Trying to collect my thoughts and get some input
Several games jumping out:
SD/ARI 45- On the over. SD ranked 29th in pass defense and 12th in run defense last year. Ari ranked 1st in rush defense and 14th in pass defense. Arizona, having lost three of their premier front seven should drop significantly in both run defense and the pass rush. With strong receivers and a veteran quarterback, Arizona will likely be a strong passing attack against a weak San Diego secondary. San Diego, ranked 4th in pass yards last year, will take advantage of the weak pass rush to generate plays.
Pit/Cle 41.5- Leaning under. Cleveland ranked 18th in rush defense and 8th in pass defense last year, with Pittsburgh ranked 9th against pass and 21st against run. Both teams have improved defenses over the off season. I am leaning under because of the quarterback situation in Cleveland, and the Steelers propensity to focus on the run. Pittsburgh is weak against the pass, which is the weak part of the Cleveland offense.
NO/ATL 51.5- Leaning over. Atlanta ranked 21st against the pass and 31st against the rush. New Orleans ranked 2nd against the pass and 19th against the run. Julio Jones has performed well, and Atlanta always plays well at home. Worried about the strong secondary of the saint. Saints should put up points as normal. Might lay off this game as I am concerned about Atlanta's offense production against a high total
Car/TB 39- Leaning Under. Carolina ranking 2nd against the rush and 6th against the pass in 2013, TB ranking 15th and 17th respectively. Both teams strong up front on defense, Tampa with a weak offensive live. Cam newton questionable for the game, but I don't know if he is the real difference maker here. Tampa is playing with a weak line against a strong rush, I don't know how many points they will put up.
NYJ/Oak 40 leaning under. Jets Ranking 3rd against the rush and 22nd against the pass, Raiders ranking 28th and 13th. Oakland is starting a rookie qb, which reduces some of the risk of the weak Jets secondary. Jets rush defense should hope to hold Darren McFadden. Geno Smith less than reliable
Several games jumping out:
SD/ARI 45- On the over. SD ranked 29th in pass defense and 12th in run defense last year. Ari ranked 1st in rush defense and 14th in pass defense. Arizona, having lost three of their premier front seven should drop significantly in both run defense and the pass rush. With strong receivers and a veteran quarterback, Arizona will likely be a strong passing attack against a weak San Diego secondary. San Diego, ranked 4th in pass yards last year, will take advantage of the weak pass rush to generate plays.
Pit/Cle 41.5- Leaning under. Cleveland ranked 18th in rush defense and 8th in pass defense last year, with Pittsburgh ranked 9th against pass and 21st against run. Both teams have improved defenses over the off season. I am leaning under because of the quarterback situation in Cleveland, and the Steelers propensity to focus on the run. Pittsburgh is weak against the pass, which is the weak part of the Cleveland offense.
NO/ATL 51.5- Leaning over. Atlanta ranked 21st against the pass and 31st against the rush. New Orleans ranked 2nd against the pass and 19th against the run. Julio Jones has performed well, and Atlanta always plays well at home. Worried about the strong secondary of the saint. Saints should put up points as normal. Might lay off this game as I am concerned about Atlanta's offense production against a high total
Car/TB 39- Leaning Under. Carolina ranking 2nd against the rush and 6th against the pass in 2013, TB ranking 15th and 17th respectively. Both teams strong up front on defense, Tampa with a weak offensive live. Cam newton questionable for the game, but I don't know if he is the real difference maker here. Tampa is playing with a weak line against a strong rush, I don't know how many points they will put up.
NYJ/Oak 40 leaning under. Jets Ranking 3rd against the rush and 22nd against the pass, Raiders ranking 28th and 13th. Oakland is starting a rookie qb, which reduces some of the risk of the weak Jets secondary. Jets rush defense should hope to hold Darren McFadden. Geno Smith less than reliable