Anyone want to put together the perfect 3 team 10 pt Teaser together?

**Ganchrow** · 10-17-06, 04:21 PM

Just out of curiosity, imgv, what would you guage the % chances of each of Jax and Indy winning their respective games SU?

**imgv94** · 10-17-06, 04:27 PM

JAX 90%

INDY 95%

How about you?

**Bulldog** · 10-17-06, 04:54 PM

Hey IMG, Ill take a shot...
I think Seattle +3.5 at home would be the best choice to complete that teaser...
Sounds good to me...

**imgv94** · 10-17-06, 05:02 PM

Seattle never loses @ Home you make a great point..

**Doc JS** · 10-17-06, 05:12 PM

Does anyone see Wash who couldn't even beat the Titans @ Home going to Indy and defeating Peyton and Co?

imgv,
Are you at all worried about the Colts inability to stop the run?

So what will be our 3rd selection, let's be smart with this...

I would second the Seahawks pick. Seattle getting 3.5 at home where they pretty much never lose looks good to me.

The other team I'd offer for consideration is Pittsburgh getting +7.5 in Atlanta. I don't think Atlanta will have great success running against Pittsburgh. And Vick can't beat them with just his arm.

Just my .02 worth!

Doc JS

**Bulldog** · 10-17-06, 05:14 PM

Right...
And even it they lose (which I dont see happening) it shouldnt be for more than a FG...
Plus the Vikings are worse than their record imo...

**dave11486** · 10-17-06, 05:45 PM

Carolina +13 is my favorite, #2 NYG +13.5, #3 Sea +3.5

**nosuzieno** · 10-17-06, 05:50 PM

I like Clev +14.5, coming off bye week and facing a Broncos team that could only muster 13 at home against Oak. Broncos have only scored more than 14 once and that was 17 at NE...

**psycho44** · 10-17-06, 06:07 PM

Indiana +41.5

Ohio St hasn't scored more than 38 points in all 7 of their wins. They will need to put together 42 points if the can shut out Indiana, so realistically they will need to score 50 points.

**bmac** · 10-17-06, 06:25 PM

here is a teaser i was looking at. would cost some $$$ but may be worth it? your thoughts?

4 Team Teaser
New England Patriots +7
Philadelphia Eagles +7½
Cincinnati Bengals +9½
Denver Broncos +8

**bmac** · 10-17-06, 06:41 PM

I ate lunch at CB+potts the other weekend and sat next to KubiaK (he was in town to see his son play). I talked to him some....He looked depressed. I assume it was because the texans suck so bad. lol .... I don't really see them beating JAX.

**Ganchrow** · 10-17-06, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by imgv94

JAX 90%

INDY 95%

How about you?

Well considering I don't bet football and couldn't even tell you offhand either teams' record, I'm not sure how my own appraisal of the respective win probabilities would be particularly relevant.

Nevertheless, if you really pushed me, I'd defer to the skills of Pinnacle's lines makers and at this exact moment in time give each of them a rather placid 80.67% probability of straight up victory.

My only point is that when you consider that you can currently pick up either of the Jax or Indy money lines at -450, (implying, based on your probability estimates, enormous expected returns of 10% and 16% respectively), you may want to give serious consideration to using some of the funds you might otherwise have you used on this as of yet incomplete teaser to lay some money on each of the two straight-up bets. The advantages of doing this is would be threefold:

You can vary the relative size of your bets such that you have more exposure to the superior Indy line in accordance with Kelly)
You don't lock yourself into betting all the proceeds of your first wager (should you win it) on the outcome of the second but rather can tailor your bet size to your own risk and bankroll characteristics (once again, in accordance with Kelly).
You don't need to force a third leg of the teaser, and in fact could even lay down a sizable wager immediately. If the lines truly are as grossly mispriced as you've hypothesized it would seem likely that by the time you've finally decided on the third leg, one or both of the lines you've identified will have moved against you.

Another possibility would be just parlaying the two money lines at -203 without any tease. While this would only be more Kelly-friendly than the 10-point 3-team teaser insofar as you'd have one fewer team with which to contend, there could be further advantages (or dis) depending on the actual teaser price.

Anyway, just looking out for you.

**RickySteve** · 10-17-06, 07:46 PM

I nominate Ganchrow for sainthood.

**Siuman** · 10-17-06, 07:48 PM

I gotta go with Sea at home, even without Alexander

**imgv94** · 10-17-06, 08:32 PM

Ganchrow

Interesting input there.. I just checked out the parlay odds at Pinnacle and it came out @ -215. Which is not bad considering both wagers should be easy winners.

Also I like how you labeled it "force a third leg" which in past has bit me in the ass. I can recall numerous times where the "forced play" was the one that eventually lost..

Great stuff Ganch and RickySteve is correct you are good!!!

**JDK192** · 10-17-06, 08:58 PM

I don't do teasers but I'll give some input. I think Indy will win but I don't think it's anymore of a "sure thing" than Chi was over Arizona last night. Let's not forget that Indy probably should have lost to the lowly Jets and the lowly Titans that beat Wsh last week. The only game Ind wasn't in danger of losing outright all season was against Houston. If you're doing 10 pt teasers I'd much rather have Wash +20 than Indy pk. Wash can run the ball and control the clock.

Anyway I would 2nd Doc JS Pit +7.5 pick as the best NFL play.

**josebla89** · 10-17-06, 08:59 PM

Guys Your Forgetting About The One Game Thats Pretty Much A Lock In The Pathers I'm Mean Come On! They Are 3.5 Pt Underdogs When They Should Be Favored This Game Is A Lock As It Is And If You Tease It You Can Bet Your House On It

**dave11486** · 10-18-06, 12:54 PM

Originally posted by psycho44

Indiana +41.5

Ohio St hasn't scored more than 38 points in all 7 of their wins. They will need to put together 42 points if the can shut out Indiana, so realistically they will need to score 50 points.

That is a good bet. The Buckeyes won't run up the score. 5 touchdowns is where they stop. I like the under 62 better. There is no way IU scores more that 14 points. Bucks won't score more that 42 in that case. So, you cover. This is my lock as far as my teasers go.

**imgv94** · 10-18-06, 03:20 PM

ON ROAD

OR

AT HOME

**Italia_NYC** · 10-18-06, 03:26 PM

LOL......

You have to take Peyton. I don't think it's close.

**JDK192** · 10-18-06, 03:36 PM

LOL. No doubt. Too bad it's not Brunell vs Manning then we could use the "L" word. It's a shame Indy's pathetic run D has to be involved in the game as well.

**Doc JS** · 10-18-06, 04:17 PM

Originally posted by JDK192

It's a shame Indy's pathetic run D has to be involved in the game as well.

Anthony McFarland may help the Indy run defense.

God knows, he can't hurt it! lol

Doc JS

**imgv94** · 10-18-06, 05:14 PM

If you still have doubts about Indy winning here you go..

The Redskins secondary is banged up horribly.

From NFL.com
Washington Redskins cornerback Carlos Rogers' broken thumb will keep him out of the game against the Indianapolis Colts, further depleting a struggling secondary.

Redskins were blown out by Dallas and the Giants on the road and didn't score an Offensive TD in either game.. I believe it is asking alot for the Redskins to go into INDY with a banged up secondary,terrible QB and defeat a top 5 NFL team..

If Indy loses this I would be shocked!!!!

I think we have to come reality that the Redskins are just not very good..

**JDK192** · 10-18-06, 06:09 PM

I think in a 10pt teaser you win either way with the Wsh/Ind game. I'm just saying personally I'd rather have Wsh +20 than Ind pk, just as if I was going to bet the game I'd take Wsh +10 way before I'd ever take Ind -10 when they can't stop the run. There is a very simple formula to beat the colts, it's called "ball control". If not for untimely turnovers, a punt return, and late Manning heroics, Indy could just as easily be 1-4 as they are 5-0. But Indy is a good team and they usually win close ballgames, Wsh isn't a very good team and they usually lose close ballgames.

Sportsbooks like nothing more than people that bet teasers, especially more than 2-teamers. Anyway, Good luck on your teaser. I mean it GL.

**imgv94** · 10-18-06, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by JDK192

Sportsbooks like nothing more than people that bet teasers, especially more than 2-teamers. Anyway, Good luck on your teaser. I mean it GL.

Is that why Canbet doesn't offer teaser wagers anymore on football?

**primo_skillz** · 10-18-06, 06:32 PM

got to agree with ya here,

colts have played some pretty close games. time to break out of it and this is the perfect time for peyton to have a fieldday.

play the colts!

**JDK192** · 10-18-06, 06:51 PM

Don't know IMGV don't play at canbet and don't know their business model. I'd bet my left nut it had nothing to do with people winning too much at 3-team 10pt NFL teasers. Ask anyone good with sports and probablilities, the only way you have a chance to win long term with teasers are 2-teamers when teasing over a key number. They are called teasers for a reason.

**imgv94** · 10-18-06, 06:58 PM

Here is my solid 2 teamer

Sea PK
Indy -2.5

JDK I know you like it...

I don't know about other people but I have done great with 3TM 10pt Teasers in the past.

Alot of people don't know how to play teasers.. But it is a known fact that the books are down this year on teasers so far.. Keyword SO FAR...

Good conversation JDK. Hopefully the new kids here read this and learn something...

**JDK192** · 10-18-06, 07:13 PM

I think that 2-teamer is a good bet (as far as teasers go).

Agreed good conversation. I grew up the son of a bookie so I was taught at a young age that teasers are bad bets, and saw teasers pay for my brother's and my own education.
I don't think they are always bad but if betting them I would at least live by these rules for football teasers

1) never tease line and O/U in same game (almost always a chase play sun or mon night)
2) If it doesn't tease over a key number (pk,3,7) it's not worth doing
3) O/U teasers are statistically bad in the NFL

Just my 2 cents

**Italia_NYC** · 10-18-06, 07:17 PM

I guess it's just a matter of preference. I have made quite a profitable hobby betting teasers and only teasers. That’s all I play. Perhaps because I also usually only bet the underdog, I’m already getting points, and love the idea of getting 10 more. Either way, it has been extremely successful for me.

**Siuman** · 10-18-06, 07:53 PM

I must say this has been some eye opening stuff for me being a small time "action" guy. I am going to rethink my 3 team teas....I think the 2 team teas of Indy and Seat, might be the better way to go....Italia NYC I am interested to know your teasers for this week.

**Italia_NYC** · 10-18-06, 08:58 PM

Originally posted by Siuman

I must say this has been some eye opening stuff for me being a small time "action" guy. I am going to rethink my 3 team teas....I think the 2 team teas of Indy and Seat, might be the better way to go....Italia NYC I am interested to know your teasers for this week.

A bit early in the week for me to give a definitive answer, though right now I will tell you what I am eyeing;

Jacksonville-PK (I learned my lesson last week; Houston can be beat by 20 points on a weekly basis)

Washington +19.5 (I expect the Colts to win, but they haven't been blowing anyone out and I think as bad as the Redskins may be, they should cover this spread)

Minnesota +17 (Seattle hasn't been blowing anyone out either, and they have their own problems; I expect the Vikes to play them tough)

This may change come Sunday morning, but this is the direction I am headed.

**Augustus** · 10-18-06, 09:40 PM

Denver/Cleveland Under 41

**josebla89** · 10-18-06, 10:16 PM

BMAC take your cincy pick out you'll get way more value taking carolina. in the unlikely event that cincy wins it wont be by more that a fg. I guess you might be ok either way but if you take carolina you wont have to sweat it