SOS Poiints to Super Bowl Winner?
How much does SOS factor into your prediction of the Super Bowl winner? I feel that this is maybe the prime indicator pointing to the Patriots as the winner of this game. A stats. comparison might make them appear the lessor team but in reality they are stronger team based on how they have prepared versus more difficult opponents (esp. stronger QB's) and how these games have refined them for this match-up. In effect, the stats. create an illusion of Seattle possibly being a stronger bet than they are for this particular game. New England will have the capacity to attack and react better to Seattle than the Seahawks will to them. (IMO). BOL to all.
-
-
Doesn't SEA have a higher SOS than NE? I'm seeing SEA .525 & NE .514. Where are you getting your numbers?Comment -
I utilize a consensus of sources I respect and my own assessment and knowledge of QB and Coaching capabilities. I don't believe you should go by any one source in analyzing teams, players or match-ups. If you trust your own knowledge (based on years of experience) you should apply that to acquired info. as well in forming your judgments.Comment -
Aren't you talking about strength of schedule? How can your assessment and knowledge of coach and qb, as you mentioned, have anything to do with SOS?Comment -
No offense, OP, but you are just stringing together buzzwords and aren't making much sense.Comment -
Maybe I should have used the terms "quality of opposition" instead of SOS but isn't that what SOS measures on a team by team match-up basis? SOS is related to strength of team, team game outcomes, and overall measuring of game results versus differing levels of teams (usually for ranking purposes). This is how knowledge of coach and qb are connected to SOS. It is also why it might be a good idea to consider how different challenges might prepare teams in different and possibly better ways?
"The hammer breaks glass but forges steel."Comment -
It is sort of interesting to me that I'm hearing so many refer to Seattle as if this is the same strength team as the 2013 rendition. That was truly a great team but (unfortunately for them) in 2014 the Seahawks let key offensive and defensive pieces get away. Their offense is more limited and their defense is weaker (DL and Sec). They were more explosive and dangerous last year because of these now missing players and although they posted good numbers this year, their numbers are somewhat illusory because of playing weaker opposition and many weak QB's. (hence- SOS & Team Opposition analysis as the key variable).
The Seahawks will rely too much on Marshawn Lynch to produce their positive offensive outcome. This is where they are very offensively limited and I believe where they will fall short in the Super Bowl. I must also add that by all rights, but for weak-ass coaching on Mike McCarthy's part- they shouldn't even be playing this weekend.
Comment -
You've got to be kidding- were we even watching the same game slacker00? GB gave that game away thinking their lead was safe- "stupid -ass coaching" pure and simple. As for the picks, we could go back and forth with the what ifs and but for questions all day. If you're relying on RW to beat NE with the pass-good luck with that.Comment -
Slacker00- As a matter of fact, that is exactly what they will have to do to win (pass effectively). That is one of the key reasons I see them losing.Comment -
Slacker- I feel that RW is a very good QB but he does have some things that aren't as good as they will need to beat New England in this particular game. I don't know about you but I evaluate every game on a game-by-game situational basis. RW in most cases will be a guy you would want at the helm but in this game (with his receiver set) I wouldn't want to rely on that element to beat the Patriots.Comment -
Agree here on Pats think they pull this off. Like their size and speed in front 7 as well to help neutralize Hags main strength the run gm and keeping Wilson in pocket much as possible. Not saying they stop Beast mode that's a tall order but keeping him at or just shy of that key 100 yard mark seems to be a big weakness for Seattle when that occurs.Comment -
In this case the Seattle offense is not nearly as strong as many seem to think and not strong enough to win this particular game. IMO- people rely too much on numbers and not enough on their knowledge and understanding of what they see with their own eyes. I've seen Seattle enough to know that they are going to have a hard time doing the things necessary (offensively) to win. Yes, there are better bets to be had than choosing a side in this game but if people do want a side- IMO it is New England.Comment -
Well another thing my eyes told me in nfc championship was Seattle's defense is great but not as elite or invincible as people make out. Seen them get exposed before but like you say OP they do play in a div with weak QB play overall and have not fared nearly as well vs better signal callers especially those with a run gm to help balance things.Comment -
I came away from the GB game being even more impressed with SEA's D. SEA held arguably the NFL's best QB to 22 points when those 5 turnovers where putting GB in great field position over and over. How many times did GB have it at the 1 yard line and had to settle for a FG? Not only that, SEA never quit. Sherman and Thomas were playing on maybe 1 arm each and still forced GB to kick a a 48 yard FG to force OT. Maybe one of the most heroic defensive performances I've ever seen. 1 TD isn't going to be enough to beat SEA.Comment -
Yeah cannot argue that Slacker but I did see GB struggle in red zone a few other games this year. Worst was vs the fukkin Saints of all teams lol. Had their tt ov that gm think it was like 26.5 and bet it live if I remember right. Fukkers just kept kicking 3's and even had a couple turnovers in enemy territory if I rememeber right and landed on 23. SmhComment -
I'm expecting a real good gm either way honestly. If Seattle wins it certainly would not surprise me just a couple angles I like here for NE and think they finish this time after last 2 nut crushers they lost by a play in each. Bol boys should be a wild one to end year with!Comment -
7-7 (6-7 ATS) +133 Units
This is one of the more anticipated Super Bowls I have looked at in a while in what amounts to a matchup of one of the most successful dynasties of this era, the NE Patriots vs. a current dynasty-in-the-making, the Seattle Seahawks. Both teams have gotten to this point by way of home-field advantage although the conference championship game result were on opposite ends. Currently looks about 72/28 betting geared toward NE at a pk line.
NE Offense vs. SEA Defense
With NE coming off a shredding of the Colts defense by Blount, you would expect the Pats to stay with the same gameplan, correct? In my opinion, that won't be the case as it is well-known just how tough it is to run consistently at the Seahawks D and the Pats do not want to become predictable as the game goes along. GB actually succeeded in staying with that strategy but it can just be the fact Seattle was not on their game that day.
Im expecting Pats to run a lot of 5 WR sets to try to counteract the pass rush. They likely will try to run multiple rub routes to open throwing lanes for Brady to get the ball out quick. Look for the Pats to attack the SEA nickelbacks Maxwell and Lane by opening up the field by running deep routes down the field to occupy Sherman, Thomas, and Chancellor. They will do this in an effort to also get Gronk in one-one-one situations. They also may run Blount occassionally in order to keep the pass rushers honest.
In 2012 the Pats used a similar strategy and moved the ball effectively all game as Brady racked up over 300 yds receiving outside of the fact Sherman wasnt playing then. Last yr the Broncos failed to have success spreading the field but most of it was because they were destroyed by the pass rush up front by Mebane, Avril, Bennett and company. The key for the Pats here becomes their pass protection and how it will hold up during the course of 4 quarters.
SEA Offense vs. NE Defense
Russell Wilson back in his 2nd consecutive SB is ironically coming off his worst performance this yr. having been stifled and confused by the GB defense for 3.5 quarters only to lead a miraculous comeback. A couple things to take note of, is that there are a couple of ingredients missing from their offense from a yr ago, Harvin, Tate, and Zach Miller are gone as well as having lost speedster Richardson couple weeks ago. The bread and butter of their offense, Marshawn Lynch looks to put his Beast Mode display to work in this game.
Theres really nothing tricky about the Hawks offense. They go as Lynch goes and a lot of their success is dependent on their zone-blocking principles to find cutback lanes for Lynch to run through or use Wilson as a read-option threat on the backside. The rest is improvisation from Wilson who can either pick up 1st downs with his legs or throw on the run. Their top target outside is Baldwin and Kearse is their downfield threat.
From the Pats perspective, look for them to stay disciplined instead of trying to sell out to stop Lynch. Why? Because this is exactly the formula the Hawks use to try to create misdirection plays with Wilson's legs or Lynch's cutback vision to create big plays. For the most part I think the Pats trust their front seven can be effective as they were terrific vs the run in the 2nd half of the year. Against Wilson the Pats are likely to use their ends to set the edge and keep Russell inside the pocket where he is not a very effective passer, only 23rd in QBR in-the-pocket in 2014. Look for multiple LBs Ninkovich, Collins, and Hightower to shadow Wilson if he should decide to take off for the open field.
In the secondary Revis gets the assignment on Baldwin and it will be up to Luke Wilson, Kearse, and Lockette to find open spaces in the defense but it wont be easy as the Pats secondary is capable of covering for extended play when Wilson scrambles out of the pocket.
As difficult it is to pick a winner here I am going to side with the Patriots because of a key advantage. I believe that Belicheck will have an easier time figuring out how to contain the Hawks offense because they are not complex on offense and for a defensive genius like Belicheck he is also more than likely to throw a few disguises at Wilson and test the young QB in a game of chess.
At the same time as much respect as I give the Hawks defense I feel though GB exposed a few weaknesses with their defense and if a strategy is employed effectively by spreading the field and negating much of the pass rush Brady has the arm and accuracy to make the quick throws into the open spaces. I feel that the Hawks are also not as consistent on pass rushing this yr because of the Mebane injury and having lost Clemons and few others. Also it remains to be seen how Sherman and Thomas will hold up not only against the pass but in run support and it may affect their bump-n-run strategy and how well itll work with one healthy arm.
Throw in the the deflate-gate scandal and the bulletin board material that provides Pats players more fuel for motivation I believe that will have them even more focused. The Pats have a shutdown secondary capable of dominating for long stretches which was the Broncos' Achiles Heel last yr.. I also feel like the right side of SEA's O-line is vulnerable and Belicheck will send some pressure that way no doubt. In the end I expect a great game with possible lead changes and ties but like New England to claim another Super Bowl victory and deny a repeat to the Seahawks. GL to all.
The Play is New England PK 100 Unit PlayComment -
Now I know weren't watching the same game Slacker00, lol. You are considering that Rodgers was less than 100% healthy aren't you? You don't think that affected Green Bay's offensive threat and overall offensive capabilities? Seattle was lucky as hell to catch Rodgers when he had a bad wheel.Comment -
I think the OP was right on coaching assessment with McCarthy being a dumbass at times. Played a bit conservative should have gone for it that 2nd time near goal line. And seriously Beli/Brady I don't think would be afraid to throw at or attack the "boogeyman Sherman" like Pack were unwilling to do standing out there nursing a broken wing. I give Seattle credit for hanging in there but that was more the Pack beating themselves. And I know Sherman is great but how do you not go after him all gimped up in that gm?!?Comment
