Week 4 - Chalk?

[POOLSIDE]

Weeks like this scare me. The games I like the most are all favorites. Seems incredibly square, but I can't talk myself off of these. I think they all cover. Opinions?

Colts
Cardinals
Broncos
Bengals
Falcons

I don't see where this card loses money. Even the Falcons, which made a three point jump after last week.

Indy - Luck 5-0 in his last five vs Jax with an average win margin of almost 24 points

Arizona - Still undervalued. I know this is a division game but I think Stl has issues

Broncos - Run defense strong enough to make Teddy beat them, which isn't happening

Bengals - Regular season games in Cincy have been auto bets the last few years

Falcons - Dangerous in the dome, plus Ryan Mallett is horrendous

[2daBank]

love the bungals more than the rest. i made that line 6.5-7 so def see value there. just isnt any way anyone can tell me cincy isnt 3 points better on a neutral and i tend it give them 3.5 to 4 for the HF considering as you mentioned they are beast at home in the reg season. kc secondary has been carved up thus far and cincy has arguably the best talent other than qb in the league.

i think ap will run on donks and that is in fact the way to attack that d imo. gun to my head id take the points with minny.

getting to the point where i get nervous bout backing a team like atl who i have backed all 3 gms thus far. books dont make a habit of letting the same teams continue to cover week after week. that said trufant will slow hopkins down and then what for hou? id keep a eye on foster, if he able to go there no way id lay the points and would prob consider hou, look what randle did to atl in the 1st half last week, run game is the key in this one i think. with foster hou will play them tough, w/o i think it a walk in the park. teasing atl prob a winner whether he plays or not..

zona basically same thing as in a team that continuing to cover, even worse they getting tons more love as a contender than atl currently is. no doubt lambs have issues as indicated by scoring 6 whole points on pit sorry d, that said it so hard to lay a td against fisher teams. i think i learned my lesson playing against zona last week but be really hard for me to lay this many so probably a pass for me..

hard to make much a case for jags considering last week, i just cant lay this kind of number and find it really hard to consider given how pathetically avg i think the colts are, over is prob the thing to look at here.

[WWCD]

Colts - Too many points for me, and Jags are due for an upset. Struggling Colts could be the weakest link here IMO.
Cardinals - ML 4 me. 2 good defenses facing each other. AZ should win and cover, but I'm not so sure the Rams are ready to roll over yet.
Broncos - I think they beat MIN handily.
Bengals - I think they beat KC handily.
Falcons - I don't trust them in this spot. I like the +7 here. Foster possibly returns?

[blackHIPPY]

i love houston +7 this week
falcons wins against the nfc east are not that impressive
houstons ground game came alive last week w o foster
dallas ran all over atl then forgot to run the 2nd half (granted dallas oline is better than hou)
this is the best defense atl has faced this season and first time ryan will face a real pass rush

[SharpAngles]

First weekend of the season that a tease seems valuable. Home favs roll week 4 and GB finally stops Kap to win by at least 3. Already booked 550 on Az -6.5 but I think that number is long gone. Sometimes eating chalk is the value play imo...

4 team teaser (B+6)

[NFL] SAN DIEGO -1½-110
[NFL] GREEN BAY -2-105
[NFL] DENVER -½-115
[NFL] ARIZONA -1-105

$500/$1325

[PUBABEAR1]

I think I'll play that..looks solid..too easy almost...I have a bad feeling Green Bay is gonna lose..nothing on paper says they should just a gut feeling..frisco looked bad on the road but better at home when they beat Minnesota. Didn't frisco always give Green Bay problems. I'm still playing it

[goldust]

I wouldn't put a cent on San Diego, even in a tease.

[mngambler]

Weeks like this scare me. The games I like the most are all favorites. Seems incredibly square, but I can't talk myself off of these. I think they all cover. Opinions?

Colts
Cardinals
Broncos
Bengals
Falcons

I don't see where this card loses money. Even the Falcons, which made a three point jump after last week.

Indy - Luck 5-0 in his last five vs Jax with an average win margin of almost 24 points

Arizona - Still undervalued. I know this is a division game but I think Stl has issues

Broncos - Run defense strong enough to make Teddy beat them, which isn't happening

Bengals - Regular season games in Cincy have been auto bets the last few years

Falcons - Dangerous in the dome, plus Ryan Mallett is horrendous

2 of these will lose straight up...book it

[JayDr3am]

colts worry me.. too many points & luck is playing hurt.

falcons are in trouble coming Houston. and I'm not just saying that cause its my hometown. its gonna be loud in here. they are gonna be allover julio and Devonta freeman like white on rice

[POOLSIDE]

colts worry me.. too many points & luck is playing hurt.

falcons are in trouble coming Houston. and I'm not just saying that cause its my hometown. its gonna be loud in here. they are gonna be allover julio and Devonta freeman like white on rice

I agree with this. The Falcons are gonna be in a whole lot of trouble coming to Houston, mainly because the football game is in Atlanta.

[SmittyZ28]

Weeks like this scare me. The games I like the most are all favorites. Seems incredibly square, but I can't talk myself off of these. I think they all cover. Opinions?

Colts
Cardinals
Broncos
Bengals
Falcons

I don't see where this card loses money. Even the Falcons, which made a three point jump after last week.

Indy - Luck 5-0 in his last five vs Jax with an average win margin of almost 24 points

Arizona - Still undervalued. I know this is a division game but I think Stl has issues

Broncos - Run defense strong enough to make Teddy beat them, which isn't happening

Bengals - Regular season games in Cincy have been auto bets the last few years

Falcons - Dangerous in the dome, plus Ryan Mallett is horrendous

Couldn't agree more, chalk is scary this week. Books have had enough losing.

That said;

Indy- Burned me too hard so far this season, my own fault, but I do not trust them. Considering the beat down the Pats put on this team I though the line would be 10+, JAX is not a good team but not as awful as they have been. Pats are just that good at home, considering the over here but the line will prob be a pass. Good tease option

Zona- I am with you here, this team is legit. Bank is right, hard to lay 7 against Fisher but Zona is the real deal, Palmer 16-2 in last 18 starts Fitz is looking un-stoppable in the slot and the D is playing well. I agree with nay sayers they haven't beaten anybody good yet, but they also haven't let anyone be even competitive. Palmer was a more than capable QB and he is showing it again

Broncos- Stack the box, don't let AP beat you, make Teddy B do it which means a Bronco victory. No issue laying the 7 here and maybe a tease. Broncos defense is the best its been in decades and peyton's offense has improved every week. Even if AP goes off, running backs don't win games. Minny wants to line up and run 5 yards a carry all day, let them it certainly isnt setting up a play action pass for this offense.

Bengals- Never bet against them at home in the regular season. KC is still a good team and I can see them giving the bengals trouble as the red rocket will get pressured and he will make mistakes. Might come down to a turnover, hoping to see the line drop to 3 before Sunday. Bengals at home has been an ATM machine for years

Falcons- Houston is so bad, just atrocious. Matty Ice in the dome is always a decent bet 6.5 a lot to swallow. Question for me here comes down to can Houston D contain that Kyle Shanahan offense?? There is no way Houston can score with this team if they don't. Tough call for me here, most likely leaving it alone if we can get +7 or 7.5 later in the week might be worth a stab.

I see no one talking about Buffalo -5 at home. Liking this bet more and more and the line is dropping. How Eli handles that defense I do not know and the Bills can score. Tough place to play, even with a strong showing of Giants fans.

GL buddy

[Jeff_Black]

Watched most of the games of the teams mentioned and I find it hard to back against them, even if you take into account playing a bit less then par, I dont really see it happening. The other teams are just atrocious.
Colts would maybe lay off them for a week but I imagine when everyone is off them is the week they win by a few touchdowns. Always seems to be the case.

The 49ers are still probably getting too much respect from their week 1 win as much as the Rams are. I think if they both lose again the books will adjust.

[sandyw123]

I would take the Chiefs +3.5 at the Bengals. The Chargers lost only by 5 at Cincinnati. Sure, the Chiefs lost at home to Denver, but they have bad luck vs Denver. They can't be faulted by losing at Green Bay. Who doesn't? The Chiefs have a decent enough offense and kept Denver in check until Manning's final drive. I can see the Chief's defense flustering Andy Dalton and maybe forcing a few turnovers. I'm also looking at the Giants +3.5 at Buffalo. It looks like Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy will both be out for Buffalo.

[2daBank]

I would take the Chiefs +3.5 at the Bengals. The Chargers lost only by 5 at Cincinnati. Sure, the Chiefs lost at home to Denver, but they have bad luck vs Denver. They can't be faulted by losing at Green Bay. Who doesn't? The Chiefs have a decent enough offense and kept Denver in check until Manning's final drive. I can see the Chief's defense flustering Andy Dalton and maybe forcing a few turnovers. I'm also looking at the Giants +3.5 at Buffalo. It looks like Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy will both be out for Buffalo.

kc secondary has been torched all season when they dont get pressure and cincy doing a great job keeping the ginger clean. the qb that getting tagged is alex smith and expect that to continue as teams jump the short shit and bring mass pressure not fearing getting beat deep. taking +3.5 is beyond insane imo when you consider how strong cincy has been at home since dalton arrived, there just no way you telling me these teams are equal on a neutral field? normally i look at cincy having advantages everywhere but qb, however in this game cincy actually better at qb as well. not even sure how that debatable but im willing to listen.

i dont think mccoy means jack shit to the bills honestly. i dont have much interest in this gm but i certainly wouldnt let shady not playing factor in when the backup is hungry and running strong. again no real lean for me either way, just saying i dont think shady is worth any points in the eyes of oddsmakers as i know he not in mine.

[JayDr3am]

damn I must've been stoned af could've sworn Texans were at home lmao I would definitely lay the 7 in that case. especially if foster is gone. fack.

[Cross44]

I think the NFL is top-heavy this year with the top 6-8 teams a cut above the rest. In the past, this meant it would be a good year for 2-3 team teaser plays.

Personally, I like teasing Broncos & Cardinals, as I don't see either of these teams having a let down at home. This week

As a Falcons fan, I wouldn't touch Falcons -7, especially since it looks like Foster is in. They've been losing every game this year in the second half, and suddenly they're laying a TD? You saw what Randle did to them last week, and I think foster can do the same thing with Watt and co. to back him up to maintain time of possession and keep Jones off the field.

If Foster is back and I can get +7, I lean Texans.

[rockhardfister]

i love houston +7 this week
falcons wins against the nfc east are not that impressive
houstons ground game came alive last week w o foster
dallas ran all over atl then forgot to run the 2nd half (granted dallas oline is better than hou)
this is the best defense atl has faced this season and first time ryan will face a real pass rush

The whole "NFC East is weak" argument is garbage pal. They LOOK weak, because the Falcons came through their division and knocked their teeth out. If the Falcons lost all of their games, Dallas would be 3-0, Philly and the Giants would be 2-1 and everyone would be talking about how dominant the NFC East is.

[POOLSIDE]

As a Falcons fan, I wouldn't touch Falcons -7... They've been losing every game this year in the second half

As a Falcons fan? Please. Fans usually watch the games. I'm so sick of people spewing incorrect information as if it were a hard fact.

Rather than taking this upchuck at face value, here are the actual facts about the Falcons thus far:

Week 1 - Big lead at halftime, definitely a letdown second half.

Week 2 - Down 3 at the half, down 10 after three. They won the fourth quarter 14-0 for a comeback victory.

Week 3 - Down 14 in the first half, last second fg put them down 11 at halftime. Falcons close the game on a 25-0 run, winning the second half 22-0.

Cool, thanks for sharing.

[blackHIPPY]

The whole "NFC East is weak" argument is garbage pal. They LOOK weak, because the Falcons came through their division and knocked their teeth out. If the Falcons lost all of their games, Dallas would be 3-0, Philly and the Giants would be 2-1 and everyone would be talking about how dominant the NFC East is.

you gotta point there

[Cross44]

As a Falcons fan? Please. Fans usually watch the games. I'm so sick of people spewing incorrect information as if it were a hard fact.

Rather than taking this upchuck at face value, here are the actual facts about the Falcons thus far:

Week 1 - Big lead at halftime, definitely a letdown second half.

Week 2 - Down 3 at the half, down 10 after three. They won the fourth quarter 14-0 for a comeback victory.

Week 3 - Down 14 in the first half, last second fg put them down 11 at halftime. Falcons close the game on a 25-0 run, winning the second half 22-0.

Cool, thanks for sharing.

What are you even upset about? We're saying the same thing: at some point, the Falcons were losing each game in the second half.

[2daBank]

I think the NFL is top-heavy this year with the top 6-8 teams a cut above the rest. In the past, this meant it would be a good year for 2-3 team teaser plays.

Personally, I like teasing Broncos & Cardinals, as I don't see either of these teams having a let down at home. This week

As a Falcons fan, I wouldn't touch Falcons -7, especially since it looks like Foster is in. They've been losing every game this year in the second half, and suddenly they're laying a TD? You saw what Randle did to them last week, and I think foster can do the same thing with Watt and co. to back him up to maintain time of possession and keep Jones off the field.

If Foster is back and I can get +7, I lean Texans.

I agree if foster goes that too many points.

[eswerve4]

indy the only one in that with most likely chance at losing - luck and company playing on the downside.

[POOLSIDE]

What are you even upset about? We're saying the same thing: at some point, the Falcons were losing each game in the second half.

Hahahhaaha oh man, my fault. Completely misread what you were saying. Ha, I'm an idiot. I'm with you, I apologize. Yes, the Falcons were unarguably losing every game in the second half. This is not up for debate. I'm off to my remedial reading class lolololol whoops.

[blackHIPPY]

Hahahhaaha oh man, my fault. Completely misread what you were saying. Ha, I'm an idiot. I'm with you, I apologize. Yes, the Falcons were unarguably losing every game in the second half. This is not up for debate. I'm off to my remedial reading class lolololol whoops.

I was confused too

[POOLSIDE]

I was confused too

No more posting until after I've eaten ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[JayDr3am]

First weekend of the season that a tease seems valuable. Home favs roll week 4 and GB finally stops Kap to win by at least 3. Already booked 550 on Az -6.5 but I think that number is long gone. Sometimes eating chalk is the value play imo...

4 team teaser (B+6)

[NFL] SAN DIEGO -1½-110
[NFL] GREEN BAY -2-105
[NFL] DENVER -½-115
[NFL] ARIZONA -1-105

$500/$1325

I never tease but I literally just heard great news about the Denver/Arizona 2 team teaser. GL with your action!

[Cross44]

No more posting until after I've eaten ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

All good man. Gotta keep the forum in check!

In terms of eating Chalk, I got a 3 team tease on Colts, Seahawks, GB (before I found out Luck was questionable... should've waited)
I got a 2 team tease on Denver and Arizona like a few other posters.

The rest of my plays will be all dogs. Vegas can't go any deeper into the red right? With all the square betters doubling down from the past two weeks, I think most of the line value is on the dogs this week.

[rockhardfister]

I think the NFL is top-heavy this year with the top 6-8 teams a cut above the rest. In the past, this meant it would be a good year for 2-3 team teaser plays.

Personally, I like teasing Broncos & Cardinals, as I don't see either of these teams having a let down at home. This week

As a Falcons fan, I wouldn't touch Falcons -7, especially since it looks like Foster is in. They've been losing every game this year in the second half, and suddenly they're laying a TD? You saw what Randle did to them last week, and I think foster can do the same thing with Watt and co. to back him up to maintain time of possession and keep Jones off the field.

If Foster is back and I can get +7, I lean Texans.

I hate it when the Falcons lay big chalk at home. Historically they let down, sometimes lose. The one thing about this game though is the fact that Ryan Mallet just isnt that good and Atlanta's secondary is very opportunistic so far. Falcons get Brooks Reed back at WLB and Devon Hestor on ST...

[POOLSIDE]

See, this is why I usually don't make bets on Tuesday. I'm glad I didn't in this case. I've now talked myself off of the Broncos, something about that game doesn't feel right. I'm also holding off on Indy, but that's strictly due to Luck's injury. I might jump back on this one, but not until Sunday morning.

Still feeling good about Atlanta, Arizona, and Cincy.

Arizona beat the Rams twice last year with Drew Stanton doing the heavy lifting. This Rams team has trouble scoring against the Arizona defense. I don't expect that to change.

Cincy, well Banker covered that pretty thoroughly a few posts back. Again, Cincy at home is +$ in the long term. Even if this doesn't hit, I can live with the pick.

Atlanta feels great to me. I'm just not seeing the Texans being competitive here. Not with Mallett, and especially not with a slightly injured Mallett. That team cannot keep up with Atlanta if they put any points on the board. 17 points could be enough for Atlanta to cover here. I feel like the Falcons haven't gotten much credit for the 3-0 start, people might not be taking them seriously. I expect them to put the league on notice this weekend.

[JayDr3am]

Denver & Atlanta have a lot in common..
1. start of the season playing from behind, still winning! but a little shaky.
2. being dogs in beginning week games and winning the battle.. alright congrats.

but NOW they both are at home 7 point favs.. I feel like that's a serious test for peyton and matt ryan. somethin super fishy about those 2 games. its all about if you have the balls to fade the public on games like these. real shit, 1 out 2 of these will hit (Minnesota +7 or Houston +7). stand by my statement firmly.

[POOLSIDE]

I think it's Minnesota. I'm looking back at Denver and seeing a team who was two plays away from being 0-2, which includes literally having the Chiefs game given to them. Like, actually physically handed to them. The Detroit win wasn't particularly convincing either.

Atlanta on on the other hand? They've played three teams that I think are better than Houston.

I feel better about Atlanta covering than I do about Minnesota covering, if that makes any sense.

[JayDr3am]

I think it's Minnesota. I'm looking back at Denver and seeing a team who was two plays away from being 0-2, which includes literally having the Chiefs game given to them. Like, actually physically handed to them. The Detroit win wasn't particularly convincing either.

Atlanta on on the other hand? They've played three teams that I think are better than Houston.

I feel eel better about Atlanta covering than I do about Minnesota covering, if that makes any sense.

yeah makes sense you should feel that way cause the falcons game looks like a easy cover. Houston hasn't done anything impressive to really sway anyone. I don't even know if arian foster is enough. but we'll see

[2daBank]

I think it's Minnesota. I'm looking back at Denver and seeing a team who was two plays away from being 0-2, which includes literally having the Chiefs game given to them. Like, actually physically handed to them. The Detroit win wasn't particularly convincing either.

Atlanta on on the other hand? They've played three teams that I think are better than Houston.

I feel better about Atlanta covering than I do about Minnesota covering, if that makes any sense.

i dont like either honestly,. while i def like atl chances better playing a weaker team and imo sporting a better offense than donks(actually think donks could easily lose where i dont see that happening to atl) i dont think hou is a great matchup for them. best dline and run game that atl will have faced to date imo, you could make the case dal run gm better for sure but they inexplicably went away from it after dominating in the 1st half last week, no matter who playing rb for hou i dont think they will make the same mistake. falcons oline playing better but i think a lot is scheme and playcalling, when push comes to shove facing a very talented defensive front i worry they wont hold up as well.

[2daBank]

Denver & Atlanta have a lot in common..
1. start of the season playing from behind, still winning! but a little shaky.
2. being dogs in beginning week games and winning the battle.. alright congrats.

but NOW they both are at home 7 point favs.. I feel like that's a serious test for peyton and matt ryan. somethin super fishy about those 2 games. its all about if you have the balls to fade the public on games like these. real shit, 1 out 2 of these will hit (Minnesota +7 or Houston +7). stand by my statement firmly.

i like the points in both. with minny a little more cause i actually like them as a team where i dont exactly trust hou.

[POOLSIDE]

The bet on Atlanta basically says the Texans can't make Mallett beat them. I haven't seen anything from that kid that I like. Maybe he'll shock me this weekend, fair enough. But I'm thoroughly unimpressed.