NFL betting against the public 1st three weeks

[Jupiter333]

I did a study of how teams did when they had <=41% of the public on them in the first three weeks of the season. I used covers percentages because they have no reason to falsify their data. I excluded Thursday and Monday night football.

Year wins losses

2014 15 8
2013 16 7
2012 15 8
2011 16 9
2010 14 11
_______________
Total 76 43


Home favorites Home dogs Away favorites Away dogs Total

10-5 39-20 0-0 27-18 76-43


week wins losses

1 23 14
2 25 14
3 28 15
________________
Total 76 43


Consider zigging when everyone else is zagging. Good luck.

[dfish]

Not a bad angle for the first few weeks

[jkladikos]

seems solid...public betting towards one side will make last minute bets optimal for the other side
key is to just use covers betting percentages as im sure it varies

[a4u2fear]

Week 4 was a loser?

[Jupiter333]

week 4 was a loser last 5 years

week wins losses

4 15 21
5 18 14
6 13 13
7 16 16
8 14 14
9 14 15
10 12 18
11 11 20
12 22 12
13 18 13
14 17 16
15 16 11
16 11 14

The conclusion is.......early season results change from the year prior and the public bases its handicapping on what happened the year before. After week 3, people have gotten a look at teams and the playing field between the books and the public is levelled. Home dogs are a good play when <=4!% of the public are on them in weeks 1-3 and 12-16. Away dogs have been good plays the first half of the season.

Doing statistical analysis on stats like third down conversion percentage, yards per play, turnover margin, tend to revert to the mean after week 4. In other words, things will not continue to stay the same in those above mentioned stats 55-60% of the time. For example, if one PLAYS the team with the average turnover margin differential DISADVANTAGE to their opponent of >.5/game and is off a loss, that cover rate is 55.3% (857-693-28 against the spread, weeks 5-16) the past 26 years.

[SondyR]

Good stuff mah nicca

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah I tried this last year for just the first week and had some great success. It also helps you weed out the crap teams who are overrated by bookies like the Saints.

[Jupiter333]

public consensus

As of Tuesday, going AGAINST >59% public consensus in week 1 (using covers consensus data) are listed below. Or, to state it another way, we are playing ON teams that have <41% of the public betting on them. Remember that we are using only Sunday games.

1) Ravens +4' 38%
2) Saints +2' 39%
3) Browns +3, 39%
4) Rams +4, 39%
5) Redskins +4, 36%
6) Bills +2', 36%
7) Jacksonville +3, 33%
8) Bears +6', 33%

BOL to everyone.

[BrewMan]

Great info...thanks!

[tinhphai]

Good stuffs ... thanks and GL

[Jowframs]

As of Tuesday, going AGAINST >59% public consensus in week 1 (using covers consensus data) are listed below. Or, to state it another way, we are playing ON teams that have <41% of the public betting on them. Remember that we are using only Sunday games.

1) Ravens +4' 38%
2) Saints +2' 39%
3) Browns +3, 39%
4) Rams +4, 39%
5) Redskins +4, 36%
6) Bills +2', 36%
7) Jacksonville +3, 33%
8) Bears +6', 33%

BOL to everyone.

Notice.....They are all Dogs....Kinda Scary
Thanx for the info!

[cutter341975]

Well..Packers WON..by 10 or more...Seattle is gonna murk the Rams...Miami sux..but Id give them a win by 6 or more over the even suckier Porkskins..or redchops or watever.

[cutter341975]

Well..Packers WON..by 10 or more...Seattle is gonna murk the Rams...Miami sux..but Id give them a win by 6 or more over the even suckier Porkskins..or redchops or watever.

Typo*...Packers WIN...by 10 or more.

[Jupiter333]

To the person who PMed me

I can't reply privately because I don't have >40 posts.

In the first paragraph I mentioned that I used covers consensus to get the public betting percentages in my research.