 5.5 wins.
Texans just needed to win the last week of the regular season and they did lol.