Picks Using Play By Play Analysis - 2015 Season Long Thread

POOLSIDE · 09-23-15, 05:01 PM

I'm confused. I haven't eaten today so if I'm missing something simple, please forgive me.

However, am I reading this correctly? You've got Washington and SF as the highest overall rated teams?

Also, what do the numbers in bold mean?

ComputerMan · 09-24-15, 11:19 AM

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
NYG	200	110	90	7	-1.16
WAS	214	104	110	-6	0.75
Advantage	WAS - 14	NYG - 6	WAS - 20	NYG - 13	WAS - 1.91

Thursday Night Football
What The Play By Play Numbers Say:

Who Will Win The Overall Line Of Scrimmage Battle?....Washington
Which Team Will Run and Stop the run more effectively?...Slight edge - NY Giants
Which Team Will Pass and Stop the pass more effectively?...Washington
Which Team Will Have More Big Plays (Runs >= 10, Passes >= 20) and Stop Big Plays?..Big Edge - NY Giants
Which Team Will Be Most Effective Scoring In The Red Zone and Stopping Scoring In The Red Zone?...Washington

So overall this game is a tough one to call. The game seems likely to be in control by the Redskins. But since the Giants appear likely to have more big plays, this could counter act that.

The Redskins are traveling, and off a short week so this should hamper their ratings, and the Giants are a desperate (0-2) so we can expect their best effort.

I only like to play underdogs where there is good probability they have advantages in key areas. Washington does here, but other factors (travel, short week, desperate opponent) could influence this game, so I am passing tonight.

I do think the numbers reflect a fairly low scoring game providing the Giants don’t hit too many big plays.

ComputerMan · 10-01-15, 11:36 AM

Hey Guys,

(1-3) last week, with the Bills being our only winner. Jags didn’t run the ball as effectively as the Play By Play numbers would have indicated and were destroyed. And the 49ers got off to a God awful start thanks
to atrocious QB play by Mr. Kaepernick.

And as for the Chiefs, their decimated secondary was the key, injuries are making data analysis extremely tough as teams are up and down based on if starters or backups
are playing.

In hindsight, I should not have even tried to give out analysis after only two weeks!....But I couldn’t help myself.

Now that we have three weeks of data, I have created my own Power Rankings for each of the teams (See below).

I have done my own big data analysis using my trusty laptop, of what statistics are the most important in deciding who wins, and most times, also covers the spread.
Be keying in on these stats and combining them into ONE Power Rank stat, below is a chart of how well each team is doing in these key statistics.

As you can see, the Power rating has a nice correlation to a team’s WINS/LOSSES. There are however some “surprises” which may mean some teams might be Over/Under rated at the present time.

Potentially Underrated Teams:
Tennessee (1-2)
Seattle (1-2)
St. Louis (1-2)
Baltimore (0-3)

Potentially Overrated Teams:
Carolina(3-0)
Atlanta(3-0)
Minnesota(2-1)
Oakland(2-1)

Since the public doesn’t have access to these kind of numbers, we may be able to take advantage of them as they are likely to be looking at a team’s overall record when deciding on who to bet.

NOTE: These numbers also take into account the strength of schedule, but does not, unfortunately, adjust for injuries. (So Pittsburgh w/o Big Ben and Dallas without Dez and Romo are over valued)

Remember, below is NOT your traditional Power ranking of who the BEST team is (The formula doesn’t use Points For/Points Against!), all it is showing is how well a team is performing the critical stats that determines Wins/Losses and Covers for an NFL game based on my research.
A Power Rating of around 81 is considered AVEARGE (a probable .500 ball club). In theory, the higher my Power Rank value, the better the team’s record should be. I will calculate this each week and we can see how it does.

Play By Play POWER RANK	TEAM	Power	WINS	LOSSES
1	ARZ	100.57	3	0
2	BUF	95.5	2	1
3	DAL	93.2	2	1
4	GB	88.45	3	0
5	NE	88.43	3	0
6	DEN	88.33	3	0
7	TEN	88.25	1	2
8	PIT	86.33	2	1
9	CIN	84.38	3	0
10	SEA	83.64	1	2
11	STL	82.82	1	2
12	NYJ	82.73	2	1
13	SD	82.3	1	2
14	BAL	81.66	0	3
15	CAR	80.82	3	0
16	PHI	80.5	1	2
17	NYG	80.38	1	2
18	WAS	80.34	1	2
19	NO	78.43	0	3
20	OAK	78.37	2	1
21	JAX	77.81	1	2
22	KC	77.79	1	2
23	ATL	77.34	3	0
24	MIA	77.23	1	2
25	CLE	76.49	1	2
26	IND	76.36	1	2
27	DET	76.22	0	3
28	SF	76.04	1	2
29	MIN	74.09	2	1
30	HOU	69.65	1	2
31	CHI	68.5	0	3
32	TB	68.34	1	2

Thursday Night Play By Play Analysis: Ravens At Steelers

Team	Power Rating	Power Rating Difference	Spread	Spread Value
BAL	81.66
PIT	86.33	+4.7	+3	7.7***
Spread favors PIT +3

The Spread Value is calculated as follows:
1. If the Favorite has a bigger Power Rating than the Underdog (usually the case) then use the (Power Rating Difference / the spread).
2. If the Underdog has a bigger Power Rating than the Favorite, then use the Power Rating Difference PLUS the spread.

** Vegas has said Ben is worth 5 points to this line, so our spread value of 7.7 should be reduced by 5 (so should be 2.7), so the number is high enough to make this a very slight lean to Pittsburgh.

KnownUnknown · 10-01-15, 12:58 PM

Does your system account for Baltimore desperation? Baltimore has to make a game of this opportunity. If they lose this one- they really will be quite dispirited. I see interesting systems like yours and it seems to me that they usually underestimate situational variables that can have a big impact on game outcome. Situational capping is a real challenge/ art that has to be accounted for properly. BOL with your play.

ComputerMan · 10-01-15, 06:22 PM

You are so right about situational handicapping. Like the Packers this week, off the MNF and traveling across the country laying a huge number. Perfect let down spot for the public to fall for...

I do try to look out for bad situational spots, but in my humble opinion, because this is such a huge rivalry game, I think Baltimore "needing" it more might not be as relevant.

ComputerMan · 10-02-15, 07:28 PM

Week 4 Play By Play Picks.....

The Numbers Explained:
Power Rating	How well a team is at the most crucial aspects of winning an NFL game (As determined by my own big data research)
Spread Value	Reflects how much value we see in backing the FAVORITE versus the vegas line, after comparing our Power Rating differential. Currently I have set a 3.0 or more threshold for betting the Favorite, and any negative value we back the underdog.
Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicts what percent of the plays in the passing game will be successful (based on down and distance)
Predicted Big Play Success Rate	Predicts what percent of the plays will go for runs > 10 and passes > 19
Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play	Predicts how many points per red zone play the team will obtain.
Differentials	How much better the favorite is than the underdog (negative values favor the underdog)

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
BAL	81.66	-6.94	57.33	12.99	1.81
3.0
PIT	86.34		56.33	14.03	1.85
Differentials	-4.68		1.00	-1.04	-0.04
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: PIT	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
NYJ	82.73	3.81	47.83	11.40	1.79
1.5
MIA	77.24		47.83	15.16	0.27
Differentials	5.50		0.00	-3.76	1.52
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: NYJ	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
ATL	77.34	1.21	56.17	24.54	1.48
6.5
HOU	69.66		51.00	16.14	2.36
Differentials	7.69		5.17	8.40	-0.88
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: ATL	Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
OAK	78.37	3.14	59.33	23.17	2.07
3.0
CHI	68.50		46.00	22.59	0.71
Differentials	9.87		13.33	0.58	1.36
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: OAK	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
CIN	84.39	1.68	55.50	20.88	2.11
4.0
KC	77.79		49.50	17.50	3.40
Differentials	6.59		6.00	3.38	-1.29
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: CIN	Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
IND	76.37	-9.92	57.67	17.15	2.64
9.0
JAX	77.82		49.67	18.78	1.90
Differentials	-1.45		8.00	-1.63	0.75
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: JAX	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
BUF	95.50	2.84	60.17	18.11	1.95
5.5
NYG	80.38		57.83	18.04	1.24
Differentials	15.12		2.33	0.07	0.71
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: BUF	Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
PHI	80.51	0.14	47.67	21.81	0.96
3.0
WAS	80.35		50.83	14.55	1.25
Differentials	0.16		-3.17	7.26	-0.29
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: WAS	Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
CAR	80.82	4.34	57.00	23.81	2.35
3.0
TB	68.34		54.50	18.59	0.92
Differentials	12.48		2.50	5.21	1.44
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: CAR	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
SD	82.30	0.80	50.33	15.37	3.34
7.5
CLE	76.50		46.83	19.70	2.30
Differentials	5.81		3.50	-4.33	1.04
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: CLE	Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
DEN	88.34	2.04	55.50	10.26	2.30
6.5
MIN	74.10		44.17	11.10	1.42
Differentials	14.24		11.33	-0.85	0.88
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: DEN	Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
GB	88.46	1.46	55.00	23.43	3.05
8.5
SF	76.05		41.67	19.63	1.08
Differentials	12.41		13.33	3.80	1.97
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: GB	Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
ARZ	100.58	2.60	60.50	22.24	1.74
7.0
STL	82.83		53.00	19.13	0.50
Differentials	17.75		7.50	3.11	1.23
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: ARZ	Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
NO	78.43	-19.00	63.00	10.10	2.19
4.5
DAL	93.21		60.00	28.55	3.60
Differentials	-14.77		3.00	-18.45	-1.41
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: DAL	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
SEA	83.65	0.74	52.33	21.36	1.39
10.0
DET	76.23		51.67	13.45	1.68
Differentials	7.42		0.67	7.91	-0.29
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: DET	Worth A Bet?

ComputerMan · 10-03-15, 08:58 AM

*******************
Week 4 Plays Are Thus:
*******************

DAL +4.5

JAX +9.5

CAR -3

NYJ -1.5

OAK -3

Situationally, Oakland traveling west to east for another 1:00 hurts, Jets in England (who knows the effect), Dallas without key starters, so I would use some caution!

Best of luck to all!

ComputerMan · 10-04-15, 06:02 PM

*******************
Week 4 Plays Are Thus:
*******************

DAL +4.5 As brutal a beat as they come.

JAX +9.5

CAR -3

NYJ -1.5

OAK -3

ComputerMan · 10-05-15, 05:04 PM

Monday Night: Detroit @ SEATTLE

Based on the Play By Play numbers, the line looks to be right at 10, so not worth a play. The lean would be to the Lions.

Best of luck.

ComputerMan · 10-09-15, 05:30 PM

Week 5 Play By Play Analysis Picks....

Hi guys,

***********
Week 4 Recap:
***********
(3-2) – Top Plays
(9-5-1) overall

We had some nice easy winners on the Jets,Carolina and Jacksonville, A close loss on the Raiders, and of course losing a heartbreaker on the Cowboys in OT, one of the worst beats I have ever had.

Doinking the chipshot field goal, then giving up the TD in over time.

Losing our best defensive player for the second half as well as losing Dunbar and our fastest wide receiver didn’t help either…. Ok, enough bitching, happens to us all.

On to week 5…..

We have the following underdogs, that according to my play by play statistics are rated better from a line of scrimmage perspective than the favorite, so they stand a good chance of competing well in the game:

New Orleans +5 over PHILADELPHIA
TENNESSEE +2.5 over Buffalo
Seattle +3 over CINCY
Jacksonville +3 over TAMPA BAY
Washington +7.5 over ATLANTA
San Francisco +7 over NY GIANTS

In addition to this analysis, the sides that look promising from looking at which teams are performing the best in areas that most determine winning/losing:

New Orleans +5 over PHILADELPHIA
Chicago +9.5 over KANSAS CITY
Seattle +3 over CINCY
Jacksonville +3 over TAMPA BAY
Washington +7.5 over ATLANTA
Arizona -2.5 over DETROIT
Indianapolis +5 over HOUSTON

Arizona -2.5 looks to be the sucker play off the week. This line is begging you to take Arizona, and based on my numbers there is no reason for this line to be so low unless Vegas is setting a trap.
I have Arizona as having the most overall dominate line (offensive and defensive combined) and Detroit’s line(s) simply do not match up at all here. I smell a trap!...

And New This Week: QBR System (Quarterback Rating)

How It Works:
I have created software that analyzes each passing play in a game, I then create my own QBR rating for both offense and defense. I take the offensive QBR and subtract the defensive QBR to get a NET QBR Rating for each team.
We then can compare who we think will have the better QB performance in the game. Below are the UNDERDOGS that the system sees as potentially having the better overall QB day.

****************
Week 5 QBR Plays:
****************
New Orleans + 5 over PHILADELPHIA
TENNESSEE +2.5 over Buffalo
Chicago +9.5 over KANSAS CITY
Seattle +3 over CINCINNATI
Washington +7.5 over ATLANTA

From all the above analysis our TOP PLAYS this week are:
1. New Orleans +5 over PHILADELPHIA
2. Seattle +3 over CINCINNATI
3. Washington +7.5 over ATLANTA
4. Jacksonville +3 over TAMPA BAY
5. Chicago +9.5 over KANSAS CITY

The highlighted in green are the strongest plays based on the fact that all three of our areas of analysis (see above) agree this is the right side.

Best of luck to all!

LittleLarryY · 10-09-15, 05:44 PM

I don't need to be begged to take Arizona at -2.5.

I think your system is very interesting. It's not quite as simple as I am used to but that may not be a bad thing. Is there anything in your analysis that accounts for time of possession, turnovers, or field goals? Or are those things built into your team statistics?

Good luck!

ComputerMan · 10-10-15, 10:31 AM

Week 5 Play By Play Analysis.... You want stats/analysis?..... My stats are all autogenerated from software I have written.

This analysis is from evaluating the results of each NFL game on a play by play level. I download every play into a database then I run a computer program that analyzes what happened on the play. I create ratings for both offense and defense for the following:

Running
Passing
Overall (Running and Passing combined)

Big Plays
Red Zone
I then adjust all the statistics based on the quality of the opponent.
What you see below are the fruits of my labor. I hope that by looking deep within the game, we may be able to uncover some good analysis for wagering.
Overall - This is how well a team effectively controlls the line of scrimmage from BOTH an offensive and defensive perspective
Run - This is how well a team effectively controlls the line of scrimmage from BOTH an offensive and defensive perspective for runs only
Pass - This is how well a team effectively controlls the line of scrimmage from BOTH an offensive and defensive perspective for pass only
Big Play - This is how well a team effectively creates big plays (10+ running 20+ passing) on offense AND stops big plays on defense
RedZone - This is how EFFICIENT the team is in the red zone on offense AND how adept they are in the red zone on defense.

With only two weeks of data, we don't know much, in theory we should get better as the year goes on.

Play By Play Analysis For Week 4

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
HOU	196	102	94	-12	-0.14
IND	195	98	97	-6	-0.60
Advantage	HOU - 1	HOU - 4	IND - 3	IND - 6	HOU - 0.46

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
BAL	198	98	100	4	-1.20
CLE	195	95	100	-6	-1.32
Advantage	BAL - 3	BAL - 3	CLE - 0	BAL - 10	BAL - 0.12

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
GB	208	98	110	-1	1.13
STL	196	99	97	4	0.05
Advantage	GB - 12	STL - 1	GB - 13	STL - 5	GB - 1.08

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
PHI	183	88	95	3	0.73
NO	209	102	107	-10	-0.78
Advantage	NO - 26	NO - 14	NO - 12	PHI - 13	PHI - 1.52

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
BUF	202	96	106	9	0.85
TEN	206	98	108	5	0.03
Advantage	TEN - 4	TEN - 2	TEN - 2	BUF - 4	BUF - 0.82

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
KC	200	107	93	-1	-0.76
CHI	188	95	93	0	-1.70
Advantage	KC - 12	KC - 12	CHI - 0	CHI - 1	KC - 0.94

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
CIN	202	102	100	11	-1.25
SEA	210	108	102	9	-0.35
Advantage	SEA - 8	SEA - 6	SEA - 2	CIN - 2	SEA - 0.90

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
TB	190	94	96	-4	-0.83
JAX	199	111	88	11	-0.18
Advantage	JAX - 9	JAX - 17	TB - 8	JAX - 15	JAX - 0.64

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
ATL	204	105	99	-3	-0.27
WAS	207	103	104	-8	-0.01
Advantage	WAS - 3	ATL - 2	WAS - 5	ATL - 5	WAS - 0.26

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
ARZ	212	103	109	11	2.54
DET	190	96	94	-7	0.96
Advantage	ARZ - 22	ARZ - 7	ARZ - 15	ARZ - 18	ARZ - 1.58

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
DEN	207	102	105	-1	1.14
OAK	204	104	100	-10	1.27
Advantage	DEN - 3	OAK - 2	DEN - 5	DEN - 9	OAK - 0.13

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
NE	200	87	113	-7	0.21
DAL	208	102	106	5	0.51
Advantage	DAL - 8	DAL - 15	NE - 7	DAL - 12	DAL - 0.30

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
NYG	197	101	96	3	-0.27
SF	200	107	93	-2	-1.51
Advantage	SF - 3	SF - 6	NYG - 3	NYG - 5	NYG - 1.23

Team	Overall	Run	Pass	Big Play	Red Zone
SD	197	96	101	0	0.92
PIT	188	91	97	4	0.84
Advantage	SD - 9	SD - 5	SD - 4	PIT - 4	SD - 0.08

Quality Of Opponents:
ARZ

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-1.25	0.25	-9.75	1.06699385706	-2.75	0.5	-2.75	-4.10145355834

Quality Of Opponents:
ATL

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
0.5	-6.25	-8.25	-3.5017700731	-2.25	4.5	-10.25	3.83339220024

Quality Of Opponents:
BAL

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
2	-0.5	1.75	-1.24901747356	-0.5	1.5	-0.75	2.35255675866

Quality Of Opponents:
BUF

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
0.25	-0.25	3	-1.47323817624	-0.75	-3.25	-15	-1.84063641122

Quality Of Opponents:
CAR

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-3.25	0	0.5	-2.0071131942	0.5	2.25	-0.25	-1.65095082008

Quality Of Opponents:
CHI

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
4	5.5	9.75	3.1508403511	4	-1.25	9.5	-0.835004800442

Quality Of Opponents:
CIN

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
0	3.5	12.5	-1.20352338213	-1	-1	-8.5	-0.774933799346

Quality Of Opponents:
CLE

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
1.75	1.75	8.5	-0.0632648842977	3.75	-1.75	9	-2.04431402703

Quality Of Opponents:
DAL

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
2.25	-5.75	1.25	-2.64243302985	-3.5	5	-10.5	1.05440160643

Quality Of Opponents:
DEN

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-3	0	-6.25	-2.92063080228	-2.25	-1.25	-10	1.27021863019

Quality Of Opponents:
DET

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-0.75	1.5	1	-1.85474050798	3	0.25	16.75	3.65234202421

Quality Of Opponents:
GB

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-3.5	6.25	-2.25	2.93314992971	-2	-0.75	2.75	-1.99284315394

Quality Of Opponents:
HOU

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-1.75	0.5	3.75	1.78941304119	-3	2.25	-4.5	-2.54295599425

Quality Of Opponents:
IND

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-1.25	3	1.75	3.79829866273	4.5	-1.25	11.75	2.04155583576

Quality Of Opponents:
JAX

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-1.5	0.5	2.75	-0.478293495612	0.25	-4	-6.5	-2.47722863624

Quality Of Opponents:
KC

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
1.25	-0.25	0.75	-1.36922270694	3.75	0.5	5.5	0.74107309251

Quality Of Opponents:
MIA

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-0.75	1.75	-3.5	1.22585378447	3.5	1.75	13	0.972075569473

Quality Of Opponents:
MIN

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-2	-0.25	-11	-4.56380562045	1	1.5	-0.25	1.77940347686

Quality Of Opponents:
NE

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-2	2.33333333333	1	3.12109553878	-0.666666666667	-0.666666666667	0.333333333333	5.71009574734

Quality Of Opponents:
NO

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
1.75	-0.25	5	3.85060541956	0.5	0.75	6.25	0.779505525658

Quality Of Opponents:
NYG

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
6	0.5	14.5	0.874175576818	-0.5	4	3.75	0.347999959045

Quality Of Opponents:
NYJ

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-4.75	-2.5	-15.75	-1.69960542338	-0.5	-2	-7.25	-0.427322144855

Quality Of Opponents:
OAK

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-0.5	1.5	5	1.25256173067	-2	-4.75	-6	1.03312495743

Quality Of Opponents:
PHI

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
5	-2.5	7.5	-1.20842346941	1.25	6	14.25	-1.33516774454

Quality Of Opponents:
PIT

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
0.5	0.5	1.25	-0.360982843185	0.25	-2.5	-9.5	-0.979966807318

Quality Of Opponents:
SD

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-0.75	-1.25	-6.5	-2.62955752945	-3	-2.25	-16.25	1.88374973673

Quality Of Opponents:
SEA

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
0.5	-1.75	-14.75	0.711199831433	-2	-2.25	-5.75	-2.40416315749

Quality Of Opponents:
SF

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
1.75	0.25	0.25	2.46130547436	2.75	-3.5	12.5	1.15401767965

Quality Of Opponents:
STL

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
3	1.75	14.5	4.36508499364	2	1.5	22	0.0143020025685

Quality Of Opponents:
TB

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-1	-0.75	8.5	-0.335097170508	2	1	7.25	-2.53963247981

Quality Of Opponents:
TEN

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-4	-0.333333333333	-10.6666666667	-1.65390768937	1	-3.66666666667	-5.33333333333	-3.71955473708

Quality Of Opponents:
WAS

PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay	PassWinPct	RunWinPct	Rating	BigPlay
-2.25	-5	-19.5	0.98084624281	-4	2	-14.25	1.54394872178

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
HOU	48.75	43.125	116.125	16.8414686307	9.56251136633	7.62060915549	1.95881957765
IND	50.125	41.25	114.625	19.3792074539	10.6529717966	8.79074824072	1.72822456455
Advantage UNDERDOG	1.375			2.53773882324	1.09046043023	1.17013908524
Totals			230.75	36.2206760846	20.2154831629	16.4113573962	3.68704414219

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
BAL	48.75	47.625	114.125	19.0821779101	9.9047574807	9.07005288804	2.19583186814
CLE	48.5	46.25	113.125	14.1588405459	7.48571225081	6.65558332441	2.13819935576
Advantage UNDERDOG
Totals			227.25	33.2410184559	17.3904697315	15.7256362124	4.3340312239

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
GB	56.125	43.125	112.875	20.8825052298	13.503993462	7.97552335239	2.02635711726
STL	49.375	43.625	110	23.3877123631	15.6014963736	7.63329533373	1.48669732408
Advantage UNDERDOG		0.5		2.50520713333	2.09750291152
Totals			222.875	44.2702175929	29.1054898356	15.6088186861	3.51305444134

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
PHI	48.875	36.875	102.25	20.6748997553	11.7968797602	9.25706197844	2.3783370527
NO	55.125	43.5	136.5	13.9008909838	5.50034478047	8.39005786175	1.6207043109
Advantage UNDERDOG	6.25	6.625	34.25
Totals			238.75	34.5757907391	17.2972245407	17.6471198402	3.9990413636

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
BUF	50.2083333333	49.6666666667	109	23.6228681465	11.9676028692	11.7314948203	2.10301903535
TEN	51.2916666667	50.25	122.958333333	21.5316669284	10.6207988645	11.0837670144	1.69311410158
Advantage UNDERDOG	1.08333333333	0.583333333333	13.9583333333
Totals			231.958333333	45.1545350748	22.5884017337	22.8152618347	3.79613313693

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
KC	52.875	49.875	115	23.5655625698	13.7796885557	9.90282736349	2.18961015245
CHI	53.125	43.875	121.5	24.3374252681	12.970315212	11.2499062117	1.71759933609
Advantage UNDERDOG	0.25		6.5	0.77186269835		1.34707884823
Totals			236.5	47.9029878379	26.7500037677	21.1527335752	3.90720948854

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
CIN	53.75	46.125	122.125	20.6455753809	6.51775030912	14.4300970594	1.84001676504
SEA	54.875	49	127.375	19.8100391602	11.4819110623	8.38737992219	2.28991408237
Advantage UNDERDOG	1.125	2.875	5.25		4.96416075319		0.449897317328
Totals			249.5	40.4556145411	17.9996613714	22.8174769816	4.1299308474

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
TB	51.5	41	111.625	14.7280437643	6.67357630205	8.26702658516	1.64038552112
JAX	47.375	49.375	99.125	22.053949389	12.4647661325	9.69827790849	1.96278155776
Advantage UNDERDOG		8.375		7.32590562465	5.79118983046	1.43125132333	0.322396036646
Totals			210.75	36.7819931533	19.1383424346	17.9653044936	3.60316707888

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
ATL	53.375	42.625	118.125	21.9712175532	11.9405322045	9.78342406593	1.79390899596
WAS	55.625	41.625	118.625	19.4790625404	12.1592780178	7.15850071002	1.9237099208
Advantage UNDERDOG	2.25		0.5		0.218745813245		0.12980092484
Totals			236.75	41.4502800936	24.0998102223	16.9419247759	3.71761891675

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
ARZ	58	45.375	141.375	24.4180827492	11.7399939762	12.8513326794	1.98948953067
DET	50.125	41.625	107.625	15.2617750768	8.06314820561	7.03504476473	1.19831846721
Advantage UNDERDOG
Totals			249	39.679857826	19.8031421818	19.8863774441	3.18780799788

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
DEN	51.125	40.375	111	17.6040538003	9.78897931388	7.85494691043	1.87178882197
OAK	48.375	41.75	99.375	13.1274598807	6.23979002915	6.77367016599	1.93767685174
Advantage UNDERDOG		1.375					0.0658880297679
Totals			210.375	30.731513681	16.028769343	14.6286170764	3.80946567371

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
NE	57.6666666667	42.7916666667	138.666666667	15.3112892313	8.7821137207	6.23445689126	1.93416514216
DAL	54.125	50.0416666667	125.75	21.4318968613	11.8446470823	9.85055537901	2.08379849899
Advantage UNDERDOG		7.25		6.12060763002	3.06253336156	3.61609848776	0.149633356826
Totals			264.416666667	36.7431860926	20.6267608029	16.0850122703	4.01796364114

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
NYG	51.375	42.5	113.75	17.7140695687	7.33723476772	10.6374986441	1.7233078806
SF	49.75	45.25	110.625	15.2222116714	9.67351501765	5.39332498207	1.10631061032
Advantage UNDERDOG		2.75			2.33628024992
Totals			224.375	32.93628124	17.0107497854	16.0308236262	2.82961849092

Team	Predicted PassWinPct	Predicted RunWinPct	Predicted Rating	Predicted BigPlayPct	Predicted BigPlayRunPct	Predicted BigPlayPassPct	Predicted RZPtsPerPlay
SD	53.875	46	110.125	17.4086093655	11.0602065689	6.13246507387	2.87672762604
PIT	51.875	43.75	115.375	19.565663825	11.5526753732	7.91378487049	2.83703250442
Advantage UNDERDOG			5.25	2.15705445955	0.492468804267	1.78131979662
Totals			225.5	36.9742731905	22.6128819421	14.0462499444	5.71376013045

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
HOU	70.408714	-4.83910369873	-1	4.83910369873	5.83910369873
IND	75.24782	4.83910369873	+1.0	4.83910369873
Spread Favors: IND with a rating of: 5.84

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
BAL	83.691666	6.43326568604	-6.5	-0.989733182467	0.940810004106
CLE	77.2584	-6.43326568604	+6.5	-0.989733182467
Spread Favors: CLE with a rating of: 0.94

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
GB	91.13914	9.14306640625	-9	-1.01589626736	0.971035510699
STL	81.99607	-9.14306640625	+9.0	-1.01589626736
Spread Favors: GB with a rating of: 0.97

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
PHI	80.50065	-0.605918884277	-4.5	0.134648640951	5.10591888428
NO	81.10657	0.605918884277	+4.5	0.134648640951
Spread Favors: NO with a rating of: 5.11

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
BUF	92.79728	1.55258178711	-2.5	-0.621032714844	0.631923941612
TEN	91.2447	-1.55258178711	+2.5	-0.621032714844
Spread Favors: TEN with a rating of: 0.63

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
KC	74.45389	-0.392211914062	-9	0.0435791015625	9.39221191406
CHI	74.8461	0.392211914062	+9.0	0.0435791015625
Spread Favors: CHI with a rating of: 9.39

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
CIN	86.93663	-1.74214935303	-3	0.580716451009	4.74214935303
SEA	88.67878	1.74214935303	+3.0	0.580716451009
Spread Favors: SEA with a rating of: 4.74

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
TB	76.192116	-2.67088317871	-3	0.890294392904	5.67088317871
JAX	78.863	2.67088317871	+3.0	0.890294392904
Spread Favors: JAX with a rating of: 5.67

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
ATL	79.57087	-0.959014892578	-7.5	0.127868652344	8.45901489258
WAS	80.529884	0.959014892578	+7.5	0.127868652344
Spread Favors: WAS with a rating of: 8.46

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
ARZ	98.64984	25.4849090576	-2.5	-10.193963623	9.87293685913
DET	73.16493	-25.4849090576	+2.5	-10.193963623
Spread Favors: ARZ with a rating of: 9.87

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
DEN	86.53522	9.7501373291	-4.5	-2.16669718424	2.08182754119
OAK	76.78508	-9.7501373291	+4.5	-2.16669718424
Spread Favors: DEN with a rating of: 2.08

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
NE	88.68977	-1.8356628418	-8.5	0.215960334329	10.3356628418
DAL	90.52544	1.8356628418	+8.5	0.215960334329
Spread Favors: DAL with a rating of: 10.34

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
NYG	80.83283	6.8892288208	-7	-0.984175545829	0.956284926278
SF	73.9436	-6.8892288208	+7.0	-0.984175545829
Spread Favors: SF with a rating of: 0.96

Team	Rating	Rate Difference	Spread	Spread Value	Pick Rating
SD	83.838196	0.770927429199	-3	-0.256975809733	0.319796747565
PIT	83.06727	-0.770927429199	+3.0	-0.256975809733
Spread Favors: PIT with a rating of: 0.32

The Numbers Explained:
Power Rating	How well a team is at the most crucial aspects of winning an NFL game (As determined by my own big data research)
Spread Value	Reflects how much value we see in backing the FAVORITE versus the vegas line, after comparing our Power Rating differential. Currently I have set a 3.0 or more threshold for betting the Favorite, and any negative value we back the underdog.
Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicts what percent of the plays in the passing game will be successful (based on down and distance)
Predicted Big Play Success Rate	Predicts what percent of the plays will go for runs > 10 and passes > 19
Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play	Predicts how many points per red zone play the team will obtain.
Differentials	How much better the favorite is than the underdog (negative values favor the underdog)

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
HOU	70.41	-5.60	48.75	16.84	1.96
1.0
IND	75.25		50.13	19.38	1.73
Differentials	-4.84		-1.38	-2.54	0.23
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: IND	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
BAL	83.69	0.94	48.75	19.08	2.20
6.5
CLE	77.26		48.50	14.16	2.14
Differentials	6.43		0.25	4.92	0.06
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: CLE	Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
GB	91.14	0.97	56.13	20.88	2.03
9.0
STL	82.00		49.38	23.39	1.49
Differentials	9.14		6.75	-2.51	0.54
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: GB	Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
PHI	80.50	-5.02	48.88	20.67	2.38
4.5
NO	81.11		55.13	13.90	1.62
Differentials	-0.61		-6.25	6.77	0.76
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: NO	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
BUF	92.80	0.63	50.21	23.62	2.10
2.5
TEN	91.24		51.29	21.53	1.69
Differentials	1.55		-1.08	2.09	0.41
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: TEN	Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
KC	74.45	9.3	52.88	23.57	2.19
9.0
CHI	74.85		53.13	24.34	1.72
Differentials	-0.39		-0.25	-0.77	0.47
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: CHI	Worth A Bet?	YES

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
CIN	86.94	-4.34	53.75	20.65	1.84
3.0
SEA	88.68		54.88	19.81	2.29
Differentials	-1.74		-1.13	0.84	-0.45
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: SEA	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
TB	76.19	-6.08	51.50	14.73	1.64
3.0
JAX	78.86		47.38	22.05	1.96
Differentials	-2.67		4.13	-7.33	-0.32
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: JAX	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
ATL	79.57	-8.86	53.38	21.97	1.79
7.5
WAS	80.53		55.63	19.48	1.92
Differentials	-0.96		-2.25	2.49	-0.13
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: WAS	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
ARZ	98.65	9.87	58.00	24.42	1.99
2.5
DET	73.16		50.13	15.26	1.20
Differentials	25.48		7.88	9.16	0.79
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: ARZ	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
DEN	86.54	2.08	51.13	17.60	1.87
4.5
OAK	76.79		48.38	13.13	1.94
Differentials	9.75		2.75	4.48	-0.07
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: DEN	Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
NE	88.69	-10.26	57.67	15.31	1.93
8.5
DAL	90.53		54.13	21.43	2.08
Differentials	-1.84		3.54	-6.12	-0.15
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: DAL	Worth A Bet?	Yes!

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
NYG	80.83	0.96	51.38	17.71	1.72
7.0
SF	73.94		49.75	15.22	1.11
Differentials	6.89		1.63	2.49	0.62
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: SF	Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
SD	83.84	0.32	53.88	17.41	2.88
3.0
PIT	83.07		51.88	19.57	2.84
Differentials	0.77		2.00	-2.16	0.04
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: PIT	Worth A Bet?

ComputerMan · 10-12-15, 06:27 PM

So far so good with the Play By Play Analysis (Picking Every Game)
(9-5-1) - Week 4
(9-3-1) - Week 5
(18-8-2)...

The line when I ran the stats was SD -3, so at 3.5 we see a VERY slight lean to the Steelers.

Matchup	Power Rating	Spread Value	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
SD	83.84	0.82	53.88	17.41	2.88
3.5
PIT	83.07		51.88	19.57	2.84
Differentials	0.77		2.00	-2.16	0.04
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: PIT	Worth A Bet?

Best of luck!

nspa87 · 10-12-15, 06:36 PM

Looks promising overall!

When will you run week 6? Not being pushy just curious.

ComputerMan · 10-12-15, 07:31 PM

The system is entirely run automatically, I do nothing but make sure my laptop is turned on. It is scheduled to load all the play by play data from every game on Tuesday morning into my PlayByPlay database. On Wednesday I have another computer program I wrote that loads the NFL spreads for the current week. After that I have another computer program that actually does all the analaysis and spits out what you see here each week. I am still looking at all the output and am trying to see what gives us the best results so bear with me

ComputerMan · 10-15-15, 12:19 PM

Hi Everyone,

From this point on, we will track the following Play By Play Systems to see which one(s) perform the best. All this is new, so I am trying to see what works
best for us, please bear with me. I am hoping the Combination Picks are what we ultimately use, but only time will tell.

Systems Week 5 RECAP:

System Name	Week 5	YTD	System Description
Play By Play (Worth A Bet?)	(4-3-1)	(7-5-1)	Highest Rated Play By Play Picks, Teams performing best at the most Important stats for winning NFL games.
Play By Play (All Games)	(10-2-1)	(19-7-2)	Play By Play Picks For All Games, Teams performing best at the most Important stats for winning NFL games.
Play By Play QBR Underdog	(3-1-1)	(3-1-1)	Underdogs with predicted as good or better QB performance As the Favorite
Play By Play Line Of Scrimmage Underdog	(3-2-1)	(3-2-1)	Underdogs Who Will Compete Well In The Trenches
Combination Picks	(2-2-1)	(2-2-1)	Picks from all three Play By Play Systems Agree

Overall, a nice week for the Play By Play System that looks at how well a team is in the most important stats for winning an NFL game. (10-2-1) overall,
and now (19-7-1) last two weeks.

*********************
Play By Play QBR Underdog
*********************
We went (3-1-1) in our new Play By Play Underdog QBR System, Washington and Chicago proved great value getting all those points.
The system correctly predicted 4 out of 5 underdogs that wound up having as good or better yards per pass attempt. New Orlean’s Drew Brees not
being 100% healthy may have had some affect, not to mention unfortunately, Philly played their best game of the year.

Here Was Our Underdog QB Rating Suggestions and the results:

New Orleans
Yards: 292/333
YPP: 6.0/7.0
Result: LOSS

Tennessee
Yards: 179/82
YPP: 5.1/3.7
Result: WON (+2.5)

Chicago
Yards: 241/170
YPP: 5.1/5.1
Result: WON (+9.5)

Seattle
Yards: 197/310
YPP: 7.0/6.3
Result: PUSH: PUSH (+3)

Washington
Yards: 219/242
YPP: 6.3/5.2
Result: WON (+7.5)

********************************
Play By Play Line Of Scrimmage Underdog
********************************
Our Underdog Line Of Scrimmage Analysis, had the following underdogs that looked to compete well in the trenches, and for the most part they all did a decent job with
two actually out gaining the favorite, and the bigger underdogs were definitely competitive. The PUSH on Seattle hurt, as they outgained CINCY pretty nicely.

Yards/Play
NO 5.4/6.4
Result: LOST

TEN 4.38/4.18
Result: WON

SEA 6.84/5.24
Result: PUSH

JAX 5.7/6.0
Result: LOST

WAS 4.6/5.3
Result: WON

SF 5.9/6.9
Result: WON

And of course this one REALLY HURTS… I said last week….

“Arizona -2.5 looks to be the sucker play off the week. This line is begging you to take Arizona, and based on my numbers there is no reason for this line to be so low unless Vegas is setting a trap. I have Arizona as having the most overall dominate line (offensive and defensive combined) and Detroit’s line simply do not match up at all here. I smell a trap!...”

Uhhh….Moving on…J

On to WEEK 6….

I have taken the Play By Play System that analyzes how well/poor teams are doing in the key statistics that win/lose NFL games and
created a chart to show us where any of the Week 6 plays fall outside the “tight” spread range and provide value/betting opportunities.

Favorite Spread Ratio – This is how strong the favorite is in the matchup from the covering the spread perspective. A NEGATIVE value means there is a good upset possibility.
A value of between 0 and 2 is considered a tight line and could go either way so stay away.

Week 6 Play By Play Analysis

Pick	Favorite	Favorite Spread Ratio	Spread	Rating
ARZ -3	ARZ	5.82	0	5.82
TEN -2.5	TEN	5.5	0	5.5
BAL -2.5	BAL	2.8	0	2.8
	NE	1.9	0	1.9
	SEA	1.9	0	1.9
	ATL	1.4	0	1.4
	DEN	1.4	0	1.4
	NYJ	1	0	1
	PHI	0.7	0	0.7
	GB	0.68	0	0.68
	MIN	0.04	0	0.04
JAX (+1.5)	HOU	-3.64	-1.5	-5.14
BUF (+3.5)	CIN	-1.9	-3.5	-5.4
CHI (+3)	DET	-2.95	-3	-5.95

So what the chart is telling us, is Arizona and Tennessee are the strongest favorites to back, Baltimore may be worth a look, and
Jacksonville, Buffalo and Chicago are VERY live underdogs. All the rest of the lines are TIGHT and could go either way.

I will post the other two systems (QBR Underdogs and Line Of Scrimmage Underdogs) later in the week.

Best of luck to all!

Fthestockmarket · 10-15-15, 12:58 PM

Your Arizona week 5 analysis was fine in that it was an absurdly low line based on the quality of the teams. The only problem was the conclusion that it must be a Vegas trap and therefore people should stay away, which is just conjecture and not statistical. Very interesting thread.

ComputerMan · 10-15-15, 01:20 PM

Originally posted by Fthestockmarket

Your Arizona week 5 analysis was fine in that it was an absurdly low line based on the quality of the teams. The only problem was the conclusion that it must be a Vegas trap and therefore people should stay away, which is just conjecture and not statistical. Very interesting thread.

I try not to put in any subjective judgement, but over years of doing this, sometimes lines just jump out at you as plain wrong. And more times then not I have been rewarded by staying away

... Glad you like the thread.

ComputerMan · 10-15-15, 07:56 PM

QBR Underdog Plays Week 6

**************************************** ******************************
Week 6 Play By Play QBR Underdog System (Underdogs with potential QBR advantage)
**************************************** ******************************

Here are the QBR Predictions for each game, for you FANTASY guys, this could maybe help you out in determining which QB’s to play.

In summary, the below charts are saying:

New England is going to have a BIG day throwing against the Colts (no big surprise)
Baltimore’s Flacco looks to be on his way as well versus the 49ers
Notable underdogs that may have a passing advantage
1. New Orleans
2. Cleveland
3. Chicago
4. Washington
5. Kansas City
6. San Diego
7. NY Giants
The Jets/Redskins QB’s are both likely to struggle
The Philly/Giant game may have some passing fireworks
Some hidden gems, Titans although a small favorite are

predicted to have a sizeable passing advantage. Seattle also will
own the sky versus a Carolina team that has faced nobody.

So picks for this system this week are:

New Orleans +3
Cleveland +4
Chicago +3
Washington +6
Kansas City +4
San Diego +10
NY Giants +4

The QBR Ratings….

ATL	107.5
NO	118.9
Advantage NO	-11.4

DEN	90.6
CLE	96.2
Advantage CLE	-5.6

HOU	104.6
JAX	86.9
Advantage HOU	17.7

DET	86.2
CHI	95.9
Advantage CHI	-9.7

TEN	91.625
MIA	75.375
Advantage TEN	16.25

NYJ	78
WAS	78.975
Advantage WAS	-0.975

ARZ	99.3
PIT	85.7
Advantage ARZ	13.6

CIN	112.5
BUF	105
Advantage CIN	7.5

MIN	85.175
KC	90.25
Advantage KC	-5.075

SEA	99.8
CAR	80.2
Advantage SEA	19.6

BAL	109.1
SF	82.1
Advantage BAL	27

GB	80.4
SD	93.8
Advantage SD	-13.4

NE	124.1
IND	90.3
Advantage NE	33.8

PHI	109.1
NYG	112.1
Advantage NYG	-3

Best of luck to all!

ComputerMan · 10-16-15, 09:50 PM

Hi Guys, here are all the Play By Play System's Picks...

Week 6 Play By Play Analysis - The Chart Explained
Power Rating	How well a team is at the most crucial aspects of winning an NFL game (As determined by my own big data research)
Favorite Spread Ratio	Reflects how much value we see in backing the FAVORITE versus the spread, after comparing the Favorite Play By Play Power Rating versus the Underdogs. (Essentially how confident we are in the Favorite covering) Currently I have set a 3.0 or more threshold for betting the Favorite, and any negative value we back the underdog.
Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicts what percent of the plays in the passing game will be successful (based on down and distance)
Predicted Big Play Success Rate	Predicts what percent of the plays will go for runs > 10 and passes > 19
Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play	Predicts how many points per red zone play the team will obtain.
Differentials	How much better the favorite is than the underdog (negative values favor the underdog)

Matchup	Power Rating	Favorite Spread Ratio	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
ATL	82.36	1.42	55.10	21.65	2.55
3.0
NO	78.11		54.60	19.35	2.21
Differentials	4.25		0.50	2.30	0.34
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: ATL		Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Favorite Spread Ratio	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
DEN	85.76	1.40	48.40	16.48	2.41
4.0
CLE	80.16		47.20	15.20	1.36
Differentials	5.60		1.20	1.28	1.05
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: DEN		Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Favorite Spread Ratio	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
HOU	73.06	-3.64	52.90	10.97	1.79
1.5
JAX	78.51		48.00	22.04	1.89
Differentials	-5.46		4.90	-11.07	-0.10
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: JAX		Worth A Bet?	Yes!

Matchup	Power Rating	Favorite Spread Ratio	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
DET	72.66	-0.98	53.50	15.53	2.15
3.0
CHI	75.61		52.20	20.40	1.77
Differentials	-2.95		1.30	-4.86	0.38
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: CHI		Worth A Bet?	Yes!

Matchup	Power Rating	Favorite Spread Ratio	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
TEN	89.38	5.50	52.88	22.54	1.95
2.5
MIA	75.63		46.00	20.70	1.82
Differentials	13.75		6.88	1.84	0.13
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: TEN		Worth A Bet?	Yes!

Matchup	Power Rating	Favorite Spread Ratio	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
NYJ	86.27	1.04	50.40	20.65	1.86
6.0
WAS	80.05		48.58	19.32	1.05
Differentials	6.22		1.83	1.33	0.81
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: NYJ		Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Favorite Spread Ratio	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
ARZ	97.59	5.82	54.80	22.34	2.61
3.0
PIT	80.13		48.10	19.23	1.24
Differentials	17.46		6.70	3.11	1.37
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: ARZ		Worth A Bet?	Yes!

Matchup	Power Rating	Favorite Spread Ratio	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
CIN	85.29	-1.91	53.20	19.79	1.67
3.5
BUF	91.97		55.50	20.59	2.63
Differentials	-6.67		-2.30	-0.81	-0.97
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: BUF		Worth A Bet?	Yes!

Matchup	Power Rating	Favorite Spread Ratio	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
MIN	75.98	0.04	50.50	18.66	2.29
4.0
KC	75.80		50.67	18.43	2.20
Differentials	0.18		-0.17	0.23	0.09
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: KC		Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Favorite Spread Ratio	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
SEA	89.18	1.88	53.65	20.43	1.73
7.0
CAR	75.99		47.78	17.68	1.60
Differentials	13.19		5.88	2.75	0.13
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: SEA		Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Favorite Spread Ratio	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
BAL	80.56	2.82	51.30	17.75	1.90
2.5
SF	73.51		48.20	16.55	1.63
Differentials	7.05		3.10	1.20	0.26
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: BAL		Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Favorite Spread Ratio	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
GB	92.30	0.68	51.30	18.62	2.87
10.0
SD	85.46		47.40	18.22	2.88
Differentials	6.84		3.90	0.39	-0.01
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: SD		Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Favorite Spread Ratio	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
NE	89.76	1.90	57.53	19.99	2.30
7.5
IND	75.52		49.88	19.79	1.57
Differentials	14.24		7.65	0.20	0.72
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: NE		Worth A Bet?

Matchup	Power Rating	Favorite Spread Ratio	Predicted Pass Success Rate	Predicted Big Play Rate	Predicted Red Zone Pts/Play
PHI	83.53	0.66	54.00	15.90	1.81
4.0
NYG	80.88		52.70	16.17	1.39
Differentials	2.65		1.30	-0.27	0.42
PREDICTION:	Spread Favors: NYG		Worth A Bet?

Week 6 Play By Play Line Of Scrimmage Ratings - Chart Explained
This chart will show a teams overall Line Of Scrimmage rating. It is a combined offensive and defensive statistic of how well teams perform in the trenches. In theory it should give us a better idea of what team may win the line of scrimmage battle.
It is used to see which Underdogs may be stronger in the trenches (See green highlighted).

Team	Line Of Scrimmage Rating
ATL	210
NO	203
Advantage: ATL with a rating of 7.0

Team	Line Of Scrimmage Rating
DEN	203
CLE	196
Advantage: DEN with a rating of 7.0

Team	Line Of Scrimmage Rating
HOU	202
JAX	197
Advantage: HOU with a rating of 5.0

Team	Line Of Scrimmage Rating
DET	191
CHI	188
Advantage: DET with a rating of 3.0

Team	Line Of Scrimmage Rating
TEN	204
MIA	195
Advantage: TEN with a rating of 9.0

Team	Line Of Scrimmage Rating
NYJ	200
WAS	201
Advantage: WAS with a rating of 1.0**

Team	Line Of Scrimmage Rating
ARZ	209
PIT	188
Advantage: ARZ with a rating of 21.0

Team	Line Of Scrimmage Rating
CIN	203
BUF	204
Advantage: BUF with a rating of 1.0**

Team	Line Of Scrimmage Rating
MIN	188
KC	201
Advantage: KC with a rating of 13.0**

Team	Line Of Scrimmage Rating
SEA	208
CAR	191
Advantage: SEA with a rating of 17.0

Team	Line Of Scrimmage Rating
BAL	196
SF	198
Advantage: SF with a rating of 2.0**

Team	Line Of Scrimmage Rating
GB	209
SD	199
Advantage: GB with a rating of 10.0

Team	Line Of Scrimmage Rating
NE	206
IND	191
Advantage: NE with a rating of 15.0

Team	Line Of Scrimmage Rating
PHI	189
NYG	198
Advantage: NYG with a rating of 9.0**

Week 6 QBR Rating System - Chart Explained
The QBR Rating is how well we think the QB will perform in this matchup. A rating of 100 or more is considered very good, below 90 they are likely to struggle.
We will look for Underdogs where their QB rating may be better than the favorites.

ATL	107.5
NO	118.9
Advantage: NO with a rating of 11.4**

DEN	90.6
CLE	96.2
Advantage: CLE with a rating of 5.6**

HOU	104.6
JAX	86.9
Advantage: HOU with a rating of 17.7

DET	86.2
CHI	95.9
Advantage: CHI with a rating of 9.7**

TEN	91.625
MIA	75.375
Advantage: TEN with a rating of 16.3

NYJ	78
WAS	78.975
Advantage: WAS with a rating of 1.0**

ARZ	99.3
PIT	85.7
Advantage: ARZ with a rating of 13.6

CIN	112.5
BUF	105
Advantage: CIN with a rating of 7.5

MIN	85.175
KC	90.25
Advantage: KC with a rating of 5.1**

SEA	99.8
CAR	80.2
Advantage: SEA with a rating of 19.6

BAL	109.1
SF	82.1
Advantage: BAL with a rating of 27.0

GB	80.4
SD	93.8
Advantage: SD with a rating of 13.4**

NE	124.1
IND	90.3
Advantage: NE with a rating of 33.8

PHI	109.1
NYG	112.1
Advantage: NYG with a rating of 3.0**

Best Of Luck to all!

ComputerMan · 10-17-15, 06:18 PM

Weeks 6 Plays Summarized...

Here is a summary of the Play By Play Picks From Each System..

(7-5-1)	(5-1)	(3-1-1)	(3-2-1)
Play By Play (Important Stats For Winning)	QBR All 20+ Rating	QBR Underdogs	Line Of Scrimmage Underdogs
JAX	NO	NO	WAS
CHI	HOU	CLE	BUF
TEN	TEN	CHI	KC
ARZ	ARZ	WAS	SF
BUF	SEA	KC	NYG
	BAL	SD
	SD	NYG
	NE

Best of luck!

ComputerMan · 10-23-15, 08:56 PM

Week 7 Play By Play System's Picks

Week 7 Plays - Please see attached

I created an excel spreadsheet for easier viewing....

TAB: PBP - Play By Play For Statistics Important For Winning an NFL game
TAB: QB - Play By Play Underdog's With Projected Better QB Performance
TAB: LOS - Play By Play Underdog's With Projected Better Line Of Scrimmage

(Note: Tennessee is off the board as a play without Marriota)

Week7Plays.xlsx

New This Week... I have created a new big data analytic that will try and determine which QB is likely to underperform. I based this
on evaluating how teams have performed in passing situations. I tested it in week 6 and it did well so fingers crossed.

Chart Explained:
Offense Pass Prot. Failure - The percent of time a team fails to protect the QB in passing situations
Defense Pressure Successs - The percent of time a team is successful pressuring the QB
Combined Overall Rating - The combined Offense and Defense rating
QB's Chance Of Underperforming - The probability that a QB will be under duress and underperform

Week7QBUnderperf.xlsx

dlunc3 · 10-24-15, 11:15 AM

what is your record this season with these picks?

ComputerMan · 10-31-15, 08:32 AM

Week 8 Play By Play Analysis And System's Picks

Week 8 Plays - Please see attached

I created an excel spreadsheet for easier viewing....

TAB: StatSheet - Overall important stats for handicapping a game
TAB: PBP - Play By Play Picks For Statistics Important For Winning an NFL game
TAB: QB - Play By Play Picks Underdog's With Projected Better QB Performance
TAB: LOS - Play By Play Picks Underdog's With Projected Better Line Of Scrimmage

Week8Analysis.xlsx

TheRealLine · 10-31-15, 06:49 PM

Echoing dlunc3's post looking for what your record is on these plays? It's great that you're sharing your picks and analysis but does it beat a coin flip?

ComputerMan · 10-31-15, 07:37 PM

All this is new for me this year, so I am hoping to find some value in it somewhere. I also hope that some of the members here find it interesting and useful in their own handicapping.

ComputerMan · 10-31-15, 07:41 PM

What The Play By Play Data Is Telling Us…

Miami/New England

Miami may be able to run the ball effectively
Tannehill may be in for a sub par performance

Kansas City/Detroit

Both teams have some issues protecting the QB but KC has a distinct advantage in applying pass rush pressure.
There is a high likelihood that Stafford may be in for a tough game.

Baltimore/San Diego

Baltimore will have a good day running the ball
Rivers will likely outperform Flacco
Tough one to call, good one to pass on.

Cincinnati/Pittsburgh

With Ben coming back all the stats are kind of meaningless

Minnesota/Chicago

Bears have a slight effective running advantage
The Vikings will be the team that creates and handles the pressure passing situations better
The QB performances appear to be very close

Tampa Bay/ Atlanta

Although we know Atlanta is the better team, the Buc’s appear to have an interesting advantage in creating pressure that may cause Ryan to throw a few picks.
DeVante Freeman should have a HUGE day for the Falcons
Atlanta has a weak pass rush, so Winston may make some plays.
All in all this one may be closer than people think

Arizona/Cleveland

Classic trap spot for Arizona. Traveling, off the MNF game against an inferior opponent.
Arizona has a huge advantage in pass pressures which could lead to a very bad day for Josh.

New Orleans/NY Giants

Don’t look now but the Saints are on a roll. They have a very big advantage in applying/handling pass rush pressure in this game. Eli has been great at handling the pressure, but eventually it will wind up costing the Giants.
The Giants hold a slight effective running advantage
Overall looks like Brees will have the better numbers

St. Louis/San Francisco

San Francisco’s running game give them a punchers chance of hanging in this one.
St. Louis looks like they will be all over Collin K. so look for a sub par performance from him.

Ny Jets/Oakland

Very tough spot here for the Jets. Coming off the huge effort against the Patriots and now traveling East to West against a very tough Raider squad. Yikes, this one has let down written all over it.
Both QB’s may enjoy some time to throw, and Oakland has a predicted slightly better performance for Carr over Fitz.
Upset here would not be a surprise

Seattle/Dallas

The Cowboys absolutely outplayed the Giants last week, if not for a 100 yard kickoff return the Giants lose that game.
Dallas continues to impress me without Romo and Dez and I think this club is going to be very good once they are healthy.
Seattle is playing better but not the dominate force they were. I think this line is inflated a bit and there is value with Dallas at home.
Dallas’s pass rush versus that bad protecting O-line of Seattle makes me think that the Cowboys can hang here.

Green Bay/Denver

3-0 may win this…
Both defenses playing extremely well but Denver is the cream of the crop right now.
Look for Green Bay to have the advantage on the ground.
Denver has a big advantage in applying pressure, so Aaron may be in for a tough game, and may turn it over more than he is accustomed too.
I think getting 3 here at home is a nice play

Carolina/Indianapolis

Luck isn’t right, we can all see that. The question is, how healthy is he? And what game might his health return? For that reason alone I would stay away from any Colt games.
Carolina’s defense has been playing extremely well and playing at home against a beat up Colt team you would assume they would stay in control.

ComputerMan · 11-02-15, 02:30 PM

Ok, I have been pouring over all the data since week 6 to try and find some things that look promising and here is the best one I have found:

When the Combined Overall Rating (calculated from “Offense Pass Protection Failure” and “Defense Pressure Successs”) is at 15% or more, the team with the 15% or more predicted advantage has a 13-6-3 record against the spread.

Included in the 6 losses are these two:

The backdoor cover by the Jets over the Patriots
The Giants with the 110 yard kickoff return that buried Dallas (Dallas dominated statistically)

So even these two “losses” were pretty solid plays.

Tonight the Panthers fall just short to qualify, they are at 13.28%.... So it wouldn’t be a play, but it looks like decent pressure will be on Luck tonight.

Best of luck!

ComputerMan · 11-07-15, 08:26 AM

Week 9 Play By Play Analysis And System's Picks

Week 9 Analysis, suggested plays are at the bottom of the spreadsheet, CIN wound up a play for the 13-6-3 Pressure/Turnover plays so this analytic keeps on rolling....

Week9Analysis.xlsx

ComputerMan · 11-14-15, 10:27 AM

Week 10 Play By Play Analysis And System's Picks

JAGS +5
TITANS +5.5 (Best Bet)
CARDS +3

Week10PlayByPlayAnalysis.xlsx

Best of luck!

ComputerMan · 11-21-15, 05:22 PM

CINCINNATI +5 over Arizona
Washington +7.5 over CAROLINA
Oakland -2 over DETROIT
Indianapolis +6 over ATLANTA

Best of luck.

ComputerMan · 11-28-15, 03:44 PM

Tampa Bay +3
Pittsburgh +4.5

Best of luck!