Week 3 RLM - Trap City, or just go with the better team?

[Spedizzo]

The data below is taking from VegasInsider and concerns noteworthy RLM.


San Diego @ Buffalo - 90% of public on San Diego ML, and 62% is on San Diego ATS, yet the line moves from pick-em to San Diego +2.5?


Dallas @ St. Louis - 94% of public on Dallas ML, and 92% is on Dallas ATS, yet the line moves from Dallas -2 to Dallas -1 at some books?


Greenbay @ Detroit - 89% is on Greenbay ML and 71% is on Greenbay ATS, yet the line moves from Greenbay +1.5 to Greenbay +2.5?


There were a couple other games were minor RLM was evident, or where the line has not moved at all despite a heavy % of public on them.

Chargers, Dallas, and Greenbay all on paper seem like sure things.

Should we read in between the lines?

Sharps, insight us!

[Spedizzo]

And yes, I know all 3 of them are on the road.

However;

San Diego @ Buffalo - You cannot ignore Buffalo's incompetence at the Quarterback position. Phillip Rivers is tearing it up and to be gifted points seems very odd. Buffalo should be 1-1, and San Diego should be 2-0 in my opinion. I know the trip from San Diego to Buffalo is rough, but I expected the line to be San Diego -3.

Dallas @ St. Louis - St. Louis barely got by the Bucs and have a rookie at Quarterback. Dallas defense this year is a huge unknown, but their offensive line has mauled Tennessee on the road, and has run up San Francisco's gut. If they run the ball and Romo doesn't throw into triple coverage, Dallas should win easily. I expected this line to be Dallas -4.5. Is Vegas overcompensating for Brian Quick's impressive game and the possibility of this rookie QB shining bright?

Greenbay @ Detroit - Greenbay has not looked impressive, getting stomped out by Seattle on the road and just getting by the Jets. However, Greenbay tends to play well against Detroit, and Detroit does not have an impressive resume beyond beating the helpless Giants. They only put up 7 points on the road against a tough Carolina defense. Greenbay is having problems protecting Aaron Rodgers, evident by their last 2 games, and Detroit has a fierce defensive front. This is the closest game out of the 3 in my opinion, but I would have still expected the line to be around Greenbay -2, not give them points with RLM despite public presence.

If I had to make picks this week, taking RLM into account, I would take:

Chargers
Dallas
Detroit

[SteveRyan]

Yes, the line on the SD Buff game doesn't see to make much sense. Good catch. It looks like it opened on Sunday right in the middle of the game vs Seattle so the move to -1 might have something to do with how SD played in that game. Still, there is RLM from that point on.

[OMGChoGath]

I will be on Detroit, not sure about the other two yet might get on San Diego.

[ram1502]

How can you say at this point which is the better team? I think buffalo is solid, especially at home. And there's a stat somewhere that supports fading a team in their next game after beating the super bowl champs. The definition of a let down spot, imho. GL regardless

[strictlypaypal]

thoughts on 49ers -3 vs a backup qb? I thought line would move but nothing so far, Stanton confirmed to start for AZ

[2daBank]

How can you say at this point which is the better team? I think buffalo is solid, especially at home. And there's a stat somewhere that supports fading a team in their next game after beating the super bowl champs. The definition of a let down spot, imho. GL regardless

i mentioned somewhere i dont really understand why EJ gets so much hate? i mean is he a world beater yet? no but he is young and has talent, not sure what the kid has done that was so bad everyone convinced he is garbage? i thought out of college he could play in this league, he seemed smart enough and dedicated enough from all the interviews i saw before the draft to make me think he could accomplish some things..beats me? seems like ppl were willing to give bradfords garbage ass tons of leeway but wanna crush this kid before he has even had a chance...

[2daBank]

thoughts on 49ers -3 vs a backup qb? I thought line would move but nothing so far, Stanton confirmed to start for AZ

pretty sure that line was made with the educated assumption that palmer wouldnt play. zona favs if palmer playing so think they knew he was unlikely to bounce back from a nerve injury so quickly.. i dont trust sf offense enough as of yet to play them against a really good secondary.. i know stanton didnt do anything all that impressive last week but think arians likes him and thinks of him as the long term answer, arians a good offensive mind so if he thinks highly of stanton i dont have any reason to doubt him. maybe stanton looks better with another gm under his belt and a full week of practice with the 1st team..

[4TH AND STUPID]

i mentioned somewhere i dont really understand why EJ gets so much hate? i mean is he a world beater yet? no but he is young and has talent, not sure what the kid has done that was so bad everyone convinced he is garbage? i thought out of college he could play in this league, he seemed smart enough and dedicated enough from all the interviews i saw before the draft to make me think he could accomplish some things..beats me? seems like ppl were willing to give bradfords garbage ass tons of leeway but wanna crush this kid before he has even had a chance...

his accuracy is terrible, his pre-snap read is terrible, and his mechanics are terrible, particularly his footwork. looks like hes shotput chucking the ball when he throws. every game he misses at least 3 easy passes that a 8th grader would make. I follow the bills closely. The bills are a system team with great running backs, great playmakers, and a top 7 defense. Any qb could step in and win with that roster (see Thaddeus lewis, jeff tuel, 2013). E.J will be exposed when the bills are playing from behind. He will not survive the whole year. I'm not being a troll or anything just letting you know and saving your money one day.

[Totolover1409]

Rams is a sharp play

[2daBank]

his accuracy is terrible, his pre-snap read is terrible, and his mechanics are terrible, particularly his footwork. looks like hes shotput chucking the ball when he throws. every game he misses at least 3 easy passes that a 8th grader would make. I follow the bills closely. The bills are a system team with great running backs, great playmakers, and a top 7 defense. Any qb could step in and win with that roster (see Thaddeus lewis, jeff tuel, 2013). E.J will be exposed when the bills are playing from behind. He will not survive the whole year. I'm not being a troll or anything just letting you know and saving your money one day.

Right on. You the 1st person that ever gave a answer other than "Manuel garbage", I think what he can do does fit the system he plays in but yea the team full of weapons. He hasn't even played a full season of pro ball so I'm just not as quick to dismiss him not being able to play in the league, you have prob watched him more than me and unlike most clowns I respect ur opinion, I've seen far worse tho..