Am I missing something?

[CarloTwoGuns]

Colts only favored by 3.5?

[strictlypaypal]

jesus, all these dumbfounded threads on how colts are only favored by X amount of points look like it's leading straight towards a Texans blowout

[CarloTwoGuns]

With my luck thats exactly what will happen lol

[THam12]

Texans defense at home is serious.

[slacker00]

jesus, all these dumbfounded threads on how colts are only favored by X amount of points look like it's leading straight towards a Texans blowout

Yeah, I don't get it either. That's a lot of wood to lay on the road in division with a bad D against a decent D.

[KSmooth4U]

Texans D is good at home?? The bills had 330 yards of offense and EJ Manual had 225 yds and 2 TD's... Colts roll in this game by 7+...

[slacker00]

Texans D is good at home?? The bills had 330 yards of offense and EJ Manual had 225 yds and 2 TD's... Colts roll in this game by 7+...

You left out the part about EJ's 2 picks in a Bills loss, landing EJ on the bench replaced by formerly retired Kyle Orton.

[KSmooth4U]

You really think Luck is gonna throw those picks? Especially basically handing it off to JJ Watt?

[strictlypaypal]

Luck is very streaky, he can easily throw those picks in this game. Good thing with him though is he never loses confidence and will keep firing. I'd still take colts ATS if I had to choose but this definitely won't be a walk in the park like everyone is saying

[POOLSIDE]

With my luck thats exactly what will happen lol

Worst pun. Boo.

[Unwritten Law]

I hate betting on and against Luck.

[slacker00]

You really think Luck is gonna throw those picks? Especially basically handing it off to JJ Watt?

??? If Luck starts handing it off to JJ Watt, he's gonna be in a lot of trouble. lol.

[KSmooth4U]

If he starts handing off to Watt we will know the fix is in

[POOLSIDE]

He's talking about EJ's "handoff" to JJ. Stay with us, guys.

[SharpAngles]

Jumped on -3 +105 this morning but see its back to -2.5 -115 on 5D. Must've gotten pounded.

[slacker00]

He's talking about EJ's "handoff" to JJ. Stay with us, guys.

Alright. I didn't know what he was getting at.



JJ Watt is a great player, there can be no argument.

[KSmooth4U]

Look at the QB's the Texans have beat... RG3, Derek Carr and EJ Manuel... Houstons offense will not be able to keep up with the Colts... I could be totally wrong but I think the colts roll and make it 5 straight Thurs night blowouts...

[LT Profits]

I never saw this line hit 3.5? Been bouncing between 2.5-3 as far as I can tell.

[la cara]

Books prolly scared of a middle

[LT Profits]

Books prolly scared of a middle

Right but the OP said "only" -3.5. I never saw 3.5 anywhere.

[TankHankerous]

-3 (-105) for me

Go Colts

[iHateBetting12]

Right but the OP said "only" -3.5. I never saw 3.5 anywhere.

Texans +3.5 (-135) on Bovada

[LT Profits]

Texans +3.5 (-135) on Bovada

Meh...they don't count. Especially at -135. I would actually consider Houston at a real +3.5.

[BILLY MEIER]

I remember last year when the colts went to houston boy did they play like shit in the first half , They ended up winning at the end, ill just wait and bet live on this game

[POOLSIDE]

I remember last year when the colts went to houston boy did they play like shit in the first half , They ended up winning at the end, ill just wait and bet live on this game

Doubt Houston's coach has a heart attack at halftime again.

[Shocked]

ROMO beat them! Luck is the lock of the year! Hah

[pacocn]

Doubt Houston's coach has a heart attack at halftime again.

Has Vegas posted any odds on this prop?

[la cara]

Meh...they don't count. Especially at -135. I would actually consider Houston at a real +3.5.

I could see this hit -4 before gametime... too many people love luck for this not to be drilled

[mtofell]

Any of you guys try index/spread betting?? For example on 5Dimes, usually on game day, they post a bunch of different +/- for various things. For example, with a game like this where the Colts could run away with it you could put a wager down on the normal spread of 2.5. Then, as an example, you can get +220 for Colts -9. Then, maybe +340 for Colts -15.

It seems like in the NFL when teams win they often roll and cover by lots of points. I made a good chunk on both the NE/Chiefs game and the Vikings/Packers game. Chiefs were +3 and won by 27. That's 30 points you can capitalize on. Packers -8.5 and won by 32. So, there's 23.5 points.

Reason I bring this up in the Colts game seems like it has a possibility to go this way. Of course, nothing's for sure but it seems like there is a lot of value in some of these longshot bets.

[POOLSIDE]

Any of you guys try index/spread betting?? For example on 5Dimes, usually on game day, they post a bunch of different +/- for various things. For example, with a game like this where the Colts could run away with it you could put a wager down on the normal spread of 2.5. Then, as an example, you can get +220 for Colts -9. Then, maybe +340 for Colts -15.

It seems like in the NFL when teams win they often roll and cover by lots of points. I made a good chunk on both the NE/Chiefs game and the Vikings/Packers game. Chiefs were +3 and won by 27. That's 30 points you can capitalize on. Packers -8.5 and won by 32. So, there's 23.5 points.

Reason I bring this up in the Colts game seems like it has a possibility to go this way. Of course, nothing's for sure but it seems like there is a lot of value in some of these longshot bets.

First off, this is assuming you're on the right side to begin with. Sure, spreads are indicative of who should win, but obviously not of who will win. Take that KC/Pats game for example. Blowout, yes. But not by the favorite.

With that said, let's say that we assume someone will win by a blowout. We can define that as what? More than 14 points? Who's to say it'll be Indy doing the blowing out?

You've only got a roughly 50/50 chance (this percentage obviously changes the higher the spread is) of being on the team that does the blowing out. So, take whatever odds you're getting for the -14.5s and cut them in half. Then apply the following information.

• The top three most common margins of victory are 3 points(15.67%), 7 points (9.67%) and 10 points (6.03%). This is somewhat unsurprising as 3 and 7 are the points for field goals and touchdowns.

• 50.52% of games end in a single digit margin of victory (9 or less points).

• 63.96% of games end in a margin of victory of under two touchdowns (13 or less points).

[Barnes & Whine]

But it's Thursday Poolside!, Throw that out the window. Texans win by 30 and Luck throws 4 picks!

[LT Profits]

Colts are without both starting guards, could be an issue vs. J.J.!

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-betting/2973003-nfl-player-news-week-6-midweek-edition.html

[LT Profits]

I could see this hit -4 before gametime... too many people love luck for this not to be drilled

I don't even think it hits -3.5 (at normal juice), and if it does, it would be an indication that the Colts will roll. Books don't want to cross the -3 in a heavily bet prime time game and expose themselves to that middle.

[BeanTownClown88]

IDK if its how we talk to Colts up or if its how they think of themselves but the last I checked they feel like they have a chance to compete for a title. It shouldn't matter the spot or the place or time..they have a divisional game vs houston tonight and great teams put their division foes away. Not saying the Colts are great but they have a swagger and should win..Houston doesnt have a QB

[navyblue81]

Road teams have not fared well historically on TNF. Short week and travel is not a good combo. Road teams are 1-3 so far this year on TNF (with those 3 losses being blowouts) and the one win wasn't much of a road game (NY to Was).