i am taking the NFL football season and breaking it into 4 quarters. I am looking to bet the entire season not just a few games so i wanted to look at each teams entire schedule. To do this efficiently it needs to be broken down into half or quarters because it is a long season, you cant just dissect it by looking at it as a whole. So I am focusing on weeks 1-4. I bet last season and took a look at weeks 1-4 team records along with the odds. I will use the top 2 teams from last season as an example. Seattle and Denver.
Seattle 2013 season:
@car -4 covered
v SF -3 covered
v jax -19 covered
@hou -1.5 covered
ok so here seattle is 4-0 overall and 4-0 ats. they were preseason picks to go to the superbowl and now it has been some what validated by them starting strong at 4-0. also, look at the numbers they are posting. -4, -3,-19, -1.5. aside from the jax game they are really low. the next 4 weeks are very interesting.
wk5 @indy -3 lost
v tenn -13 NO cover
@az -6.5 covered
@stL -12 NO cover
so for this 2nd quarter of the season, they went 3-1 straight up but 1-3 ats. look at the numbers they post here -13, and -12, and they both fall, I feel that this is because the cat is out of the bag, so much money was getting thrown on them driving the lines too high, but it doesnt matter how high the lines were at the point, the people were on SEA no matter what. I remember I bet those tenn and stl games it didnt matter what the line was we were going to bet them because they were 7-1 and looking strong. so if your a rookie bettor following seattle your probably done by this point but lets look at weeks 9-12 the 3rd quarter of their season which includes a bye.
wk9 v TB-15 NO cover
@atl -5 cover
v minn -12 cover
BYE
after back to back road games in weeks 7 and 8 they get a home game v TB who was buried at that point. so again it didnt matter what the line was people would still bet them, and the line makers blurt out a -15 and it doesnt hit. then the -5 @atl was terribly low I remember betting it last year thinking how can seattle only be 5 pt fav at ATL who was also done at that point, its because they had lost back to back weeks ats, so a lot less people were betting them.
the last quarter of their season was:
v nola -6 COvered
@SF +2.5 dogs LOST
@NYG -9.5 covered
v AZ -10 LOST
the last quarter they go 2-2 straight up and 2-2 ats which is expected they had clinched a playoff spot already and were looking to wrap up home field.
So I am sharing this with you all to show that it is a long season and I also want to talk NFL with anyone who has opinions about this. I have looked at every teams 1st 4 games and some of the matchups really jump out at you I cant wait to see the lines that week.
Teams that have favorable matchups weeks 1-4:
New England
SF
New Orleans
Baltimore
SD
HOU- they just have an easy all around schedule
STL
WASH
TB
CLEV
Seattle 2013 season:
@car -4 covered
v SF -3 covered
v jax -19 covered
@hou -1.5 covered
ok so here seattle is 4-0 overall and 4-0 ats. they were preseason picks to go to the superbowl and now it has been some what validated by them starting strong at 4-0. also, look at the numbers they are posting. -4, -3,-19, -1.5. aside from the jax game they are really low. the next 4 weeks are very interesting.
wk5 @indy -3 lost
v tenn -13 NO cover
@az -6.5 covered
@stL -12 NO cover
so for this 2nd quarter of the season, they went 3-1 straight up but 1-3 ats. look at the numbers they post here -13, and -12, and they both fall, I feel that this is because the cat is out of the bag, so much money was getting thrown on them driving the lines too high, but it doesnt matter how high the lines were at the point, the people were on SEA no matter what. I remember I bet those tenn and stl games it didnt matter what the line was we were going to bet them because they were 7-1 and looking strong. so if your a rookie bettor following seattle your probably done by this point but lets look at weeks 9-12 the 3rd quarter of their season which includes a bye.
wk9 v TB-15 NO cover
@atl -5 cover
v minn -12 cover
BYE
after back to back road games in weeks 7 and 8 they get a home game v TB who was buried at that point. so again it didnt matter what the line was people would still bet them, and the line makers blurt out a -15 and it doesnt hit. then the -5 @atl was terribly low I remember betting it last year thinking how can seattle only be 5 pt fav at ATL who was also done at that point, its because they had lost back to back weeks ats, so a lot less people were betting them.
the last quarter of their season was:
v nola -6 COvered
@SF +2.5 dogs LOST
@NYG -9.5 covered
v AZ -10 LOST
the last quarter they go 2-2 straight up and 2-2 ats which is expected they had clinched a playoff spot already and were looking to wrap up home field.
So I am sharing this with you all to show that it is a long season and I also want to talk NFL with anyone who has opinions about this. I have looked at every teams 1st 4 games and some of the matchups really jump out at you I cant wait to see the lines that week.
Teams that have favorable matchups weeks 1-4:
New England
SF
New Orleans
Baltimore
SD
HOU- they just have an easy all around schedule
STL
WASH
TB
CLEV