NFL - Situational Plays - SDQL

[JMon]

Consider the Ravens

Fade a road dog of 10-3.5; a poor rushing team against a good rushing defense

SDQL:

A and 10>=line>=3.5 and 95>tA(rushing yards)>=70 and 95>=oA(o:rushing yards)>=75 and 2003<=season

Consider the Giants and Bengals

Fade a home team in Nov. off a road loss (a margin of more than 7 and 28 or less) and did not cover the spread, a fav or dog of no more than 7 against an oppt on less than 13 day rest.

SDQL:

H and p:ATSL and month=11 and p:AL and 2006<=season and line<7.5 and -29<p:margin<-7 and o:rest<13

[JMon]

I isolated a small, yet perfect situation which I think is rather interesting. Not saying this is going to win, but worth a look. Since the 1993 season, winning dogs (77%WP or more) in the second half of the season; revenging a road loss is a good fade.

SDQL:

line>=3.5 and 20>=week >= 7 and WP >= 77 and 1993<=season and P:AL

0-18-0 (-15.33, 0.0%)

0-17-1 (-9.61, 0.0%)

[Cutler'sThumb]

Here's one from the spreadsheet that is very similar, just casting a larger net (thanks JMon): Seahawks -8.5

9>=line >= 3.5 and 20>=week >= 7 and WP >= 77 and 1993<=season

[Mako-SBR]

Here's one I played last year and will be playing every year, it may wind up being the only long-term scenario-based play I keep because I can't seem to exceed 50-55% in the NFL with the queries I have:

HF and week=17 and DIV and day=Sunday and snf=0 and -9<=line<=-3 and season>=2006

Basically you're taking home faves in division games the last week of the season provided that the line isn't ridiculous, or the matchup isn't un-blanaced in favor of the away team.

Historically it works regardless of whether the home team "needs" the game or not, which is strange as you would have though that faves resting starters for the playoffs would cause losses, but regardless it's something I've looked forward to all season.

BOL guys, hope you all made money this season!!!

[JMon]

BOL guys, hope you all made money this season!!!

Had to chuckle a bit on this quote and your last posted query. Just the way it's been in NFL for me. From my end, NFL and SDQL is officially currently on overhaul and is NOT playable. Think I have roughly dozen of over 200 queries that have withstand time of current rule, coach, player changes that have been made. NFL is now current season or past season queries only..IMO. Enough said.

[nash13]

Can not agree more, all my research shows that NFL is the least favorable sport to play with SDQL.

[nash13]

Can not agree more, all my research shows that NFL is the least favorable sport to play with SDQL.

I have to correct myself. NFL has some value. Bot low volume.
Here are my results from 2014 plays (1.91 odds)
Overview:
All Picks with double plays and contradictions:
ALL: 218-157 (P:41,38 Y:11,03% SR:58,13%)
ATS: 143-107 (P:23,13 Y:9,25% SR:57,20%)
TOT: 75-50 (P:18,25 Y:14,60% SR:60,00%)

Without Contradictions (Double Plays allowed)
ALL: 165-105 (P:45,15 Y:16,72% SR:61,11%)
ATS: 102-68 (P:24,82 Y:14,60% SR:60,00%)
TOT: 63-37 (P:20,33 Y:20,33% SR:63,00%)

Single Plays only, Contradictions and Double Plays eliminated
ALL: 85-55 (P:22,35 Y:15,96% SR:60,71%)
ATS: 52-26 (P:21,32 Y:27,33% SR:66,67%)
TOT: 33-29 (P:1,03 Y:1,66% SR:53,23%)

My Own System (Double Plays allowed, Contradictions disallowed, Only 3-Star Plays)
ALL: 76-47 (P:22,16 Y:18,02% SR:61,79%)
ATS: 50-32 (P:13,50 Y:16,46% SR:60,98%)
TOT: 26-15 (P:8,66 Y:21,12% SR:63,41%)

[perryhs]

I have to correct myself. NFL has some value. Bot low volume.
Here are my results from 2014 plays (1.91 odds)

Without Contradictions (Double Plays allowed)
ALL: 165-105 (P:45,15 Y:16,72% SR:61,11%)
ATS: 102-68 (P:24,82 Y:14,60% SR:60,00%)
TOT: 63-37 (P:20,33 Y:20,33% SR:63,00%)


My Own System (Double Plays allowed, Contradictions disallowed, Only 3-Star Plays)
ALL: 76-47 (P:22,16 Y:18,02% SR:61,79%)
ATS: 50-32 (P:13,50 Y:16,46% SR:60,98%)
TOT: 26-15 (P:8,66 Y:21,12% SR:63,41%)

You did great job,thank you

[nash13]

Points <= 9 and points >= 30 and site = away