NFL Plays: 2015 by FUqer

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  • FUqer
    SBR MVP
    • 01-22-15
    • 3968

    #1
    NFL Plays: 2015 by FUqer
    º«{3}» Chiefs +1
  • FUqer
    SBR MVP
    • 01-22-15
    • 3968

    #2
    Trying to get Bills +3 and Jags +3.5
    Comment
    • Alex Vaile
      SBR MVP
      • 04-19-14
      • 3724

      #3
      Originally posted by FUqer
      Trying to get Bills +3 and Jags +3.5
      I like the Bills too buddy let's get it!
      Comment
      • FUqer
        SBR MVP
        • 01-22-15
        • 3968

        #4
        º«{2}» Jaguars +3
        º«{2}» Bills +3 (Bought ½)
        º«{1}» Jets -3
        º«{1}» Dolphins -3 (Bought ½)
        º«{1}» Seahawks -3 (Bought ½)
        Comment
        • FUqer
          SBR MVP
          • 01-22-15
          • 3968

          #5
          º«{1}» Cardinals -2
          º«{1}» Titans +3
          Comment
          • Trip8z
            SBR High Roller
            • 10-28-13
            • 110

            #6
            Anything tonight?
            Comment
            • FUqer
              SBR MVP
              • 01-22-15
              • 3968

              #7
              No, I just had a small lean on the Giants but not enough to play.
              Comment
              • FUqer
                SBR MVP
                • 01-22-15
                • 3968

                #8
                Season = 6-2 for +$560

                º«{1}» Falcons +3 +100
                Comment
                • GT21Megatron
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 12-20-13
                  • 10818

                  #9
                  Good work in here bro
                  Comment
                  • FUqer
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-22-15
                    • 3968

                    #10
                    Season = 7-2 = 6.6 Units

                    º«{1}» Broncos +3 +100
                    Comment
                    • FUqer
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-22-15
                      • 3968

                      #11
                      Season = 8-2 = 7.6 Units

                      º«{2}» Steelers -5½
                      Comment
                      • Calgunner23
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-06-15
                        • 1357

                        #12
                        Have Pitts/ St.Louis in a teaser. Good luck sir.
                        Comment
                        • FUqer
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-22-15
                          • 3968

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Calgunner23
                          Have Pitts/ St.Louis in a teaser. Good luck sir.
                          thx u2 bro
                          Comment
                          • Trip8z
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 10-28-13
                            • 110

                            #14
                            Anything fuqer for 4
                            Comment
                            • FUqer
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-22-15
                              • 3968

                              #15
                              I got nothing, sorry.
                              Comment
                              • FUqer
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-22-15
                                • 3968

                                #16
                                º«{2}» Colts -6½
                                ---------------------------------
                                9-2 on the season for 9.6 Units
                                I like the Colts tonight to get the job done. Their defense can only get better after last week and the Bills shown yesterday, that their offense isn't that bad by putting up a lot of points on the Patriots. It's not going to be easy without Hilton playing, but I think Luck gets the job done. GLA!
                                Jets are 2-11-2 outside the AFC East.

                                Colts are 6-0-1 vs spread in game after they lost as a favorite.

                                Comment
                                • Renegades
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 10-12-11
                                  • 5290

                                  #17
                                  I think Hilton is playing
                                  Comment
                                  • FUqer
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-22-15
                                    • 3968

                                    #18
                                    Season = 9-3 for +7.40 Units

                                    Thursday 9/24

                                    Giants -3½

                                    Cousins has yet to win back to back games as a pro.
                                    Giants picked off Cousin 4 times last year.
                                    Giants won 45-14 in Washington on Thursday, Sept. 25th, last season as 3.5 dogs.
                                    Giants won 16-7 at Home on Thursday, Sept. 04th 2008, as 4 point favs.
                                    Giants won last 4 matchups vs Redskins SU & ATS.
                                    Giants 4-0 ATS L4 at home when favored by 4 or less.

                                    The Under is 13-1-1 in the L15 matchups in New York and 7-18-1 since 1996.
                                    The Under is 8-2 since Oct 28, 1990 when the Giants face the Redskins at home after an ATS loss.
                                    Comment
                                    • FUqer
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-22-15
                                      • 3968

                                      #19
                                      Season = 10-3 for +8.40

                                      º«{4}» Bills +3
                                      º«{4}» 49ers +7 -120
                                      º«{2}» Vikings -1
                                      º«{1}» Bengals +2½
                                      º«{1}» Jaguars +14½
                                      º«{1}» Browns -3½
                                      º«{1}» Jets -1
                                      º«{1}» Colts -3
                                      º«{1}» Falcons pk
                                      ------------------------------


                                      Bills are 9-5 ATS L14 vs a divisional oppenent.


                                      Bills are on a 6-2 ATS run, 4-0 ATS after a loss.


                                      Dolphins 2-6 ATS L8 vs a divisional oppenent.


                                      Dolphins are on a 1-6 ATS run, 2-5 ATS at home, and 0-5 ATS against the AFC.
                                      ----
                                      49ers are 8-0 ATS when visiting a team that has allowed an average of 375 yards of offense season-to-date.


                                      49ers are 8-0 ATS as a dog vs a divisional opponent with non-divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks.
                                      ----
                                      Vikings are 7-1 ATS last nine non-conference games and 11-3 ATS home off division home game.


                                      Vikings have won 5 of last 6 at home.


                                      Chargers are 0-10 OU (-14.80 ppg) since Oct 24, 2004 as a dog off a game as an away dog of more than three points.
                                      ----
                                      Bengals are 25-13-1 in games with spread of 3 or less since 2007.


                                      Ravens are only 1-4 SU & ATS against the Bengals L5.
                                      ----
                                      Tom Brady is 0-9 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since December 2009 when they are favored by more than a TD after a game where they threw for at least 340 yards.


                                      Patriots are 17-0 OU (7.3 ppg) since December 12, 2004 as a home favorite after a road win that went over the total by more than seven points.


                                      Patriots are 7-26 ATS since 2011, when they averaged 5.4 or more yards a play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
                                      ----
                                      Raiders are 1-19 during their previous twenty road games.


                                      Raiders have gone 0-9 SU & ATS in their previous nine games following a win, and lost those contests by an average of 21.1 points per game.
                                      ----
                                      Jets are the first team in over 20 years to have five takeaways in each of their first two games to start a season.


                                      Jets are on a 5-0 ATS run.


                                      Jets are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.


                                      Eagles are 5-16-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
                                      ----
                                      Colts 13-0 ATS vs a divisional opponent since Dec. 30th 2012.


                                      Colts are 6-1-1 vs spread in game after they lost as a favorite.


                                      Colts are 15-1 ATS after a SU and ATS loss.


                                      Titans are 0-11 ATS vs a divisional opponent since Nov. 10th 2013.
                                      Comment
                                      • FUqer
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-22-15
                                        • 3968

                                        #20
                                        º«{2}» Packers -5½
                                        ------------------------------
                                        Just 4-5 yesterday for even units, but lost some juice. I risked to much on bad 49ers team and I should of stayed with my gut and went with the Raiders. A little too over aggressive yesterday overall.
                                        Some RLM tonight and that scares me of course, but I've been betting MLB all year, with RLM in multiple games daily. Sometimes, it's just a ploy by the bookies, they are well aware of it and they know what happened last Monday. Granted RLM in MLB isn't the same as in NFL. But, that is my hope tonight. If it were so easy to bet on RLM sides, then everyone would do it, sometimes you just got to go with your gut. GLA!
                                        SEASON - 14-8 for +7.20 Units
                                        Comment
                                        • Slowmotion
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 01-04-13
                                          • 209

                                          #21
                                          Goodluck bro
                                          Comment
                                          • FUqer
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 01-22-15
                                            • 3968

                                            #22
                                            Average MOV for all 32 teams has been 2.41, since the 2005 season.

                                            Teams at home since 2005

                                            Patriots 47-42-2 ATS and MOV = +11.4 ppg
                                            Packers 50-35-4 ATS and MOV = +8.7 ppg
                                            Ravens 45-38-1 ATS and MOV = +8.6 ppg
                                            Seahawks 61-29-1 ATS and MOV = +8.4 ppg
                                            Chargers 45-40-0 ATS and MOV = +8.1 ppg
                                            Steelers 49-37-2 ATS and MOV = +7.6 ppg
                                            Colts 47-42-2 ATS and MOV = +6.2 ppg
                                            Saints 44-37-3 ATS and MOV = +6.2 ppg
                                            Cowboys 36-48-1 ATS and MOV = +4.4 ppg
                                            Broncos 39-49-1 ATS and MOV = +3.8 ppg
                                            Eagles 33-51-0 ATS and MOV = +3.6 ppg
                                            Vikings 47-37-0 ATS and MOV = +3.2 ppg
                                            Giants 41-45-0 ATS and MOV = +3.1 ppg
                                            Bears 38-46-4 ATS and MOV = +3.1 ppg
                                            49ers 44-37-4 ATS and MOV = +3.0 ppg
                                            Cardinals 49-36-1 ATS and MOV = +2.6 ppg
                                            Falcons 44-39-1 ATS and MOV = +2.3 ppg
                                            Bengals 39-42-3 ATS and MOV = +2.1 ppg
                                            Texans 38-43-3 ATS and MOV = +1.7 ppg
                                            Jets 40-41-1 ATS and MOV = +1.4 ppg
                                            Panthers 39-45-1 ATS and MOV = +0.4 ppg
                                            Bills 42-37-3 ATS and MOV = +0.1 ppg
                                            Titans 35-45-2 ATS and MOV = -0.5 ppg
                                            Lions 37-41-3 ATS and MOV = -0.7 ppg
                                            Chiefs 37-43-2 ATS and MOV = -1.0 ppg
                                            Jaguars 34-46-2 ATS and MOV = -1.2 ppg
                                            Redskins 33-46-4 ATS and MOV = -1.6 ppg
                                            Dolphins 29-49-4 ATS and MOV = -1.7 ppg
                                            Browns 40-40-2 ATS and MOV = -2.7 ppg
                                            Buccaneers 31-48-4 ATS and MOV = -2.8 ppg
                                            Rams 34-47-1 ATS and MOV = -4.8 ppg
                                            Raiders 31-51-0 ATS and MOV = -6.0 ppg
                                            Comment
                                            • FUqer
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-22-15
                                              • 3968

                                              #23
                                              This is a predicted model of how the lines would be on a neutral field, according to the current lines given by Vegas, by subtracting the data found on Home Teams margin of victory since 2005.


                                              Example: Chargers have a 8.1 MOV since 2005 at Home. Then subtract the 7.5 line, leaves you with the Chargers +0.6 on a Neutral Field.


                                              Steelers +10.6 vs Ravens
                                              Dolphins +4.7 vs Jets
                                              Colts -2.3 vs Jaguars
                                              Falcons -4.2 vs Texans
                                              Bucs +0.2 vs Panthers
                                              Bills -5.9 vs Giants
                                              Bears +6.1 vs Raiders
                                              Redskins +4.6 vs Eagles
                                              Bengals -1.9 vs Chiefs
                                              Chargers +0.6 vs Browns
                                              49ers +5.5 vs Packers
                                              Broncos -2.7 vs Vikings
                                              Cardinals -3.9 vs Rams
                                              Seahawks -0.6 vs Lions


                                              -------------------------------


                                              Going by this model, some teams that stand out to me are:


                                              Panthers,Chargers, Packers, and Seahawks




                                              I will prolly do this for a more recent time period, maybe within the last 5 years.
                                              Comment
                                              • FUqer
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-22-15
                                                • 3968

                                                #24
                                                Teams on the road since 2005. I left it in the same order as above so it's easier to cross reference.




                                                Patriots 51-33-2 ATS and MOV = +7.7 ppg
                                                Packers 48-39-0 ATS and MOV = +1.1 ppg
                                                Ravens 43-50-2 ATS and MOV = -0.6 ppg
                                                Seahawks 37-51-1 ATS and MOV = -2.2 ppg
                                                Chargers 44-41-2 ATS and MOV = +1.7 ppg
                                                Steelers 41-46-1 ATS and MOV = +2.4 ppg
                                                Colts 49-38-2 ATS and MOV = +0.2 ppg
                                                Saints 42-45-2 ATS and MOV = +0.2 ppg
                                                Cowboys 45-38-1 ATS and MOV = +0.2 ppg
                                                Broncos 44-39-0 ATS and MOV = -0.9 ppg
                                                Eagles 47-39-1 ATS and MOV = +0.3 ppg
                                                Vikings 36-44-3 ATS and MOV = -4.0 ppg
                                                Giants 54-34-0 ATS and MOV = +0.1 ppg
                                                Bears 37-39-5 ATS and MOV = -1.6 ppg
                                                49ers 42-40-4 ATS and MOV = -4.4 ppg
                                                Cardinals 41-41-2 ATS and MOV = -5.7 ppg
                                                Falcons 45-37-2 ATS and MOV = -1.6 ppg
                                                Bengals 43-38-4 ATS and MOV = -1.3 ppg
                                                Texans 38-43-2 ATS and MOV = -3.9 ppg
                                                Jets 44-43-1 ATS and MOV = -4.0 ppg
                                                Panthers 42-40-3 ATS and MOV = -0.9 ppg
                                                Bills 40-40-1 ATS and MOV = -6.8 ppg
                                                Titans 40-41-2 ATS and MOV = -4.6 ppg
                                                Lions 31-51-2 ATS and MOV = -8.1 ppg
                                                Chiefs 45-36-3 ATS and MOV = -4.4 ppg
                                                Jaguars 41-40-3 ATS and MOV = -6.5 ppg
                                                Redskins 41-40-3 ATS and MOV = -4.4 ppg
                                                Dolphins 44-36-2 ATS and MOV = -2.0 ppg
                                                Browns 42-37-2 ATS and MOV = -6.9 ppg
                                                Buccaneers 42-39-1 ATS and MOV = -4.9 ppg
                                                Rams 36-44-1 ATS and MOV = -9.0 ppg
                                                Raiders 41-39-1 ATS and MOV = -8.8 ppg












                                                Example: Raiders -3 at Bears

                                                Bears = Difference in MOV at Home(+3.1) vs MOV on the Road(-1.6) for the Current Home Team Example = (4.7)


                                                Raiders = Difference in MOV on the Road(-8.8) vs MOV at Home(-6.0) for the Current Road Team = (-2.8)




                                                Find the difference between numbers above (7.5) and divide that by 2: (7.5/2) = 3.75


                                                3.75 is the suggested home field advantage for the Bears.


                                                Subtract that number from the spread if the home team is favored.
                                                Add that number to the spread if road team is favored.


                                                Road team is favored by 3, so add 3.75 and you get a suggested neutral field line of Raiders -6.75
                                                Last edited by FUqer; 10-01-15, 07:10 AM.
                                                Comment
                                                • FUqer
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-22-15
                                                  • 3968

                                                  #25
                                                  I improved the way I calculated the neutral field line above in my edit.

                                                  I'm going to do the data for the last 5 years today.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • FUqer
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-22-15
                                                    • 3968

                                                    #26
                                                    Since 2010


                                                    Home on Top
                                                    Away on Bottom


                                                    Patriots 30-21-0 ATS and MOV = +12.6 ppg
                                                    Patriots 24-18-1 ATS and MOV = +8.1 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +4.5
                                                    AVG MOV = +10.35


                                                    Packers 30-16-1 ATS and MOV = +12.0 ppg
                                                    Packers 23-23 ATS and MOV = +1.3 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +10.7
                                                    AVG MOV = +6.65


                                                    Ravens 20-22-1 ATS and MOV = +8.3 ppg
                                                    Ravens 25-23-2 ATS and MOV = +0.4 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +7.9
                                                    AVG MOV = +4.35


                                                    Seahawks 32-14-1 ATS and MOV = +9.2 ppg
                                                    Seahawks 23-22-1 ATS and MOV = +1.1 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +8.1
                                                    AVG MOV = +5.15


                                                    Chargers 20-21-0 ATS and MOV = +6.0 ppg
                                                    Chargers 21-22-1 ATS and MOV = -1.3 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +7.3
                                                    AVG MOV = +2.35


                                                    Steelers 26-17-1 ATS and MOV = +7.5 ppg
                                                    Steelers 19-25-0 ATS and MOV = +0.4 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +7.1
                                                    AVG MOV = +3.95


                                                    Colts 25-18-1 ATS and MOV = +3.3 ppg
                                                    Colts 22-23-1 ATS and MOV = -5.2 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +8.5
                                                    AVG MOV = -0.95


                                                    Saints 25-15-2 ATS and MOV = +8.8 ppg
                                                    Saints 19-27-0 ATS and MOV = -0.3 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +9.1
                                                    AVG MOV = +4.25


                                                    Cowboys 14-29-0 ATS and MOV = +2.0 ppg
                                                    Cowboys 25-16-1 ATS and MOV = -0.2 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +1.8
                                                    AVG MOV = +0.9


                                                    Broncos 23-24-0 ATS and MOV = +5.8 ppg
                                                    Broncos 24-19 ATS and MOV = +0.3 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +5.5
                                                    AVG MOV = +3.05


                                                    Eagles 14-29-0 ATS and MOV = +1.7 ppg
                                                    Eagles 22-19-1 ATS and MOV = +0.3 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +1.4
                                                    AVG MOV = +1.0


                                                    Vikings 24-18-0 ATS and MOV = +0.3 ppg
                                                    Vikings 18-23-1 ATS and MOV = -6.4 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +6.7
                                                    AVG MOV = -3.05


                                                    Giants 19-24-0 ATS and MOV = +3.1 ppg
                                                    Giants 24-20-0 ATS and MOV = -1.5 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +4.6
                                                    AVG MOV = +0.8


                                                    Bears 16-25-3 ATS and MOV = +0.3 ppg
                                                    Bears 20-20-1 ATS and MOV = -1.7 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +2.0
                                                    AVG MOV = -0.7


                                                    49ers 23-20-2 ATS and MOV = +8.3 ppg
                                                    49ers 23-20-3 ATS and MOV = -0.4 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +8.7
                                                    AVG MOV = +3.95


                                                    Cardinals 24-17-1 ATS and MOV = +3.5 ppg
                                                    Cardinals 22-20-0 ATS and MOV = -7.2 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +10.7
                                                    AVG MOV = -1.85


                                                    Falcons 23-20-1 ATS and MOV = +3.6 ppg
                                                    Falcons 23-19-1 ATS and MOV = -0.4 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +4.0
                                                    AVG MOV = +1.6


                                                    Bengals 23-18-1 ATS and MOV = +4.0 ppg
                                                    Bengals 22-20-3 ATS and MOV = -0.7 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +4.7
                                                    AVG MOV = +1.65


                                                    Texans 21-22-1 ATS and MOV = +2.7 ppg
                                                    Texans 19-22-2 ATS and MOV = -1.2 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +3.9
                                                    AVG MOV = +0.75


                                                    Jets 21-21-0 ATS and MOV = +0.8 ppg
                                                    Jets 22-21-1 ATS and MOV = -5.3 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +6.1
                                                    AVG MOV = -2.25


                                                    Panthers 21-23-0 ATS and MOV = -0.8 ppg
                                                    Panthers 20-21-1 ATS and MOV = -2.6 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +1.8
                                                    AVG MOV = -1.7


                                                    Bills 22-19-1 ATS and MOV = +1.0 ppg
                                                    Bills 19-22-0 ATS and MOV = -7.3 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +8.3
                                                    AVG MOV = -3.15


                                                    Titans 14-26-1 ATS and MOV = -2.4 ppg
                                                    Titans 18-22-2 ATS and MOV = -4.9 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +2.5
                                                    AVG MOV = -3.65


                                                    Lions 22-19-0 ATS and MOV = +4.4 ppg
                                                    Lions 16-27-1 ATS and MOV = -3.5 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +7.9
                                                    AVG MOV = +0.45


                                                    Chiefs 20-22-0 ATS and MOV = +0.0 ppg
                                                    Chiefs 24-18-1 ATS and MOV = -3.2 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +3.2
                                                    AVG MOV = -1.6


                                                    Jaguars 16-25-1 ATS and MOV = -8.2 ppg
                                                    Jaguars 20-20-1 ATS and MOV = -9.8 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +1.6
                                                    AVG MOV = -9.0


                                                    Redskins 17-23-3 ATS and MOV = -4.3 ppg
                                                    Redskins 20-21-0 ATS and MOV = -5.2 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +0.9
                                                    AVG MOV = -4.75


                                                    Dolphins 16-22-3 ATS and MOV = -0.9 ppg
                                                    Dolphins 23-19-0 ATS and MOV = -1.5 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +0.6
                                                    AVG MOV = -1.2


                                                    Browns 18-23-1 ATS and MOV = -2.4 ppg
                                                    Browns 20-20-1 ATS and MOV = -6.4 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +4.0
                                                    AVG MOV = -4.4


                                                    Buccaneers 14-26-1 ATS and MOV = -4.3 ppg
                                                    Buccaneers 23-18-1 ATS and MOV = -6.6 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +2.3
                                                    AVG MOV = -5.45


                                                    Rams 20-21-1 ATS and MOV = -2.0 ppg
                                                    Rams 19-22-0 ATS and MOV = -6.9 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +4.9
                                                    AVG MOV = -4.45


                                                    Raiders 18-24-0 ATS and MOV = -4.5 ppg
                                                    Raiders 22-19-0 ATS and MOV = -8.2 ppg
                                                    Home/Away Difference = +3.7
                                                    AVG MOV = -6.35


                                                    ---------------------------------------


                                                    Example: Raiders +3 at Bears


                                                    Bears = Difference in MOV at Home(+0.3) vs MOV on the Road(-1.7) for the Current Home Team = (+2.0)
                                                    Raiders = Difference in MOV on the Road(-8.2) vs MOV at Home(-4.5) for the Current Road Team = (-3.7)




                                                    Find the difference between numbers above (5.7) and divide that by 2: (5.7/2) = 2.85


                                                    2.85 is the suggested home field advantage for the Bears.


                                                    Subtract that number from the spread if the home team is favored.
                                                    Add that number to the spread if road team is favored.


                                                    Road team is favored by 3, so add 2.85 and you get a suggested neutral field line of Raiders -5.85
                                                    Comment
                                                    • FUqer
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-22-15
                                                      • 3968

                                                      #27
                                                      Actual Lines ////Suggested Neutral Field Spead


                                                      Teams-----------------(2005 2010)


                                                      Dolphins +3 vs Jets (-5.85 -6.35)
                                                      Jaguars +8½ at Colts (-2.85 -3.45)
                                                      Texans +6½ at Falcons (-1.75 -2.55)
                                                      Bucs +3 vs Panthers (-4.70 -5.05)
                                                      Giants +6 at Bills (-1.05 +0.45)
                                                      Bears +3 vs Raiders (-6.75 -5.85)
                                                      Redskins +3 vs Eagles (-6.05 -4.15)
                                                      Chiefs +4 at Bengals (-0.60 -0.05)
                                                      Browns +7½ at Chargers ( -2.20 -1.85)
                                                      49ers +8½ vs Packers (-16.0 -18.2)
                                                      Vikings +6½ at Broncos (-0.55 -0.40)
                                                      Rams +6½ vs Cardinals(-0.25 +1.30)
                                                      Lions +9 at Seahawks (-0.00 -1.00)


                                                      -------------------------------
                                                      Last edited by FUqer; 10-01-15, 09:24 AM.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • FUqer
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-22-15
                                                        • 3968

                                                        #28
                                                        Let's go Steelers!!!!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • FUqer
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-22-15
                                                          • 3968

                                                          #29
                                                          WEEK #4

                                                          º«{1}» Dolphins +2 +100
                                                          º«{2}» Bengals -3½ -105
                                                          Comment
                                                          • FUqer
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-22-15
                                                            • 3968

                                                            #30
                                                            º«{1}» Panthers -3 -105
                                                            º«{1}» Giants +6½
                                                            º«{1}» Redskins +3
                                                            º«{1}» Texans +5½


                                                            º«{1}» Packers/49ers Over 48
                                                            º«{1}» Chargers -5
                                                            Comment
                                                            • FUqer
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-22-15
                                                              • 3968

                                                              #31
                                                              º«{2}» Broncos -6½
                                                              Comment
                                                              • FUqer
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-22-15
                                                                • 3968

                                                                #32
                                                                º«{1}» Lions +10
                                                                Comment
                                                                • FUqer
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-22-15
                                                                  • 3968

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Season Record After 4 Weeks = 20-13 +8.70 Units.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • FUqer
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-22-15
                                                                    • 3968

                                                                    #34
                                                                    WEEK 5

                                                                    ~ Rams +9 at Packers

                                                                    I got the Packers with the best HF adv. since 2010 and the Rams as the 5th worst road team. My model has the Packers having a 7.80 point HF adv. over the Rams, and an even bigger 10.70 HF adv. since 2014. I also have the Packers at least 6 points better than the Rams, which leaves some good value at -9.

                                                                    Taking current situations into consideration is important to go along with any model and the Rams could be in a let down spot heading into their bye week, after an upset win at Arizona. I see no let down for the Packers here, as I'm sure they felt they have room for improvement after last week and they take great pride when playing at home. I don't think they let the Rams sneak up on them after last week.

                                                                    The public seems split so far, I'm sure there is some over reaction from the Ram victory, but that is good for me. I expect the Packers side will probaly pick up steam as the week goes on, but it shouldn't get too out of hand.

                                                                    The Packers are 4-0 ATS vs the Rams since 2007.

                                                                    PLAY: º«{2}» PACKERS -9
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • FUqer
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-22-15
                                                                      • 3968

                                                                      #35
                                                                      SINCE 2010


                                                                      Losing Margin the Previous Week and Records for the Following Week.




                                                                      -1 - SU: 31-21-0 (59.6%) & ATS: 27-22-3 (55.1%)
                                                                      -2 - SU: 23-26-0 (46.9%) & ATS: 21-27-1 (43.8%)
                                                                      -3 - SU: 90-89-0 (50.3%) & ATS: 84-88-7 (48.8%)
                                                                      -4 - SU: 41-32-0 (56.2%) & ATS: 44-27-2 (62.0%)
                                                                      -5 - SU: 20-20-0 (50.0%) & ATS: 19-20-1 (48.7%)
                                                                      -6 - SU: 36-34-0 (51.4%) & ATS: 39-30-1 (56.5%)
                                                                      -7 - SU: 57-60-0 (48.7%) & ATS: 59-56-2 (51.3%)
                                                                      -8 - SU: 20-29-0 (40.8%) & ATS: 24-25-0 (49.0%)
                                                                      -9 - SU: 8-5-0 (61.5%) & ATS: 8-4-1 (66.7%)
                                                                      -10 - SU: 25-52-0 (32.5%) & ATS: 31-46-0 (40.3%)
                                                                      -11 - SU: 14-14-0 (50.0%) & ATS: 17-11-0 (60.7%)
                                                                      -12 - SU: 9-11-0 (45.0%) & ATS: 11-9-0 (55.0%)
                                                                      -13 - SU: 15-21-0 (41.7%) & ATS: 19-17-0 (52.8%)
                                                                      -14 - SU: 28-28-1 (50.0%) & ATS: 36-21-0 (63.2%)
                                                                      -15 - SU: 6-13-0 (31.6%) & ATS: 8-10-1 (44.4%)
                                                                      -16 - SU: 10-23-0 (30.3%) & ATS: 16-17-0 (48.5%)
                                                                      -17 - SU: 15-19-0 (44.1%) & ATS: 18-15-1 (54.5%)
                                                                      -18 - SU: 13-22-0 (37.1%) & ATS: 14-21-0 (40.0%)
                                                                      -19 - SU: 3-8-0 (27.3%) & ATS: 3-8-0 (27.3%)
                                                                      -20 - SU: 17-6-0 (73.9%) & ATS: 16-7-0 (69.6%)
                                                                      -21 - SU: 13-23-1 (36.1%) & ATS: 16-21-0 (43.2%)


                                                                      Notes:


                                                                      Teams that lose by 20 are 17-6 SU & 16-7 ATS the next week, WOW.
                                                                      Teams that lose by a margin of 11-14, seem to do pretty good ATS the following week.
                                                                      ________________________________________ ________


                                                                      Winning Margin the Previous Week and Records for the Following Week.


                                                                      +1 - SU: 25-28-0 (47.2%) & ATS: 26-27-0 (49.1%)
                                                                      +2 - SU: 23-30-0 (43.4%) & ATS: 20-33-0 (37.7%)
                                                                      +3 - SU: 89-95-0 (48.4%) & ATS: 82-94-8 (46.6%)
                                                                      +4 - SU: 39-38-0 (50.6%) & ATS: 36-38-3 (48.6%)
                                                                      +5 - SU: 24-20-0 (54.5%) & ATS: 22-20-2 (52.4%)
                                                                      +6 - SU: 42-33-0 (56.0%) & ATS: 41-31-3 (56.9%)
                                                                      +7 - SU: 70-53-1 (56.9%) & ATS: 65-59-0 (52.4%)
                                                                      +8 - SU: 28-21-0 (57.1%) & ATS: 24-25-0 (49.0%)
                                                                      +9 - SU: 10-3-0 (76.9%) & ATS: 8-5-0 (61.5%)
                                                                      +10 - SU: 42-39-0 (51.9%) & ATS: 37-42-2 (46.8%)
                                                                      +11 - SU: 19-12-0 (61.3%) & ATS: 20-10-1 (66.7%)
                                                                      +12 - SU: 12-8-0 (60.0%) & ATS: 10-10-0 (50.0%)
                                                                      +13 - SU: 20-19-0 (51.3%) & ATS: 17-22-0 (43.6%)
                                                                      +14 - SU: 34-29-0 (54.0%) & ATS: 31-31-1 (50.0%)
                                                                      +15 - SU: 16-5-0 (76.2%) & ATS: 13-8-0 (61.9%)
                                                                      +16 - SU: 12-22-0 (35.3%) & ATS: 14-19-1 (42.4%)
                                                                      +17 - SU: 22-18-0 (55.0%) & ATS: 21-18-1 (53.8%)
                                                                      +18 - SU: 16-20-0 (44.4%) & ATS: 12-24-0 (33.3%)
                                                                      +19 - SU: 5-6-0 (45.5%) & ATS: 4-7-0 (36.4%)
                                                                      +20 - SU: 13-12-0 (52.0%) & ATS: 11-13-1 (45.8%)
                                                                      +21 - SU: 19-20-1 (48.7%) & ATS: 17-23-0 (42.5%)


                                                                      Notes:


                                                                      Teams that won by 4 or less seem to not do very good ATS the following week.
                                                                      For some reason, teams that won or lost by 9, do very well ATS the following week.




                                                                      I will probally expand on this data and look up the Home/Away situations.
                                                                      Comment
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