No, I just had a small lean on the Giants but not enough to play.
Comment
FUqer
SBR MVP
01-22-15
3968
#8
Season = 6-2 for +$560
º«{1}» Falcons +3 +100
Comment
GT21Megatron
SBR Posting Legend
12-20-13
10818
#9
Good work in here bro
Comment
FUqer
SBR MVP
01-22-15
3968
#10
Season = 7-2 = 6.6 Units
º«{1}» Broncos +3 +100
Comment
FUqer
SBR MVP
01-22-15
3968
#11
Season = 8-2 = 7.6 Units
º«{2}» Steelers -5½
Comment
Calgunner23
SBR MVP
01-06-15
1357
#12
Have Pitts/ St.Louis in a teaser. Good luck sir.
Comment
FUqer
SBR MVP
01-22-15
3968
#13
Originally posted by Calgunner23
Have Pitts/ St.Louis in a teaser. Good luck sir.
thx u2 bro
Comment
Trip8z
SBR High Roller
10-28-13
110
#14
Anything fuqer for 4
Comment
FUqer
SBR MVP
01-22-15
3968
#15
I got nothing, sorry.
Comment
FUqer
SBR MVP
01-22-15
3968
#16
º«{2}» Colts -6½ --------------------------------- 9-2 on the season for 9.6 Units I like the Colts tonight to get the job done. Their defense can only get better after last week and the Bills shown yesterday, that their offense isn't that bad by putting up a lot of points on the Patriots. It's not going to be easy without Hilton playing, but I think Luck gets the job done. GLA! Jets are 2-11-2 outside the AFC East.
Colts are 6-0-1 vs spread in game after they lost as a favorite.
Comment
Renegades
SBR Hall of Famer
10-12-11
5290
#17
I think Hilton is playing
Comment
FUqer
SBR MVP
01-22-15
3968
#18
Season = 9-3 for +7.40 Units
Thursday 9/24
Giants -3½
Cousins has yet to win back to back games as a pro.
Giants picked off Cousin 4 times last year.
Giants won 45-14 in Washington on Thursday, Sept. 25th, last season as 3.5 dogs.
Giants won 16-7 at Home on Thursday, Sept. 04th 2008, as 4 point favs.
Giants won last 4 matchups vs Redskins SU & ATS.
Giants 4-0 ATS L4 at home when favored by 4 or less.
The Under is 13-1-1 in the L15 matchups in New York and 7-18-1 since 1996.
The Under is 8-2 since Oct 28, 1990 when the Giants face the Redskins at home after an ATS loss.
Dolphins are on a 1-6 ATS run, 2-5 ATS at home, and 0-5 ATS against the AFC.
----
49ers are 8-0 ATS when visiting a team that has allowed an average of 375 yards of offense season-to-date.
49ers are 8-0 ATS as a dog vs a divisional opponent with non-divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks.
----
Vikings are 7-1 ATS last nine non-conference games and 11-3 ATS home off division home game.
Vikings have won 5 of last 6 at home.
Chargers are 0-10 OU (-14.80 ppg) since Oct 24, 2004 as a dog off a game as an away dog of more than three points.
----
Bengals are 25-13-1 in games with spread of 3 or less since 2007.
Ravens are only 1-4 SU & ATS against the Bengals L5.
----
Tom Brady is 0-9 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since December 2009 when they are favored by more than a TD after a game where they threw for at least 340 yards.
Patriots are 17-0 OU (7.3 ppg) since December 12, 2004 as a home favorite after a road win that went over the total by more than seven points.
Patriots are 7-26 ATS since 2011, when they averaged 5.4 or more yards a play, after gaining 400 or more total yards in their previous game.
----
Raiders are 1-19 during their previous twenty road games.
Raiders have gone 0-9 SU & ATS in their previous nine games following a win, and lost those contests by an average of 21.1 points per game.
----
Jets are the first team in over 20 years to have five takeaways in each of their first two games to start a season.
Jets are on a 5-0 ATS run.
Jets are 4-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Eagles are 5-16-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
----
Colts 13-0 ATS vs a divisional opponent since Dec. 30th 2012.
Colts are 6-1-1 vs spread in game after they lost as a favorite.
Colts are 15-1 ATS after a SU and ATS loss.
Titans are 0-11 ATS vs a divisional opponent since Nov. 10th 2013.
Comment
FUqer
SBR MVP
01-22-15
3968
#20
º«{2}» Packers -5½ ------------------------------ Just 4-5 yesterday for even units, but lost some juice. I risked to much on bad 49ers team and I should of stayed with my gut and went with the Raiders. A little too over aggressive yesterday overall. Some RLM tonight and that scares me of course, but I've been betting MLB all year, with RLM in multiple games daily. Sometimes, it's just a ploy by the bookies, they are well aware of it and they know what happened last Monday. Granted RLM in MLB isn't the same as in NFL. But, that is my hope tonight. If it were so easy to bet on RLM sides, then everyone would do it, sometimes you just got to go with your gut. GLA! SEASON - 14-8 for +7.20 Units
Comment
Slowmotion
SBR High Roller
01-04-13
209
#21
Goodluck bro
Comment
FUqer
SBR MVP
01-22-15
3968
#22
Average MOV for all 32 teams has been 2.41, since the 2005 season.
Teams at home since 2005
Patriots 47-42-2 ATS and MOV = +11.4 ppg Packers 50-35-4 ATS and MOV = +8.7 ppg Ravens 45-38-1 ATS and MOV = +8.6 ppg Seahawks 61-29-1 ATS and MOV = +8.4 ppg Chargers 45-40-0 ATS and MOV = +8.1 ppg Steelers 49-37-2 ATS and MOV = +7.6 ppg Colts 47-42-2 ATS and MOV = +6.2 ppg Saints 44-37-3 ATS and MOV = +6.2 ppg Cowboys 36-48-1 ATS and MOV = +4.4 ppg Broncos 39-49-1 ATS and MOV = +3.8 ppg Eagles 33-51-0 ATS and MOV = +3.6 ppg Vikings 47-37-0 ATS and MOV = +3.2 ppg Giants 41-45-0 ATS and MOV = +3.1 ppg Bears 38-46-4 ATS and MOV = +3.1 ppg 49ers 44-37-4 ATS and MOV = +3.0 ppg Cardinals 49-36-1 ATS and MOV = +2.6 ppg Falcons 44-39-1 ATS and MOV = +2.3 ppg Bengals 39-42-3 ATS and MOV = +2.1 ppg Texans 38-43-3 ATS and MOV = +1.7 ppg Jets 40-41-1 ATS and MOV = +1.4 ppg Panthers 39-45-1 ATS and MOV = +0.4 ppg Bills 42-37-3 ATS and MOV = +0.1 ppg Titans 35-45-2 ATS and MOV = -0.5 ppg Lions 37-41-3 ATS and MOV = -0.7 ppg Chiefs 37-43-2 ATS and MOV = -1.0 ppg Jaguars 34-46-2 ATS and MOV = -1.2 ppg Redskins 33-46-4 ATS and MOV = -1.6 ppg Dolphins 29-49-4 ATS and MOV = -1.7 ppg Browns 40-40-2 ATS and MOV = -2.7 ppg Buccaneers 31-48-4 ATS and MOV = -2.8 ppg Rams 34-47-1 ATS and MOV = -4.8 ppg Raiders 31-51-0 ATS and MOV = -6.0 ppg
Comment
FUqer
SBR MVP
01-22-15
3968
#23
This is a predicted model of how the lines would be on a neutral field, according to the current lines given by Vegas, by subtracting the data found on Home Teams margin of victory since 2005.
Example: Chargers have a 8.1 MOV since 2005 at Home. Then subtract the 7.5 line, leaves you with the Chargers +0.6 on a Neutral Field.
Steelers +10.6 vs Ravens
Dolphins +4.7 vs Jets
Colts -2.3 vs Jaguars
Falcons -4.2 vs Texans
Bucs +0.2 vs Panthers
Bills -5.9 vs Giants
Bears +6.1 vs Raiders
Redskins +4.6 vs Eagles
Bengals -1.9 vs Chiefs
Chargers +0.6 vs Browns
49ers +5.5 vs Packers
Broncos -2.7 vs Vikings
Cardinals -3.9 vs Rams
Seahawks -0.6 vs Lions
-------------------------------
Going by this model, some teams that stand out to me are:
Panthers,Chargers, Packers, and Seahawks
I will prolly do this for a more recent time period, maybe within the last 5 years.
Comment
FUqer
SBR MVP
01-22-15
3968
#24
Teams on the road since 2005. I left it in the same order as above so it's easier to cross reference.
Patriots 51-33-2 ATS and MOV = +7.7 ppg
Packers 48-39-0 ATS and MOV = +1.1 ppg
Ravens 43-50-2 ATS and MOV = -0.6 ppg
Seahawks 37-51-1 ATS and MOV = -2.2 ppg
Chargers 44-41-2 ATS and MOV = +1.7 ppg
Steelers 41-46-1 ATS and MOV = +2.4 ppg
Colts 49-38-2 ATS and MOV = +0.2 ppg
Saints 42-45-2 ATS and MOV = +0.2 ppg
Cowboys 45-38-1 ATS and MOV = +0.2 ppg
Broncos 44-39-0 ATS and MOV = -0.9 ppg
Eagles 47-39-1 ATS and MOV = +0.3 ppg
Vikings 36-44-3 ATS and MOV = -4.0 ppg
Giants 54-34-0 ATS and MOV = +0.1 ppg
Bears 37-39-5 ATS and MOV = -1.6 ppg
49ers 42-40-4 ATS and MOV = -4.4 ppg
Cardinals 41-41-2 ATS and MOV = -5.7 ppg
Falcons 45-37-2 ATS and MOV = -1.6 ppg
Bengals 43-38-4 ATS and MOV = -1.3 ppg
Texans 38-43-2 ATS and MOV = -3.9 ppg
Jets 44-43-1 ATS and MOV = -4.0 ppg
Panthers 42-40-3 ATS and MOV = -0.9 ppg
Bills 40-40-1 ATS and MOV = -6.8 ppg
Titans 40-41-2 ATS and MOV = -4.6 ppg
Lions 31-51-2 ATS and MOV = -8.1 ppg
Chiefs 45-36-3 ATS and MOV = -4.4 ppg
Jaguars 41-40-3 ATS and MOV = -6.5 ppg
Redskins 41-40-3 ATS and MOV = -4.4 ppg
Dolphins 44-36-2 ATS and MOV = -2.0 ppg
Browns 42-37-2 ATS and MOV = -6.9 ppg
Buccaneers 42-39-1 ATS and MOV = -4.9 ppg
Rams 36-44-1 ATS and MOV = -9.0 ppg
Raiders 41-39-1 ATS and MOV = -8.8 ppg
Example: Raiders -3 at Bears
Bears = Difference in MOV at Home(+3.1) vs MOV on the Road(-1.6) for the Current Home Team Example = (4.7)
Raiders = Difference in MOV on the Road(-8.8) vs MOV at Home(-6.0) for the Current Road Team = (-2.8)
Find the difference between numbers above (7.5) and divide that by 2: (7.5/2) = 3.75
3.75 is the suggested home field advantage for the Bears.
Subtract that number from the spread if the home team is favored.
Add that number to the spread if road team is favored.
Road team is favored by 3, so add 3.75 and you get a suggested neutral field line of Raiders -6.75
Bears = Difference in MOV at Home(+0.3) vs MOV on the Road(-1.7) for the Current Home Team = (+2.0)
Raiders = Difference in MOV on the Road(-8.2) vs MOV at Home(-4.5) for the Current Road Team = (-3.7)
Find the difference between numbers above (5.7) and divide that by 2: (5.7/2) = 2.85
2.85 is the suggested home field advantage for the Bears.
Subtract that number from the spread if the home team is favored.
Add that number to the spread if road team is favored.
Road team is favored by 3, so add 2.85 and you get a suggested neutral field line of Raiders -5.85
Comment
FUqer
SBR MVP
01-22-15
3968
#27
Actual Lines ////Suggested Neutral Field Spead
Teams-----------------(2005 2010)
Dolphins +3 vs Jets (-5.85 -6.35)
Jaguars +8½ at Colts (-2.85 -3.45)
Texans +6½ at Falcons (-1.75 -2.55)
Bucs +3 vs Panthers (-4.70 -5.05)
Giants +6 at Bills (-1.05 +0.45)
Bears +3 vs Raiders (-6.75 -5.85)
Redskins +3 vs Eagles (-6.05 -4.15)
Chiefs +4 at Bengals (-0.60 -0.05)
Browns +7½ at Chargers ( -2.20 -1.85)
49ers +8½ vs Packers (-16.0 -18.2)
Vikings +6½ at Broncos (-0.55 -0.40)
Rams +6½ vs Cardinals(-0.25 +1.30)
Lions +9 at Seahawks (-0.00 -1.00)
I got the Packers with the best HF adv. since 2010 and the Rams as the 5th worst road team. My model has the Packers having a 7.80 point HF adv. over the Rams, and an even bigger 10.70 HF adv. since 2014. I also have the Packers at least 6 points better than the Rams, which leaves some good value at -9.
Taking current situations into consideration is important to go along with any model and the Rams could be in a let down spot heading into their bye week, after an upset win at Arizona. I see no let down for the Packers here, as I'm sure they felt they have room for improvement after last week and they take great pride when playing at home. I don't think they let the Rams sneak up on them after last week.
The public seems split so far, I'm sure there is some over reaction from the Ram victory, but that is good for me. I expect the Packers side will probaly pick up steam as the week goes on, but it shouldn't get too out of hand.
The Packers are 4-0 ATS vs the Rams since 2007.
PLAY: º«{2}» PACKERS -9
Comment
FUqer
SBR MVP
01-22-15
3968
#35
SINCE 2010
Losing Margin the Previous Week and Records for the Following Week.
-1 - SU: 31-21-0 (59.6%) & ATS: 27-22-3 (55.1%) -2 - SU: 23-26-0 (46.9%) & ATS: 21-27-1 (43.8%) -3 - SU: 90-89-0 (50.3%) & ATS: 84-88-7 (48.8%) -4 - SU: 41-32-0 (56.2%) & ATS: 44-27-2 (62.0%) -5 - SU: 20-20-0 (50.0%) & ATS: 19-20-1 (48.7%) -6 - SU: 36-34-0 (51.4%) & ATS: 39-30-1 (56.5%) -7 - SU: 57-60-0 (48.7%) & ATS: 59-56-2 (51.3%) -8 - SU: 20-29-0 (40.8%) & ATS: 24-25-0 (49.0%) -9 - SU: 8-5-0 (61.5%) & ATS: 8-4-1 (66.7%) -10 - SU: 25-52-0 (32.5%) & ATS: 31-46-0 (40.3%) -11 - SU: 14-14-0 (50.0%) & ATS: 17-11-0 (60.7%) -12 - SU: 9-11-0 (45.0%) & ATS: 11-9-0 (55.0%) -13 - SU: 15-21-0 (41.7%) & ATS: 19-17-0 (52.8%) -14 - SU: 28-28-1 (50.0%) & ATS: 36-21-0 (63.2%) -15 - SU: 6-13-0 (31.6%) & ATS: 8-10-1 (44.4%) -16 - SU: 10-23-0 (30.3%) & ATS: 16-17-0 (48.5%) -17 - SU: 15-19-0 (44.1%) & ATS: 18-15-1 (54.5%) -18 - SU: 13-22-0 (37.1%) & ATS: 14-21-0 (40.0%) -19 - SU: 3-8-0 (27.3%) & ATS: 3-8-0 (27.3%) -20 - SU: 17-6-0 (73.9%) & ATS: 16-7-0 (69.6%) -21 - SU: 13-23-1 (36.1%) & ATS: 16-21-0 (43.2%)
Notes:
Teams that lose by 20 are 17-6 SU & 16-7 ATS the next week, WOW.
Teams that lose by a margin of 11-14, seem to do pretty good ATS the following week.
________________________________________ ________
Winning Margin the Previous Week and Records for the Following Week.
+1 - SU: 25-28-0 (47.2%) & ATS: 26-27-0 (49.1%) +2 - SU: 23-30-0 (43.4%) & ATS: 20-33-0 (37.7%) +3 - SU: 89-95-0 (48.4%) & ATS: 82-94-8 (46.6%) +4 - SU: 39-38-0 (50.6%) & ATS: 36-38-3 (48.6%) +5 - SU: 24-20-0 (54.5%) & ATS: 22-20-2 (52.4%) +6 - SU: 42-33-0 (56.0%) & ATS: 41-31-3 (56.9%) +7 - SU: 70-53-1 (56.9%) & ATS: 65-59-0 (52.4%) +8 - SU: 28-21-0 (57.1%) & ATS: 24-25-0 (49.0%) +9 - SU: 10-3-0 (76.9%) & ATS: 8-5-0 (61.5%) +10 - SU: 42-39-0 (51.9%) & ATS: 37-42-2 (46.8%) +11 - SU: 19-12-0 (61.3%) & ATS: 20-10-1 (66.7%) +12 - SU: 12-8-0 (60.0%) & ATS: 10-10-0 (50.0%) +13 - SU: 20-19-0 (51.3%) & ATS: 17-22-0 (43.6%) +14 - SU: 34-29-0 (54.0%) & ATS: 31-31-1 (50.0%) +15 - SU: 16-5-0 (76.2%) & ATS: 13-8-0 (61.9%) +16 - SU: 12-22-0 (35.3%) & ATS: 14-19-1 (42.4%) +17 - SU: 22-18-0 (55.0%) & ATS: 21-18-1 (53.8%) +18 - SU: 16-20-0 (44.4%) & ATS: 12-24-0 (33.3%) +19 - SU: 5-6-0 (45.5%) & ATS: 4-7-0 (36.4%) +20 - SU: 13-12-0 (52.0%) & ATS: 11-13-1 (45.8%) +21 - SU: 19-20-1 (48.7%) & ATS: 17-23-0 (42.5%)
Notes:
Teams that won by 4 or less seem to not do very good ATS the following week.
For some reason, teams that won or lost by 9, do very well ATS the following week.
I will probally expand on this data and look up the Home/Away situations.